A new Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll finds most voters believe Democrats will win back the House—just not Republican voters.
“Fully half of self-identified Republicans don’t believe Democrats are likely to win back the House. And within that group, 57% of people who describe themselves as strong Trump supporters don’t believe Democrats have a chance (37% believe they do).”
“Republicans are bracing for political aftershocks from the sexual assault accusation against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, with some expressing fear that the coming investigation will refocus the nation’s attention on an issue that could drive up the Democratic vote in the midterm elections,” the Washington Post reports.
“The initial hope that the conservative Kavanaugh’s appointment would encourage turnout by grateful GOP voters this fall has been tempered by new fears that more voters, especially independent women, might head to the polls with fresh anger about Republican handling of sexual impropriety after a new round of public hearings.”
Searching for a new wedge issue to use against his opponent, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) suggested that Beto O’Rourke (D) wanted to ban barbecue in Texas, the Austin American Statesman reports.
Said Cruz: “When I got here someone told me that even PETA was protesting and giving out barbecued tofu, so I got to say, they summed up the entire election: If Texas elects a Democrat, they’re going to ban barbecue across the state of Texas.”
He added: “You want to talk about an issue to mobilize the people, and I’m talking everybody. So I want to thank PETA and I do want to tell PETA you’re going to have to disclose to the FEC that by coming and protesting and giving away tofu, that you have given an in-kind contribution to my campaign by demonstrating just how bad things can get.”
A new CNN poll in Arizona finds Kyrsten Sinema (D) tops Martha McSally (R) by 7 points in the U.S. senate race, 50% to 43% among likely voters.
In Tennessee, Phil Bredesen (D) holds a 5-point edge over Marsha Blackburn (R), 50% to 45% among likely voters there.
Roughly 1 in 6 voters in each state say there’s a chance they’ll change their mind before Election Day.
Indicted Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY) will stay on the ballot in his New York congressional district this fall, the Buffalo News reports.
Roll Call: “Local GOP leaders had for several weeks been looking for a way to replace Collins with another Republican candidate on the ballot. The news Monday signals that they were not able to find a viable path to replace Collins.”
Jonathan Swan: “A source who has seen recent polling, conducted by the Republican National Committee, told me the data show that a majority of Trump voters don’t believe the mountain of evidence that Democrats will win back the House in November.”
Key finding: “57% of strong Trump supporters believe it’s unlikely Democrats win the House.”
“This disbelief freaked out Republican strategists who want their voters to be panicked enough to vote in November.”
NBC News: “Start with the most basic measure, the number of House seats that are thought to be competitive. Back in May of 2017, when the Cook Political Report did its first ratings, it looked as if the Democrats and Republicans were starting on relatively even ground, but the numbers look very different today.”
“Back in May, there were 12 seats held by the Republicans that looked competitive and there were 11 held by Democrats — those were seats that were ranked as ‘lean’ toward their party or were considered even more in danger.”
“As of mid-September, there are 66 GOP-held seats that look competitive and only four Democratic seats in that category.”
New CBS News Battleground Tracker polling find Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) is up two points with likely voters over Matt Rosendale (R), 47% to 45% in Montana, while in Missouri, Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) and Josh Hawley (R) are even in support among likely voters at 45% to 45%.
Most supporters of all these candidates describe themselves as enthusiastic about voting this year.
“Former President George W. Bush is hosting a series of fundraising events for vulnerable Republican candidates, including a couple of House members facing tough re-election bids in his home state of Texas,” the Dallas Morning News reports.
“Noticeably absent from the list is Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, a Republican who is facing a surprisingly robust challenge from Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX).”
New York Times: “As Democrats enter the fall midterm campaign with palpable confidence about reclaiming the House and perhaps even the Senate, tensions are rising between the White House and congressional Republicans over who is to blame for political difficulties facing the party, with President Trump’s advisers pointing to the high number of G.O.P. retirements and lawmakers placing the blame squarely on the president’s divisive style.”
“Yet Republican leaders do agree on one surprising element in the battle for Congress: They cannot rely on the booming economy to win over undecided voters.”
“To the dismay of party leaders, the healthy economy and Mr. Trump have become countervailing forces. The decline in unemployment and soaring gross domestic product, along with the tax overhaul Republicans argue is fueling the growth, have been obscured by the president’s inflammatory moves on immigration, Vladimir V. Putin, and other fronts, party leaders say.”
Harry Enten: “What’s important to keep in mind is that district polls at this point in the cycle can underestimate the party benefiting from a wave election.”
“I went back since the 2006 election and looked at how much the polls from roughly within a month of this point in the cycle performed. (That is, polls completed from about 52 to 82 days before the election.)”
“The immediate thing that jumps out is the side that has won the national House popular vote has always done better on Election Day than the polls indicate right now. The average overperformance was a little over 3 points.”
Dana Milbank: “New evidence indicates that the midterm elections in seven weeks will be the clearest referendum on a president in at least 80 years.”
“But while it may delight the narcissistic president that the 2018 midterms are entirely about him, this is precisely what his fellow Republicans were hoping to avoid. With Trump’s support at historic lows — 60% overall disapprove of his performance, including 59% of independents — Republicans scrambling to hold the House and Senate have been struggling in vain to make the election about other issues: tax cuts, Democrats’ personal foibles — anything to avoid the election being about Trump. This has failed, bigly.”
“Midterm elections have generally come to be seen as the electorate’s reaction to a presidency. But this one is on a whole different level.”
Ballot Access News: “In the November 2018 election, there will be Democrats on the ballot in all but two U.S. House districts. No party in the history of government-printed ballots has ever before had candidates on the ballot in that many districts. Even in the 1930’s, the Democrats did not have that many nominees. The Republican Party has never had that many candidates.”
“The Republican base now belongs to President Trump and the GOP has placed a big bet on turning them out in November,” NBC News reports.
“Nearly a decade after the insurgent Tea Party movement began challenging the Republican establishment on ideological grounds over issues like taxes and the size of government, the GOP primaries were all about one person: Trump.”
Said GOP strategist Alex Conant: “The importance of being loyal to Trump in this year’s GOP primaries is remarkable. Many of the primaries boiled down to which candidate appeared most in line with Trump’s brand of politics. Past arguments like conservative credentials or electability were not very salient messages.”
“A new political website has sprung up, appropriating the ‘Me Too’ movement to attack Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) over allegations stemming from his 1986 divorce,” the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
“The website… includes a 60-second video that references court records from Brown’s divorce with his then-wife, Larke Recchie, as well as excerpts from the records themselves. The ugly divorce, which included allegations that Brown ‘bullied’ and shoved Recchie, has come up in many of Brown’s campaigns, including his 1992 race for Congress and his 2012 re-election campaign to the U.S. Senate. Recchie is now a political supporter of Brown’s and has described ‘angry words’ that surrounded their divorce.”
Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) is out with a very effective ad recounting her experience in beating breast cancer while blasting rival Josh Hawley (R) for joining a lawsuit that could undo Obamacare’s protections for those with pre-existing conditions.
First Read highlights other Democrats seizing on health care and pre-existing conditions in their ads:
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Wonk Wire, Political Job Hunt and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
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