Political Wire

  • Front Page
  • Members
    • Subscribe
    • Sign In
  • Trending
  • Resources
    • Politics Extra
    • Political Job Hunt
    • Political Dictionary
    • Electoral Vote Map
  • Advertise
  • Newsletter
  • Contact Us
Members should sign in for the full experience.

How the Polls Are Changing

June 22, 2024 at 2:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Derivative Polling tracks changes in polls from the same pollster.

“Rather than combining every poll under the sun, with complex corrections for pollster reliability, bias, state effects, economic fundamentals or whatnot, this tracker instead focusses on changes from one poll to the next by the same pollster.“

It’s updated daily.

Filed Under: Polling

How Pollsters Are Trying to Fix Their Polls

June 15, 2024 at 9:46 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Candidates and voters alike are wondering whether they can trust the polls ahead of November’s elections,” Axios reports.

“The 2016 and 2020 elections rocked public confidence in polling after many underestimated the amount of support for former President Trump. Meanwhile, pollsters are having to adapt their methods, with fewer respondents answering the phone.”

Filed Under: Polling

New Pollster Ratings

June 12, 2024 at 11:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Silver has released new pollster ratings which differ from the methodology used by his old home, FiveThirtyEight.

“The top-rated pollsters — Selzer & Co. and The New York Times/Siena College — will be familiar to longtime readers.”

“For the record, though, eligible polls in the 2024 presidential primaries missed the final margin between the top two candidates by an average of 9.7 percentage points. That isn’t very accurate, obviously — but it’s consistent with the long-term average error in presidential primary polls since 2000, which is 9.3 percentage points.”

Filed Under: Polling


You're reading the free version of Political Wire

Upgrade to a paid membership to unlock full access. The process is quick and easy. You can even use Apple Pay.

    Upgrade Now

  • ✔ Become a member to get many great benefits -- exclusive analysis, a trending news page, a private podcast, no advertising and more!
  • ✔ If you're already a member, log in for the full experience.



It’s Fine to Ignore the Polls

May 9, 2024 at 8:16 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Political Wire will always cover the latest election polls. We all love trying to discern the latest trends in the political landscape.

But that doesn’t mean you should take them so seriously.

Join now to continue reading.

Members get exclusive analysis, bonus features and no advertising. Learn more.

If you’re already a member, sign in to your account.

Filed Under: Members, Polling

Will Polls Keep Overestimating Trump’s Support?

March 16, 2024 at 10:09 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “It’s true that surveys overestimated Trump’s actual vote share in eight of the 10 states where there was enough polling for FiveThirtyEight to produce an average. And after a spate of national polls showed Biden behind Trump, the president’s campaign asserted that polling “consistently overestimates Donald Trump while underestimating President Biden.” Aides cited the results of the presidential primaries and special elections held since 2022 as proof.”

“But both are misleading indicators. That’s because the reason polling overestimated Republican margins in the primaries and special elections is unlikely to be duplicated in the general election: It was hard for pollsters to know which voters were going to show up.”

“Using polling to estimate election results requires making informed choices about the composition of the electorate. But the Republican primary electorate is much smaller and harder to predict than the much broader segment of voters likely to turn out in November for the general election.”

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign, Polling

There’s Plenty of Time for Biden to Catch Up

March 13, 2024 at 6:02 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

G. Elliot Morris: “So far, the Biden campaign’s strategy has been to publicly dismiss the polls rather than confront their bad numbers head-on. For instance, at the opening ceremony of a campaign field office in Manchester, New Hampshire, Biden disparaged polls as inaccurate and stuck using old-fashioned technology.”

“Biden is wrong about that. Despite the challenges facing the industry, polls remain as accurate as ever. But that doesn’t mean that polls taken eight months before Election Day are reliable predictors of the final outcome. My analysis of polling from past elections reveals that there is plenty of precedent for a candidate like Biden to gain enough ground to win the election. Moreover, I find there is more uncertainty in the polls now than in previous cycles, further casting doubt on the early gloomy prognostication about Biden’s odds.”

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign, Polling

FiveThirtyEight Drops Rasmussen Polls

March 8, 2024 at 5:21 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The poll aggregation and evaluation site 538, part of ABC News, dropped the right-wing polling firm Rasmussen Reports from inclusion in its polling averages and forecasts,” the Washington Post reports.

