New York Times: “As younger voters, particularly young men, drifted toward Republicans over the past few years, there was some concern in the Democratic Party that they might be lost forever. That no longer seems to be the case.”

“Across the eight Senate races The Times and Siena polled, Democrats have a 30-point advantage with voters under the age of 30. When asked which candidate they trusted to handle the cost of living — which voters in this age group said was the most important issue — that margin was even wider.”

“Democrats have a 24-point edge among Latino registered voters nationally heading into the midterm elections, according to the new NBC News/Telemundo poll. But under the surface, there are distinct segments of Latino voters — differences that mirror other divides in national politics and demonstrate how ‘the Latino vote’ is more than one big bloc.”

“Like the broader electorate, Latino women lean more Democratic than Latino men do.”

“Voters are deeply dissatisfied with President Donald Trump and his Republican Party heading into the Nov. 3 midterm elections, according to an Associated Press-NORC poll, and Democrats have built a clear advantage on pressing issues such as the cost of living and healthcare over just a few months.”

“But the survey also points to a bigger problem for both parties: Few registered voters think either party is able to solve important problems or help Americans like them.”

“One key to victory in the midterm elections comes down to this question: How can each party win support from people who don’t like them?” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“More voters say they dislike both the Democratic and Republican parties than in other recent elections, the result of economic anxiety and deep dissatisfaction with politicians and government. Some 21% of the voter pool holds an unfavorable view of both parties, a recent Wall Street Journal poll found, significantly above the 13% in the 2022 midterms and about 12% in the past two presidential elections.”

“They’re fake numbers. I would beat anybody running today by 20 points. Your numbers, that you have, are fake. The pollsters are corrupt. They’re almost as corrupt as the writers.”

— President Trump, quoted by The Guardian, on his poor job approval numbers.

Dan Pfeiffer: “Midterm polls have tended to be more accurate than polls in presidential years. The polls were historically accurate in 2018 and 2022. I know everyone thinks the polls were wrong in 2022 because the Red Wave never materialized, but the polls were right. The final generic ballot average was Republican +2.5, and the result was Republican +2.7.”

“Midterm polls are more accurate because the electorate includes fewer of the less politically engaged voters who tend not to answer polls. In recent years, those voters have leaned heavily toward Trump. They were undersampled in 2016 and 2020, but because they turn out at lower rates in midterms, the polls tend to be more accurate.”

“Democrats are heading into the final stretch of the 2026 midterms with their largest lead yet in the race for Congress and President Donald Trump’s approval rating at a significant low,” NBC News reports.

“A 9-percentage-point advantage for Democrats when it comes to control of Congress is part of a steady deterioration of the political environment for Republicans. The parties started the road to this November effectively tied in the weeks after President Donald Trump returned to office last year, but independents have gradually begun to prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress. And those voters have soured on Trump and his economic policies in particular.”

Nate Silver: “So if you take the polls at face value, we’re seeing a blue wave that’s… overwhelmingly concentrated in red states. As I wrote, there’s a coherent story behind it. And the evidence for it has been consistent enough that it probably has to count as the ‘base case.'”

“But there’s also some risk here for Democrats. Precisely those groups with whom they’re making the largest gains are those where polls have most overestimated Democrats in recent years.”

“There are also potentially huge, lopsided rewards. If the map is reverting more to something pre-Trump-like, that was a map where Barack Obama won Iowa and Ohio twice. Meanwhile, in the House, Republican gerrymanders in states like Florida and Texas were implicitly premised on the GOP having made permanent gains among Hispanics.”