Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 190
Trump Is Everywhere
“President Donald Trump said Thursday that the United States will not attack Iran before the Nov. 3 midterm election, explicitly tying the timing of potential further military action to the domestic political calendar,” CNBC reports.
Said Trump: “We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections.”
“If Democrats make big gains in the midterm elections in four weeks, it may not only be because their most loyal voters come out in force, or because their candidates have converted Republican voters to their cause,” the New York Times reports.
“Instead, the Democrats’ dream blue wave could come from Republicans who sour on President Trump and stay home. It already has a name: the red undertow.”
“Across the country, signs are emerging of an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans, even among those who consider themselves likely to vote… Volunteers are not showing up to door-knock. And many voters say they are tuning this election out.”
“Republican super PACs are flooding the airwaves in once-safe states, and pulling down ads for races that look like lost causes. President Trump, his approval ratings near record lows, is popping up in some of America’s reddest states,” Axios reports.
“The polls showing Democrats headed toward a blue wave on Nov. 3 may not be quite right. But money — and how campaigns and PACs spend it — rarely lies. Nor do the contrails of Air Force One.”
Aaron Blake: “It has become abundantly clear that Republicans in tough races aren’t especially eager to campaign with President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm election.”
“Few of them showed up to Trump’s midterm convention last month. His travel schedule since then has rather curiously featured lower-tier states like Alabama, Oklahoma and New York and only a handful of real battleground races. And even in Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott is skipping Trump’s upcoming rally (citing scheduling conflicts, of course).”
“Trump increasingly appears rather sensitive about this dynamic — which makes sense, given he’s latched onto the theory that he alone can push his party to victory in less than four weeks, despite his low approval numbers.”
“He went on a tear about his rallies on Tuesday, bringing it up at least five separate times.”
“Republicans have dominated power in the states for years: They’ve held a majority of the nation’s governors’ offices and have had control in a majority of state legislatures going back to when President Barack Obama was in office,” the Washington Post reports.
“That could change this November. In addition to control of Congress, many state lawmakers and governors are on the ballot in the midterm elections, and Democrats are eyeing big wins.”
“A Washington Post analysis finds Democrats could break up full Republican control in as many as six states and win unified control in as many as seven of their own. That means Democrats could rewrite policy on redistricting, abortion, climate, education and taxes in more states than ever in the Trump era.”
“President Donald Trump might be in a political hole, but his brand of conservative populist nationalism is flourishing across the globe,” Stephen Collinson reports.
“Rising star Flávio Bolsonaro’s shock win in the first round of Brazil’s presidential election Sunday bolstered Trump’s project of remaking the Western Hemisphere in his political image.”
“Populist right-wingers are also on the march in Europe, fueled by the same failures of foreign leaders to tackle the cost of living and deliver promised change that are haunting U.S. Republicans as the midterm elections draw near.”
The Guardian: U.S., Israeli and European far-right figures to gather for conference in Israel.
“With a month to go before the midterm elections, the U.S. map keeps shifting in Democrats’ favor. Senate seats in states that President Trump won comfortably are now seen as tossups and House seats that he carried by double digits are in danger of flipping,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“At the same time, Democrats are struggling to coalesce around an ideological platform and face a steep financial disadvantage to Republicans. In some blue-leaning states, Senate GOP candidates are staging strong challenges, giving Republicans hope of potentially tempering any Democratic gains elsewhere—and forcing Democrats to devote money and energy to defending their home turf.”
Los Angeles Times: “Rather than prioritizing visits to battleground districts, which will decide which party controls Congress, Trump is rallying in Republican strongholds such as Texas, Oklahoma and Alabama, betting that his presence will be enough to energize a base that may be thinking about sitting out the election because his name isn’t on the ballot.”
“During the first political rally of his monthlong midterm campaign season, President Trump dangled the promise of cash, played news clips, introduced the former professional basketball player Dennis Rodman, presented infographics on his endorsement success rate, pulled supporters onstage, including one of his White House aides — all while asking his most faithful supporters to pretend that he is on that ballot in November,” the New York Times reports.
