“I know that it was a bitter end to this very long primary, but I also know that Haley brings the best of herself to her work. She is one of the most committed public servants that you’ll ever meet. She loves democracy like I love democracy, and whatever differences that we might have had in the primary, they pale in comparison to what unifies us.”
— Michigan U.S. Senate candidate Abdul E-Sayed (D), quoted by NewsNation.
New York Times: “Conducting surveys in partisan primaries has long presented a challenge to pollsters, as it requires them to make assumptions about who will actually turn out to vote. Without mandatory party registration in Michigan, pollsters must guess who will show up on Election Day.”
“Many surveys assumed political independents would make up 30 to 40 percent of the electorate. These polls showed Dr. El-Sayed winning independents by a wide margin. While there is little authoritative detail available on the actual electorate, that assumption could have contributed to the challenge in polling the race, as voters who decline to identify with a political party tend to vote less frequently.”
“President Trump doesn’t much care if Republicans lose the House and/or the Senate in the midterms this fall,” Axios reports.
“Yes, he’d prefer a big win, but he seems indifferent to the election and the possibility of endless Democratic investigations of his family, wealth and policies, his closest advisers tell us.”
”A big reason: Trump knows he’ll emerge just as strong, or even stronger, heading into his final two years, at least among Republicans.”
“Democratic socialists look like they’re about to rack up a stunning new victory: Their candidate in Michigan’s Senate Democratic primary has the momentum heading into Tuesday’s primary,” Axios reports.
“A win by Abdul El-Sayed in the swing state would turbocharge the party’s left flank and validate establishment fears about the party’s direction.”
”Establishment Democrats have watched in horror as democratic socialist candidates pull off one win after another in House primaries this year. The Michigan primary brings the ideological clash to its biggest stage yet.”
The Economist: The Democratic primary for Senate in Michigan is a contest for control of the party.
“Republicans are heading into the fall campaign season with a lopsided cash advantage across their flagship committees and super PACs, but Democrats narrowed the gap with stronger fundraising by individual candidates,” the Washington Post reports.
”The latest campaign finance reports showed the GOP’s wealth concentrated in the hands of President Donald Trump and his advisers, as super PACs and party committees they control dominated the party’s fundraising. Democrats, by contrast, spread their contributions across individual congressional candidates, making them better-equipped than their head-to-head opponents.”
Washington Post: Democrats chip away at GOP cash lead centered on Trump.
“Republicans admit the GOP’s midterm forecast is bleak. But they’re clinging to two hopes: voters’ fear and loathing of Democrats,” Axios reports.
Said one Republican close to Trump: “It’s going to be a hate election. Voters have to hate the Dems more than they hate us. And we have material to work with.”
“There’s broad GOP frustration that Trump has made challenging midterm elections worse by not focusing heavily on pocketbook issues — especially the tax cuts Republicans won — while launching the Iran war, which raised gas prices and fueled inflation.”
Nate Silver: “With the Democratic lead on the generic ballot (currently about D+6), you’d expect them to overcome the Republican advantage from redistricting. That could grow, because most polls right now are among registered voters, and Democrats are likely to have an enthusiasm advantage that will show up once there’s a switch to likely-voter polls.”
“In the Senate, to win those four seats, Maine is a problem. There’s not much polling on non-Platner alternatives versus Collins, and any bridge burning by him on the way out could make it hard to unify around the new nominee.”
“A nonprofit founded by Stacey Abrams, a Georgia Democrat, admitted on Wednesday that it had violated state law by concealing the fact that it had campaigned for her during her 2018 run for governor,” the New York Times reports.
“At the time of that campaign, the group was led by Raphael Warnock, who was later elected to the Senate as a Democrat from Georgia.”
“Republican legislative leaders in Ohio say they are negotiating with Democrats to assure President Joe Biden appears on the state’s November ballot, but the exact shape of the solution remains murky,” the AP reports.