Filed Under: Polling

Trump Underperformed the Polls Again

February 28, 2024 at 8:58 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Donald Trump easily defeated Nikki Haley in the Michigan Republican primary, dominating his last remaining rival in nearly every part of the state.

But there’s were some clear warning signs in the results for the Trump campaign.

Join now to continue reading.

Members get exclusive analysis, bonus features and no advertising. Learn more.

If you’re already a member, sign in to your account.

Filed Under: Members, Polling

Trump’s Primary Results Are Not Matching Expectations

February 26, 2024 at 7:32 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Cohn: “It’s still early in the primary season, but a whiff of a possible polling error is already in the air. That’s because Donald Trump has underperformed the polls in each of the first three contests.”

“So what’s going on? We can’t say anything definitive based on the data at our disposal, but three theories are worth considering.”

“One of them… seems especially plausible and consistent with something we’ve written about before: Anti-Trump voters are highly motivated to turn out this cycle. It wouldn’t mean the polls will be wrong in November, but it would be good news for Democrats nonetheless.”

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign, Polling

How to Make Sense of the Polls

February 4, 2024 at 4:38 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Dan Pfeiffer: “These days, partisans gravitate to the polls that support their chosen narrative. Trump ‘truths’ the polls that show him winning. Haley supporters and Biden adherents tout the ones that show Biden winning. I love seeing polls that show Biden up. However, it’s best not to get too worked up over an individual poll, and instead look at the overall average and broader trends. That advice, of course, is hard to adhere to in an election with so much at stake.”

“The broader trends of the recent polling tell me two things. First, Biden, at minimum, has stabilized, and things may be looking up as people’s views on the economy improve. Second, the polls are consistent with what we have long assumed — this is a very close and winnable race that will come down to less than 100,000 votes across a small handful of states. Our task is the same if the polls show Biden up by 2 or down by 5.”

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign, Polling

The Best Pollsters

January 25, 2024 at 12:21 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

FiveThirtyEight has updated its pollster scorecard.

“The New York Times/Siena College, for example, is the most accurate pollster in America. Due to its accuracy and transparency, it and ABC News/Washington Post are also the only two pollsters with a three-star rating.”

Filed Under: Polling

Bonus Quote of the Day

January 23, 2024 at 8:37 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Every losing campaign complains about the polling. When it’s one poll or one outlet’s series of polls, maybe you can make the case they are garbage. In fact, most public polls are trash. But when every poll shows the same trends, the griping comes across as desperate and pure spin to give their supporters hope not to throw in the towel before voting even starts.” 

— GOP strategist Dave Carney, quoted by the Washington Examiner.

Filed Under: Polling

A Good Night for Polling

January 16, 2024 at 11:24 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nathan Gonzales: “Despite seven years of hand-wringing about polling, it was a pretty good night for surveys. The final FiveThirtyEight average before the Iowa caucus had Trump at 52.7 percent followed by former Gov. Nikki Haley (18.7 percent), Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (15.8 percent), and Vivek Ramaswamy (6.4 percent).”

“The final results look like Trump (51 percent), DeSantis (21 percent), Haley (19 percent), and Ramaswamy (8 percent).”

“People seeking perfection from polling will quibble with the DeSantis polling versus his final result, but overall, Iowa should be considered a victory for the polling industry, especially in the context of a low-turnout caucus in extreme weather.”

Filed Under: Polling

American Pollsters Aren’t Sure They’ve Fixed Their Polls

January 3, 2024 at 11:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Economist: “As America enters a nervous election year, one thing is certain: the opinion polls will be watched closely for clues about the outcome. But how much faith should be placed in them? In the past two presidential cycles they misfired, badly underestimating support for Donald Trump each time. Mr Trump looks likely to be the Republican nominee again. In head-to-head polls he leads Joe Biden by 2.3 points on average. That suggests a toss-up. Polls conducted so far in advance of the election have generally missed by a margin far greater than Mr Trump’s current lead.”

“And Mr Trump’s voters vex pollsters: they appear to be disproportionately less likely to take part in pre-election surveys yet turn out to vote for him. Pollsters have been grappling with ways to reflect this in their numbers, but no one knows how well their adjustments will work. In a close contest, even small errors can prove critical.”

