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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 195

Shake Up

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 195: Shake Up

The MBAs Who Won in the Midterms

November 5, 2026 · 3:21 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“An unusual force helped fuel this week’s historic Blue midterm wave: Democratic candidates with serious business credentials,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Across the U.S., candidates with experience running major companies—or working inside them—seemingly broke a curse that has sometimes plagued executives seeking office as Democrats or Independents.”

2018 Campaign

Moderate Democrats Increase Their Clout

November 4, 2026 · 10:15 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“For much of the midterm campaign, progressive Democratic insurgents commanded the spotlight in the fight to wrest control of Congress, defeating establishment incumbents in primaries, drawing enthusiastic crowds and promising to reorder their party’s priorities and remake American politics once they got to Washington,” the New York Times reports.

“But the path to Democrats’ sweeping victory this week, when they seized control of both chambers of Congress, was paved overwhelmingly by moderates who had spent months persuading voters in Republican-leaning states and competitive congressional districts that they could be trusted to govern and would deliver dissatisfied voters a practical alternative to President Trump.”

2018 Campaign, Democrats

Democrats Snagged Control Over Trump’s Judicial Picks

November 4, 2026 · 8:25 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Tuesday’s blue wave gives Democrats an unexpected foothold to leave a mark on the nation’s judicial system — including the Supreme Court,” the Washington Sun reports.

“After two years of Republicans approving President Donald Trump’s judicial picks, the Democrats in January will seize control of the confirmation process for the last two years of his presidency.”

2018 Campaign, Judiciary

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Democratic Wave Swept Statehouses Across the Country

November 4, 2026 · 4:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“The Democratic surge on Tuesday netted at least 330 state legislative seats, from New Hampshire to Arizona, giving the Democrats full control of 22 state governments and making them the majority in a dozen statehouse chambers where they had been the minority party,” the New York Times reports.

“And while Washington remains divided, Democrats will have the power to make policy on health care, voting and taxation in state capitals that for years have been far beyond their control, such as Texas, Georgia and North Carolina.”

“In Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Nevada, Democrats will hold both statehouse chambers as well as the governorship. The party was on the verge of the same ‘trifecta’ in Arizona as well.”

2018 Campaign, State House

Democratic Women Surpass 100 House Seats

November 4, 2026 · 1:15 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Women will lead more states as governors and represent more congressional districts than at any time in American history come January,” the Washington Post reports.

“The blue wave putting Democrats back in control of Congress is also creating a House Democratic caucus that looks much more like the nation, in terms of gender, than ever before. Democratic women’s gains also widen a significant gap between the number of Democratic women and Republican women in power.”

“For the first time, next year, more than 100 Democratic women will serve in the U.S. House.”

2018 Campaign, House of Representatives

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

November 3, 2026 · 6:40 am ET · Leave a Comment

“This is going to be the Armageddon of all elections. We’ve never seen anything quite like what is going to be happening on Tuesday. I truly believe this is going to define our country for a decade. Democrats are sitting on the precipice of being able to win the House, of course, but winning Senate seats that people never thought possible.”

— Former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, quoted by Politico.

2018 Campaign, Democrats

Republicans May Be Neglecting Their Most Reliable Voters

October 25, 2026 · 10:03 am ET · Leave a Comment

Washington Sun: “Two years into a Trump administration that social conservatives hoped would bring significant victories on abortion and other evangelical Christian voters’ priorities, some are unimpressed by what the president has delivered. The lack of enthusiasm has been exacerbated by a national campaign outreach strategy that seems to be targeting everybody but them.”

“The bottom line? Evangelical Christians feel overlooked.”

“The discontent among the Republican Party’s most loyal voting bloc raises an uncomfortable question ahead of Election Day: Will evangelicals remain faithful to show up when their party needs them?”

2018 Campaign, Republicans

Another Bonus Quote of the Day

October 24, 2026 · 9:17 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“After two years of chaos and cruelty and corruption and incompetence, the likes of which we have not seen in the modern era, you get a chance to say, ‘Enough is enough.'”

— Former President Barack Obama, quoted by Agence France-Presse.

2018 Campaign

Trump to Campaign in Mississippi for Hyde-Smith

October 21, 2026 · 8:07 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump will visit Mississippi next week to campaign for U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith on Monday night,” Mississippi Today reports.

Said Hyde-Smith: “We feel very good about this. It’s going to be 13 days, and we’re going to run through the tape so strong. I’m very proud of the record I have to run on. If he would like to, that would be fine.”

2018 Campaign

Trump Is Very Much on the Ballot

October 21, 2026 · 8:41 am ET · Leave a Comment

Doug Sosnik: “President Trump is calling on Americans to cast their vote as if he were ‘on the ballot.’ With less than two weeks before the election, it appears that voters will do exactly that.”

