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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 189

Navigating the Nonsense

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 189: Navigating the Nonsense

Trump Puts On a Show for an Audience That’s Already Sold

October 2, 2026 · 6:07 am ET · Leave a Comment

“During the first political rally of his monthlong midterm campaign season, President Trump dangled the promise of cash, played news clips, introduced the former professional basketball player Dennis Rodman, presented infographics on his endorsement success rate, pulled supporters onstage, including one of his White House aides — all while asking his most faithful supporters to pretend that he is on that ballot in November,” the New York Times reports.

“It was over the top, even for a showman.”

“Mr. Trump served up reliable red meat, warning the crowd about socialists, open borders and rising crime if Democrats take majority control of either chamber of Congress in November. But he was largely preaching to his most fervent fans, not the voters he will need to elect or re-elect a slate of Republicans fighting in states from Alaska to Maine. He knew it.”

2018 Campaign

Congress Leaves with a Whimper

October 1, 2026 · 4:44 pm ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Republicans in Congress this week spent their last hours in the Capitol before the midterm elections pushing a series of meant-to-fail votes that they hoped could signal to voters that they were at least trying to address widespread concerns about the high cost of living. It was a familiar pre-election exercise made more urgent this year because those Republicans are battling stiff headwinds, including economic concerns and President Trump’s sagging approval ratings, in their battle to maintain control of Congress.”

“But they emerged with no meaningful progress on a long list of issues weighing on their constituents, leaving some wondering — if not openly doubting — whether they had done enough to persuade voters to keep them in power.”

2018 Campaign

Trump Starts Campaign Swing in Red States

October 1, 2026 · 3:28 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Staring down his lowest approval numbers at any point in office, President Donald Trump is hitting the road for the next month, he says, in hopes of boosting Republican turnout in the midterm elections,” the Washington Post reports.

Said Trump: “They like to say, ‘Oh, nobody wants him.’ Well, everybody that has me wins.”

New York Times: Trump plays defense in midterm tour across Republican strongholds.

2018 Campaign

Florida and Texas Governor’s Races Are Competitive

October 1, 2026 · 11:37 am ET · Leave a Comment

Cook Political Report: “Democrats could make gains across the country in critical states this November, potentially giving them a majority of governorships for the first time since 2010.”

“We are moving two more governors’ races in favor of Democrats in Florida and Texas, further expanding their political map as the party takes advantage of President Donald Trump’s poor approval ratings in races up and down the ballot.”

“Cash-flush Republicans are still favored in both pricey states, which we now rate as Lean Republican, but given the grim political environment for the GOP, we can’t rule out the possibility of an upset in one or both contests, even in states Trump carried by double digits just two years ago.”

2018 Campaign, State House

What’s Even More Politically Toxic Than High Gas Prices?

October 1, 2026 · 10:32 am ET · Leave a Comment

The Economist: “On the night of the midterm elections in 2018, Nancy Pelosi, preparing to reclaim her position as the Speaker of the House of Representatives, said Democrats’ victory was about two things: restoring Congress as a check to Donald Trump, then in his first term, and stopping ‘assaults’ on health care.”

“The year before, Republicans had attempted to repeal Barack Obama’s signature health-care law, the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Democrats jumped on the issue; one analysis found that it was the most common topic of their ads in the months before the election.”

2018 Campaign, Democrats, Health Care

Bernie Sanders Ramps Up His Midterm Play

September 30, 2026 · 8:45 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Bernie Sanders is cracking open his war chest,” Politico reports.

“For months, the Vermont senator criss-crossed the country vaulting progressives to a series of primary wins. Now, he’s dipping into his substantial campaign coffers as part of a broader effort to propel battleground Democrats over the finish line in November.”

2018 Campaign

Ken Paxton Privately Said Trump’s Convention Hurt Him

September 30, 2026 · 5:54 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Ken Paxton, the Republican nominee for Senate in Texas, told a group of conservative donors and lobbyists last week that President Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas had hurt Mr. Paxton politically,” the New York Times reports.

2018 Campaign, Senate

Farm Crisis Fears Grip GOP in Iowa

September 29, 2026 · 6:32 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Iowa is on the verge of a farm crisis that threatens to wreck the agricultural heart of the state and hurt the fortunes of Republicans at the top of the midterm ticket, GOP strategists acknowledge,” Axios reports.

“Democrats could win in several once-reliably Republican states in November, but President Trump’s policies have caused such severe financial problems for farmers — especially those who grow corn — that Iowa appears particularly vulnerable.”

2018 Campaign, State House

Who’s Winning the Race for Congress?

September 28, 2026 · 5:24 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Five weeks out from the midterms, Republicans are panicking over prices — and apparently over the president, too,” the New York Times reports.

“In Iowa, Michigan and Ohio, the party’s Senate candidates have urged President Trump to bring an end to the Iran war. In Kansas, an incumbent senator in an unexpectedly tough re-election fight has admonished the administration over immigration raids. Just about every Republican wishes Mr. Trump would just focus on the economy.”