Filed Under: Polling

Be Prepared for Volatile Election Year Polling

November 27, 2023 at 2:24 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Cohn argues that recent polls showing a close race between President Biden and Donald Trump should not be dismissed like some Democrats are trying to do.

But the bigger takeaway from his piece is that there’s a lot less stability in these polls.

Join now to continue reading.

Members get exclusive analysis, bonus features and no advertising. Learn more.

If you’re already a member, sign in to your account.

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign, Members, Polling

The Crisis in Issue Polling

November 20, 2023 at 2:41 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Cohn: “If you do this exercise for previous elections, issue polling failures look more like the norm than the exception. There just aren’t many elections when you can read a pre-election poll story, line it up with the post-election story, and say that the pre-election poll captured the most important dynamics of the election…”

“With such a poor track record, there’s a case that ‘issue’ polling faces a far graver crisis than ‘horse race’ polling. I can imagine many public pollsters recoiling at that assertion, but they can’t prove it wrong, either. The crisis facing issue polling is almost entirely non-falsifiable — just like the issue polling itself. Indeed, the fact that the problems with issue polling are so hard to quantify is probably why problems have been allowed to fester. Most pollsters probably assume they’re good at issue polling; after all, unlike with horse race polls, they’re almost never demonstrably wrong.”

Filed Under: Polling

Traditional Indicators May Be Misleading

November 20, 2023 at 2:04 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Once upon a time, the “right track-wrong track” polling numbers were pretty good at testing the vulnerability of incumbents.

If voters thought the country was on the wrong track, it suggested a “throw the bums out” political environment.

Join now to continue reading.

Members get exclusive analysis, bonus features and no advertising. Learn more.

If you’re already a member, sign in to your account.

Filed Under: 2024 Campaign, Economy, Members, Polling

The Polls Weren’t That Bad

November 9, 2023 at 12:48 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

One point I made yesterday about Tuesday’s elections got some push back from readers: “Everyone loves to argue that polling is broken, but there were really no major surprises in yesterday’s races.”

Here’s why I wrote that:

Join now to continue reading.

Members get exclusive analysis, bonus features and no advertising. Learn more.

If you’re already a member, sign in to your account.

Filed Under: 2023 Campaign, Members, Polling

  • « Previous Page
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • …
  • 19
  • Next Page »

Get Smarter About Politics

Members get exclusive analysis, a trending news page, the Trial Balloon podcast, bonus newsletters and no advertising. Learn more.

Subscribe

Your Account

Sign in

Latest for Members

  • A Conspiracy Theory That Won’t Die
  • Why Elon Musk’s Third Party Is Doomed
  • Can Democrats Weaponize Trump’s Big, Beautiful Bill?
  • For Your Weekend Listening
  • Happy 249th!

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

Praise for Political Wire

“There are a lot of blogs and news sites claiming to understand politics, but only a few actually do. Political Wire is one of them.”

— Chuck Todd, host of “Meet the Press”

“Concise. Relevant. To the point. Political Wire is the first site I check when I’m looking for the latest political nugget. That pretty much says it all.”

— Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report

“Political Wire is one of only four or five sites that I check every day and sometimes several times a day, for the latest political news and developments.”

— Charlie Cook, editor of the Cook Political Report

“The big news, delicious tidbits, pearls of wisdom — nicely packaged, constantly updated… What political junkie could ask for more?”

— Larry Sabato, Center for Politics, University of Virginia

“Political Wire is a great, great site.”

— Joe Scarborough, host of MSNBC’s “Morning Joe”

“Taegan Goddard has a knack for digging out political gems that too often get passed over by the mainstream press, and for delivering the latest electoral developments in a sharp, no frills style that makes his Political Wire an addictive blog habit you don’t want to kick.”

— Arianna Huffington, founder of The Huffington Post

“Political Wire is one of the absolute must-read sites in the blogosphere.”

— Glenn Reynolds, founder of Instapundit

“I rely on Taegan Goddard’s Political Wire for straight, fair political news, he gets right to the point. It’s an eagerly anticipated part of my news reading.”

— Craig Newmark, founder of Craigslist.

Copyright © 2025 · Goddard Media LLC | Privacy Policy | Corrections Policy

Political Wire ® is a registered trademark of Goddard Media LLC