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Andrew Gillum Enters Rehab

March 16, 2020 at 10:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Former Florida candidate for governor Andrew Gillum (D) disclosed Sunday that he is entering a rehabilitation facility, saying he had fallen into a depression and alcohol abuse after losing his bid for the state’s highest post,” the AP reports.

“The Democrat’s statement came days after Gillum was named in a south Florida police report Friday that said he was ‘inebriated’ and initially unresponsive in a hotel room along with a male companion where authorities found baggies of suspected crystal methamphetamine.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign

Andrew Gillum Involved In Crystal Meth Incident

March 13, 2020 at 11:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Former Florida gubernatorial candidate Andrew Gillum (D) was allegedly involved in an incident involving crystal meth at a Miami Beach hotel early this morning, according to an incident report obtained by the Miami New Times.

Gillum to the Washington Post: “While I had too much to drink, I want to be clear that I have never used methamphetamines.”

He says he was in Miami last night for a wedding celebration when EMTs were called to assist one of his friends.

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign

FBI Arrests Hacker Tied to Katie Hill’s Campaign

February 21, 2020 at 4:06 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The FBI arrested a man connected to former Rep. Katie Hill’s (D-CA) congressional campaign, BuzzFeed News reports.

“Hill, who flipped a Republican-held seat in California two years ago, resigned from Congress last year after nude photos of her were released without her consent. While she was a candidate in 2018, the website of one of her Democratic rivals — Bryan Caforio — was hacked.”

The Intercept: “During the campaign, the websites of Hill’s opponents, Democrats Jess Phoenix and Bryan Caforio, who was supported by Justice Democrats, were both attacked, though Hill’s never was, raising suspicions at the time that Hill’s campaign was behind them.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign

Quote of the Day

February 10, 2020 at 8:46 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“He got 44.8% in 2018. He suffered the worst electoral defeat in the House ever… but yet, the media is going, ‘Oh, he’s so strong, he’s so powerful, he’s so this.’ No he’s not!”

— James Carville, in an interview on MSNBC, on President Trump.

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, 2020 Campaign

Massive Dark Money Group Boosted Democrats

November 19, 2019 at 8:01 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The “green wave” of campaign cash that boosted Democrats and liberal causes in 2018 included an unprecedented gusher of secret money, new documents obtained by Politico show.

“The Sixteen Thirty Fund, a little-known nonprofit headquartered in Washington, spent $141 million on more than 100 left-leaning causes during the midterm election year, according to a new tax filing from the group.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, Campaign Finance

‘Medicare for All’ Was a Loser In 2018 Midterms

November 14, 2019 at 8:10 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Alan Abramowitz: “An analysis of the impact of Medicare for All on the 2018 House elections indicates that Democratic challengers and open seat candidates in competitive districts who endorsed a version of Medicare for All similar to that proposed by Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren did significantly worse than those who did not. This negative effect, close to five points of margin after controlling for a variety of other factors, was clearly large enough to affect the outcomes of some House contests.”

“It is possible that the estimated effect of Medicare for All was a byproduct of other differences between supporters and non-supporters. For example, supporters might have taken more liberal positions on a variety of other issues as well as Medicare for All. Even if that is the case, however, these findings are not encouraging to supporters of Medicare for All. They indicate that candidates in competitive races who take positions to the left of the median voter could get punished at the polls. Democratic presidential candidates would do well to take heed of these results, particularly as the eventual nominee determines what he or she wishes to emphasize in the general election.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, Health Care

Mystery of Missing Votes Deepens In Georgia

August 28, 2019 at 10:05 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“To find a clue about what might have gone wrong with Georgia’s election last fall, look no further than voting machine No. 3 at the Winterville Train Depot outside Athens,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.

“On machine No. 3, Republicans won every race. On each of the other six machines in that precinct, Democrats won every race. The odds of an anomaly that large are less than 1 in 1 million.”

