New Pollster Ratings

Nate Silver has released new pollster ratings which differ from the methodology used by his old home, FiveThirtyEight.

“The top-rated pollsters — Selzer & Co. and The New York Times/Siena College — will be familiar to longtime readers.”

“For the record, though, eligible polls in the 2024 presidential primaries missed the final margin between the top two candidates by an average of 9.7 percentage points. That isn’t very accurate, obviously — but it’s consistent with the long-term average error in presidential primary polls since 2000, which is 9.3 percentage points.”