“Instead, he spent last week threatening to escalate the war — a move that could further drive up the prices of gas and diesel fuel.”

2018 Campaign

GOP Panic Sets in Over Prospects of a Massive Blue Wave

September 27, 2026 · 1:34 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“With less than six weeks to go until Election Day, the sentiment among Republicans is shifting from nervous to fatalistic, as a pileup of bad news has many convinced they are heading toward an electoral disaster,” Time reports.

“The warning signs are coming in quickly from across the map—much on it from red states where President Trump won comfortably just two years ago.”

NewsNation: Trump’s polls sink further in warning sign for GOP.

2018 Campaign

House Democrats Plan Vast Oversight of Trump

September 27, 2026 · 6:18 am ET · Leave a Comment

“House Democrats are preparing a vast oversight agenda, with investigations of President Donald Trump, his family and his administration if the party sweeps control of the chamber from Republicans in the November elections,” the Associated Press reports.

“The undertaking is as robust as it is daunting, spanning several House committees. With majority power comes bigger budgets and staff, and the ability to investigate, subpoena and potentially course-correct what the Democrats say are widespread corruption and abuses of power. Impeachment of the Republican president and Cabinet officials is not off the table.”

2018 Campaign, House of Representatives

White House Defends Taxpayer-Funded Trump Ad

September 25, 2026 · 5:49 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Democrats are demanding a U.S. government-funded, campaign-style ad promoting President Trump be pulled as it airs weeks before the midterms, while the White House argues it’s a public service announcement,” Axios reports.

“Federal agencies routinely spend taxpayer dollars on public service campaigns. Democrats argue using federal funds for a video that looks like political advertising crosses a legal red line.”

CNN: White House airs government-funded ad praising Trump.

2018 Campaign, White House

The Republicans Are Bolting From Trump

September 25, 2026 · 3:24 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“A few tentative displays of independence among Republicans have expanded in recent days into a stampede, as candidates furiously distance themselves from President Trump ahead of the midterm elections,” The Atlantic reports.

Said one Texas-based political consultant: “This is shaping up to be a nightmare political environment for every Republican, everywhere—period, full stop.”

“Noting that gas prices across the country are on average $4.50 a gallon, the consultant described the atmosphere as ‘a fucking disaster for anyone in a competitive race.'”

2018 Campaign, Republicans

Three Big Questions as GOP Nears Moment of Truth

September 25, 2026 · 1:23 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“With midterms 39 days away and the outlook for President Trump’s party looking increasingly bleak, top Republicans say they’re focused on three big questions for the final stretch,” Axios reports.

  • “Are their attack ads working? Republicans expect a wave of private polling in early October to reveal whether their massive financial advantage is cutting into Democrats’ leads.”
  • “Who gets cut loose? Republicans concede they’ll have to make painful spending decisions by early October.”
  • “What does Trump do? The president and his political team remain one of the midterms’ biggest question marks. Trump’s team said early this year that he’d campaign weekly for GOP candidates. That didn’t happen.”

2018 Campaign, Republicans, Senate

A Blue Wave Mostly in Red States?

September 24, 2026 · 12:11 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Nate Silver: “So if you take the polls at face value, we’re seeing a blue wave that’s… overwhelmingly concentrated in red states. As I wrote, there’s a coherent story behind it. And the evidence for it has been consistent enough that it probably has to count as the ‘base case.'”

“But there’s also some risk here for Democrats. Precisely those groups with whom they’re making the largest gains are those where polls have most overestimated Democrats in recent years.”

“There are also potentially huge, lopsided rewards. If the map is reverting more to something pre-Trump-like, that was a map where Barack Obama won Iowa and Ohio twice. Meanwhile, in the House, Republican gerrymanders in states like Florida and Texas were implicitly premised on the GOP having made permanent gains among Hispanics.”

2018 Campaign, Polling

Chart of the Day

September 23, 2026 · 2:15 pm ET · Leave a Comment

President Trump’s approval rate during his first term was negative, but essentially flat.

He’s been falling continuously during his second term.

2018 Campaign, 2026 Campaign

Trump Puts Legacy Ahead of Midterm Politics

September 22, 2026 · 9:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“For weeks, President Trump has repeated the same message in a bid to drive his supporters to the polls in November: Pretend I’m on the ballot,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“But in New York on Tuesday, the president offered a different assessment.”

Said Trump: “The Republican Party is running—and I’ll be helping them. But I am not running… It doesn’t even enter my mind.”

2018 Campaign, Foreign Affairs

Republicans Run From Trump On Iran

September 22, 2026 · 5:23 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Aaron Blake: “Republicans choosing to distance themselves from Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections was somewhat inevitable, given how historically unpopular the president is.”

“But the examples are piling up, and it’s notably happening in some pretty red territory.”

“Many of those running away from the president and policies like the Iran war are campaigning in territory that favored Trump by substantial margins — including by double digits in some areas.”

“The Iran war defections over the past week have been particularly notable.”

2018 Campaign, Republicans

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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