“It just so happens that this occurred in Republican Brian Kemp’s home precinct, where he initially had a problem voting when his yellow voter access card didn’t work because a poll worker forgot to activate it. At the time, Kemp was secretary of state — Georgia’s top election official — and running for governor in a tight contest with Democrat Stacey Abrams.”

“The suspicious results in Winterville are evidence in the ongoing mystery of whether errors with voting machines contributed to a stark drop-off in votes recorded in the race for Georgia lieutenant governor between Republican Geoff Duncan, who ended up winning, and Democrat Sarah Riggs Amico.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, Election Administration

House Republicans Adopt Trump’s Playbook

July 17, 2019 at 11:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The NRCC, with the blessing of House Republican leaders, has adopted a no-holds-barred strategy to win back the House majority next year, borrowing heavily from President Trump’s playbook in deploying such taunts and name-calling,” the New York Times reports.

“The offensive hinges largely on the relatively facile notion that by tagging all House Democrats as socialists, anti-Semites or far-left extremists, they will be able to alienate swing-state voters. On Tuesday night, after the House voted to condemn as racist President Trump’s attacks on four congresswoman, the campaign arm’s communications team deluged reporters’ inboxes with message after message calling vulnerable Democratic lawmakers ‘deranged.'”

“Their tactics have discomforted some Republicans and highlighted the struggle in the party over how much to lean into the tenor of politics forged by their leader.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign

Florida Democrats Still Fighting Over 2018

June 29, 2019 at 11:01 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A nine-page report titled Path to Power recommends changes to party communications, candidate recruitment, digital operations, and voter registration. The analysis, published online without fanfare, has been quietly circulated to grassroots and local leaders.”

“State Democrats are still smarting after a run of bad election cycles, including last year’s race for governor and the loss of a U.S. Senate seat. Party leaders praised the report, calling it a comprehensive look at changes needed to defeat President Donald Trump in 2020. But for some, the work fell short.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign

Democrats Maintain Lead for Congress

June 11, 2019 at 12:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The newly-updated FiveThirtyEight generic congressional ballot tracker shows Democrats leading Republicans, 45.9% to 40.1%.

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign

New Research Suggests There Are Still Swing Voters

June 4, 2019 at 11:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Ron Brownstein: “Detailed new research by the Democratic voter-targeting firm Catalist found that the party’s big gains in the 2018 congressional election were fueled not only by unusually high turnout among voters sympathetic to the party, but also by larger-than-expected defections from the GOP among voters who had backed Trump two years earlier.”

“Those findings offer potentially critical evidence as Democrats are debating the best approach to beating Trump in 2020. On one side are progressive activists who say the party should prioritize mobilizing nonvoters, particularly young people and minorities, with an unabashedly liberal agenda. On the other are centrists who say Democrats can’t tilt so far left on issues such as single-payer health care and the Green New Deal that they alienate swing voters who backed Trump in 2016 but may be open to reconsidering now.”

“Rather than picking one path, the new Catalist data on 2018 signals that Democrats need to do some of both in 2020. But, on balance, its analysis found that a clear majority of Democrats’ gains from 2016 to 2018 came from voters switching their preference, rather than from changes in the electorate’s composition.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, 2020 Campaign

Federal Subpoena Demands Records on Andrew Gillum

May 30, 2019 at 12:48 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Andrew Gillum (D) is a focal point of a recently issued federal grand jury subpoena that demands information on the former Democratic candidate for governor, his campaign, his political committee, a wealthy donor, a charity he worked for and a former employer,” the Tampa Bay Times reports.

“Throughout his campaign last year, Gillum insisted that he was not a target of a sprawling FBI investigation of Tallahassee city hall, which has taken at least three years and resulted in three arrests… But the recent one does.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign Tagged With: Andrew Gillum, FL-Gov

Younger Voters Outvoted Older Generations In 2018

May 29, 2019 at 7:55 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Midterm voter turnout reached a modern high in 2018, and Generation Z, Millennials and Generation X accounted for a narrow majority of those voters,” according to a Pew Research Center analysis.