“The political environment continues to deteriorate for the GOP. Over the past month, Republicans have abandoned congressional races once considered highly competitive and have shifted resources to defending seats that once looked safe at the beginning of the year.”

“Republican losses were expected given midterm election history, but not at the level now projected.”

2018 Campaign

Polls Show a Blue Wave Down-Ballot, Too

October 20, 2026 · 4:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Ed Kilgore: “Even in an era of increasing partisan polarization and straight-ticket voting, state elections have their own logic and rhythm, in part because salient issues at the state level can be different from those prevailing nationally and also because some state pols — notably governors — are news-commanding celebrities in their own right.”

“But the national political environment still affects downballot elections if only by affecting turnout patterns. So Democrats anticipate at least modest gains in the 36 gubernatorial elections being held this year and in the 88 state legislative chambers with some or all of their members facing voters in November.”

2018 Campaign, State House

Democrats Lead in Polls and Fear the Worst

October 18, 2026 · 6:01 am ET · Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “Democratic voters and activists find themselves in an odd position less than three weeks before elections that they have been anticipating since Donald Trump won the presidency two years ago. They are eagerly consuming each new poll showing their candidates ahead in races in heavily conservative states spanning Texas, Kansas and Alaska, while simultaneously racked with anxiety that these polls — like ones they dared to believe in the past — could be leading them astray.”

”Even former president Barack Obama appears to be stressing, as he provided a reality check about Democrats’ sprawling Senate map at a private fundraiser in Virginia this month.”

2018 Campaign, Polling

Trump’s Midterm Rally Blitz Probably Won’t Work

October 14, 2026 · 10:32 am ET · Leave a Comment

Washington Monthly: “So far the president has spent almost all of October on the road… 15 rallies in 13 states. Preceding this tour was an unprecedented Republican National Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas, where he delivered two primetime addresses.” 

“Trump’s travel itinerary and rhetoric are squarely aimed at juicing turnout among his loyalists, not at persuading swing voters. This is not totally without logic; in midterm elections the president’s party often suffers a decline in base turnout. But the presidential bully pulpit does not provide a quick fix…”

“What Republicans could use to try to avoid being drowned in a Blue Wave is a few days without Donald Trump making news, but the president is too addicted to the crowds and the cameras to ever let that happen.”

2018 Campaign

Barack Obama to Campaign with Ohio Democrats

October 13, 2026 · 1:55 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Former President Barack Obama is heading to Ohio to shore up support for Democratic candidates in the Senate and governor’s races, both of which have been highly competitive and brought a flood of campaign cash into the state,” the Chicago Tribube reports.

2018 Campaign, Obama legacy

House Dems Launch Ads in Four More Trump Districts

October 13, 2026 · 8:36 am ET · Leave a Comment

“House Democrats’ campaign arm is expanding its target list just three weeks ahead of Election Day, going on the air for the first time in four more districts with coordinated ad buys with the candidates,” Politico reports.

“The move, part of $13 million in coordinated ads launching this week across 39 districts  is the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s largest reach of investments this cycle as Republicans are working to defend a slew of redder seats in the final stretch.”

2018 Campaign

Bonus Quote of the Day

October 13, 2026 · 8:31 am ET · Leave a Comment

“They’re expecting a blue wave. It’s starting to feel overhyped. Dems are going to win 20 seats? I don’t know. It doesn’t feel like that to me.”

— A moderate House Democrat in a close race, quoted by Politico.

2018 Campaign

GOP Scrambles to Stop Steep Midterm Losses

October 12, 2026 · 5:12 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The Republican Party’s midterm campaign has turned into a triage operation just three weeks out from November, as officials race to avert losses in a string of once-safe seats that they increasingly fear could cost them total control of Congress,” CNN reports.

“The worsening landscape has alarmed GOP operatives across several battleground states, forcing the party to pour resources into traditionally red districts and states at the expense of their once-expansive ambitions in Democratic areas.”

“And after months of pressing President Donald Trump to ramp up his travel on behalf of key candidates, some Republicans now worry he’s grown so unpopular that his presence on the campaign trail may in some cases be doing more harm than good.”

2018 Campaign, Republicans

Trump Could Face a New Threat in January

October 11, 2026 · 6:56 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“In his six years in the White House, President Donald Trump has never had to contend with a Democratic Senate majority — but that could change in January,” the Washington Post reports.

“Senate Republicans are staring down the prospect of losing control of the chamber in the November midterm elections — and are sounding the alarm that it could be a disaster for Trump’s final two years.”

“Republicans have braced for months for Democrats to retake the House. But recent polling suggests Democrats could also capture the Senate, giving them full control of Congress — once an almost-unthinkable prospect.”

2018 Campaign, Senate

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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