“It was over the top, even for a showman.”
“Mr. Trump served up reliable red meat, warning the crowd about socialists, open borders and rising crime if Democrats take majority control of either chamber of Congress in November. But he was largely preaching to his most fervent fans, not the voters he will need to elect or re-elect a slate of Republicans fighting in states from Alaska to Maine. He knew it.”
New York Times: “Republicans in Congress this week spent their last hours in the Capitol before the midterm elections pushing a series of meant-to-fail votes that they hoped could signal to voters that they were at least trying to address widespread concerns about the high cost of living. It was a familiar pre-election exercise made more urgent this year because those Republicans are battling stiff headwinds, including economic concerns and President Trump’s sagging approval ratings, in their battle to maintain control of Congress.”
“But they emerged with no meaningful progress on a long list of issues weighing on their constituents, leaving some wondering — if not openly doubting — whether they had done enough to persuade voters to keep them in power.”
“Staring down his lowest approval numbers at any point in office, President Donald Trump is hitting the road for the next month, he says, in hopes of boosting Republican turnout in the midterm elections,” the Washington Post reports.
Said Trump: “They like to say, ‘Oh, nobody wants him.’ Well, everybody that has me wins.”
New York Times: Trump plays defense in midterm tour across Republican strongholds.
Cook Political Report: “Democrats could make gains across the country in critical states this November, potentially giving them a majority of governorships for the first time since 2010.”
“We are moving two more governors’ races in favor of Democrats in Florida and Texas, further expanding their political map as the party takes advantage of President Donald Trump’s poor approval ratings in races up and down the ballot.”
“Cash-flush Republicans are still favored in both pricey states, which we now rate as Lean Republican, but given the grim political environment for the GOP, we can’t rule out the possibility of an upset in one or both contests, even in states Trump carried by double digits just two years ago.”
The Economist: “On the night of the midterm elections in 2018, Nancy Pelosi, preparing to reclaim her position as the Speaker of the House of Representatives, said Democrats’ victory was about two things: restoring Congress as a check to Donald Trump, then in his first term, and stopping ‘assaults’ on health care.”
“The year before, Republicans had attempted to repeal Barack Obama’s signature health-care law, the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Democrats jumped on the issue; one analysis found that it was the most common topic of their ads in the months before the election.”
“Bernie Sanders is cracking open his war chest,” Politico reports.
“For months, the Vermont senator criss-crossed the country vaulting progressives to a series of primary wins. Now, he’s dipping into his substantial campaign coffers as part of a broader effort to propel battleground Democrats over the finish line in November.”
“Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for Senate in Texas, told a group of conservative donors and lobbyists last week that President Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas had hurt Mr. Paxton politically,” the New York Times reports.
“Iowa is on the verge of a farm crisis that threatens to wreck the agricultural heart of the state and hurt the fortunes of Republicans at the top of the midterm ticket, GOP strategists acknowledge,” Axios reports.
“Democrats could win in several once-reliably Republican states in November, but President Trump’s policies have caused such severe financial problems for farmers — especially those who grow corn — that Iowa appears particularly vulnerable.”
“Five weeks out from the midterms, Republicans are panicking over prices — and apparently over the president, too,” the New York Times reports.
“In Iowa, Michigan and Ohio, the party’s Senate candidates have urged President Trump to bring an end to the Iran war. In Kansas, an incumbent senator in an unexpectedly tough re-election fight has admonished the administration over immigration raids. Just about every Republican wishes Mr. Trump would just focus on the economy.”
“Instead, he spent last week threatening to escalate the war — a move that could further drive up the prices of gas and diesel fuel.”
“With less than six weeks to go until Election Day, the sentiment among Republicans is shifting from nervous to fatalistic, as a pileup of bad news has many convinced they are heading toward an electoral disaster,” Time reports.
“The warning signs are coming in quickly from across the map—much on it from red states where President Trump won comfortably just two years ago.”
NewsNation: Trump’s polls sink further in warning sign for GOP.
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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