“The three younger generations – those ages 18 to 53 in 2018 – reported casting 62.2 million votes, compared with 60.1 million cast by Baby Boomers and older generations. It’s not the first time the younger generations outvoted their elders: The same pattern occurred in the 2016 presidential election.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign

O’Rourke Apologizes for Being a ‘Giant Asshole’

May 28, 2019 at 3:33 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The documentary Running With Beto will premiere tonight on HBO.

Daily Beast: “In the doc, Beto comes off as charismatic yet controlling—its most revealing moments being ones where he is seen dressing down his clearly overworked staff for their perceived lack of preparedness. The person on the receiving end of most of the scoldings is Cynthia Cano, his road manager. At several tense points in the film, Cano is criticized by Beto—in front of her campaign colleagues—for not leaving enough time in his schedule for media interviews, having him be late to campaign events, and not adequately prepping him for those events. (Cano views Beto’s penchant for going long in his speeches and wanting to speak with every single constituent and/or person with a microphone as the reason for his constant tardiness and lack of prep time, which appears to be the more likely culprit.)”

“After Beto was narrowly defeated by Cruz, he delivered a concession speech in front of thousands of supporters in his backyard of El Paso, where he exclaimed, ‘I’m so fucking proud of you guys.’ Just prior to that, in the backstage area of the venue, Modigliani’s cameras caught Beto and his top staffers (as well as his teary-eyed wife, Amy) in an intimate huddle, where the Senate candidate apologized to them for being ‘a giant asshole.'”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, 2020 Campaign Tagged With: Beto O'Rourke

508 State Legislative Seats Flipped In 2018

May 9, 2019 at 10:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Ballotpedia: “On November 6, 2018, elections were held for 6,073 state legislative seats across 87 of the nation’s 99 state legislative chambers. Five hundred and eight elections (8.3%) resulted in control of a seat changing to a new party. Of the 508 flips, 391 (77.0%) were Republican seats that flipped to Democrats and 93 (18.2%) were Democratic seats that flipped to Republicans.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign

Democrats Lose Their Enthusiasm Advantage

May 6, 2019 at 8:36 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “In the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, 75% of Republican registered voters say they have high interest in the 2020 presidential election – registering a 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale – versus 73 percent of Democratic voters who say the same thing.”

“That’s quite a change from the 2018 cycle, when Democrats held a double-digit lead on this question until the last two months before the election, when the GOP closed the gap but still trailed the Dems in enthusiasm.”

“Overall enthusiasm for 2020 is sky-high, with 69% of all voters expressing a high level of interest in the upcoming election. That’s just 3 points shy of the 72 percent who said the same thing in October 2016. And we are still more than 500 days away from the 2020 general election. So, yeah, turnout in 2020 is going to be through the roof.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, 2020 Campaign

High Midterm Turnout Extended Across Racial Groups

May 2, 2019 at 10:08 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“More than half of U.S. eligible voters cast a ballot in 2018, the highest turnout rate for a midterm election in recent history, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of newly released data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The increased turnout was particularly pronounced among Hispanics and Asians, making last year’s midterm voters the most racially and ethnically diverse ever.”

“This was a stark reversal from the previous midterm year, when turnout had decreased – from 45.5% in 2010 to 41.9% in 2014.”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, Race

New Data Reinforces Urgency of GOP’s Female Problem

April 26, 2019 at 9:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

David Wasserman: “It turns out the ‘blue wave’ of 2018 was just as much about subtraction as addition: President Trump’s best demographic, men without college degrees, was also the likeliest group to sit out the midterms. Their absence left behind an electorate skewed much more towards college-educated voters, particularly women, costing the GOP dozens of mostly suburban House seats and handing Democrats the majority.”

“According to survey data released by the Census Bureau this week, the total number of women with college degrees who voted fell just 2.4 percent between 2016 and 2018. In an October 2018 NBC/WSJ poll, Trump’s approval rating with this group was just 27 percent. Meanwhile, the total number of men without college degrees who voted fell 16.2 percent (this group had given Trump a much higher 64 percent rating).”

Filed Under: 2018 Campaign, Republicans

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About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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