Nate Silver: “The short answer is that the polls were biased again — but not to the same extent that they overestimated Joe Biden in 2020. Nor, with no clear favorite heading into Election Day, was the outcome anywhere near as much of a surprise as in 2016 (unless perhaps you were consuming too much ‘hopium’).”
“By some measures, in fact, 2024 was a considerably above-average year. The polls weren’t that far off the mark. The problem was that nearly all of them erred in the same direction, again underestimating Trump and other Republicans.”
There were some big changes in the pollster ratings.