The FBI has said it can find no records related to former President Donald Trump’s assertions in November that he “sent in the FBI and the U.S. Attorneys” to stop “ballot theft” in Florida during the 2018 election, NBC News reports.
“I have a better, real clear understanding of just how powerful the election of Donald Trump was. In many respects, it lit the fire onto the base of our party, and I think that’s a good thing in many respects, you know. Maybe personally, it didn’t work out for me, but I think he created the energy we needed to oust him as president in four years.”
— Former Rep. Joe Crowley (D-NY), reflecting on his 2018 primary loss to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez (D-NY).
In a Wall Street Journal op-ed, Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger (R) seemed to blame Stacey Abrams (D) for President Trump’s attempts to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
Raffensperger drew parallels between Abrams’ refusal to concede her loss in the 2018 gubernatorial race to Brian Kemp: “After four years of relentless attacks on the integrity of elections by the most significant mainstream media outlets and pundits, it should come as no surprise that Americans have trouble believing the results of even the most secure elections.”
“Almost every Black Georgia voter queuing up at the polls has a story about 2018,” Politico reports.
“Most waited for hours in lines that wrapped around their voting locations. Some were removed from the voter rolls arbitrarily, forcing them to fill out confusing provisional ballots on Election Day. Others stayed home altogether and — after watching Democrat Stacey Abrams lose the gubernatorial race by fewer than 60,000 votes — regretted that decision.”
“Now, voter enthusiasm among all races is at an all-time high in one of the most consequential battleground states in the country. So is voter anxiety.”
New York Times: “President Trump is using a fear-based playbook that is as familiar to him as it is questionable in actually helping Republicans get elected in recent years. Some of the players have changed — instead of MS-13 gang members and migrant caravans, now there are rioters and looters — but the target audience and themes are the same: Suburban communities that he claims Democrats won’t keep safe. The president is even reusing phrases and imagery from 2018, with slogans like ‘jobs not mobs’ and ads showing Democratic politicians and liberal figures kneeling during the national anthem.”
“Democrats can point to the 41 House seats they picked up in 2018 to show that the Republican strategy did not work then, and that voters were more concerned about health care than havoc. Even Republicans say there is no solid evidence in their polling that proves the president’s tactics are helping him today.”
Washington Post: Trump employs images of violence as political fuel for reelection fight.
“Former Florida candidate for governor Andrew Gillum (D) disclosed Sunday that he is entering a rehabilitation facility, saying he had fallen into a depression and alcohol abuse after losing his bid for the state’s highest post,” the AP reports.
“The Democrat’s statement came days after Gillum was named in a south Florida police report Friday that said he was ‘inebriated’ and initially unresponsive in a hotel room along with a male companion where authorities found baggies of suspected crystal methamphetamine.”
Former Florida gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum (D) was allegedly involved in an incident involving crystal meth at a Miami Beach hotel early this morning, according to an incident report obtained by the Miami New Times.
Gillum to the Washington Post: “While I had too much to drink, I want to be clear that I have never used methamphetamines.”
He says he was in Miami last night for a wedding celebration when EMTs were called to assist one of his friends.
The FBI arrested a man connected to former Rep. Katie Hill’s (D-CA) congressional campaign, BuzzFeed News reports.
“Hill, who flipped a Republican-held seat in California two years ago, resigned from Congress last year after nude photos of her were released without her consent. While she was a candidate in 2018, the website of one of her Democratic rivals — Bryan Caforio — was hacked.”
The Intercept: “During the campaign, the websites of Hill’s opponents, Democrats Jess Phoenix and Bryan Caforio, who was supported by Justice Democrats, were both attacked, though Hill’s never was, raising suspicions at the time that Hill’s campaign was behind them.”
“He got 44.8% in 2018. He suffered the worst electoral defeat in the House ever… but yet, the media is going, ‘Oh, he’s so strong, he’s so powerful, he’s so this.’ No he’s not!”
— James Carville, in an interview on MSNBC, on President Trump.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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