David Wasserman: “If you had told me yesterday McCready would carry Mecklenberg County — Bishop’s base in Charlotte suburbs — by 12.6% after winning it by just 9.5% in 2018, I would’ve bet he’d win.”
“But his poor showing among rural Trump Dems (yes, they’re a real constituency) cost Dems a pickup.”
Dan Bishop (R), best known for writing North Carolina’s controversial “bathroom bill,” narrowly beat out Dan McCready (D) to win a House seat in the state’s 9th congressional district, according to Decision Desk HQ.
The election was a re-run of last year’s election after the result was thrown out due to election fraud.
With most votes counted, Bishop was ahead by about two percentage points. President Trump won the district by 12 points in 2016.
Republican leadership lowered expectations for the outcome in Tuesday’s North Carolina’s 9th District special election, calling it a “swing district,” Roll Call reports.
Said GOP Whip Steve Scalise: “You know, the Bishop district is a very tough swing district.”
President Trump carried this district by 12 points in 2016.
Playbook: “Tonight, Republican Dan Bishop and Democrat Dan McCready will finally face off in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District. Nearly $20 million has been spent on this race — McCready has spent $4.7 million, Bishop has spent $1.7 million, and the NRCC and CLF have spent a combined $5.4 million. All the groups involved in this race say the same thing: Internal polling has the two candidates within a few points of each other — all within the margin of error.”
“As you know by now, this district went for President Trump by a dozen points. Democrats don’t have much business holding this seat.”
Old North State Politics: “The last time a Democrat held the seat was up to 1962, when Hugh Quincy Alexander lost his re-election bid to Republican Jim Broyhill in that year’s mid-term; Republicans have held the different configurations of this district since 1963.”
Associated Press: “President Trump’s rally in North Carolina will serve as a measure of his clout in trying to elect a Republican to the House in a closely watched special election that’s seen as a tossup race.”
“It will be his first campaign rally since a tough end of summer that saw slipping poll numbers, warning signs of an economic slowdown and a running battle over hurricane forecasts. Trump will visit the state Monday night on the eve of the House election. He enjoys wide popularity within his own party, but a GOP defeat in a red-leaning state could, when combined with a wave of recent bad headlines, portend trouble for his reelection campaign.”
Politico: “The last, lingering piece of the 2018 election is about to preview the fundamental dynamic shaping the fight for the White House in 2020.”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “It is rare for us to leave any race as a Toss-up immediately before an election, but we reserve the right to do it for special elections. Such races have unpredictable rates of turnout and can hinge on unusual circumstances.”
“While we’ve thought the Republicans were better positioned to win the NC-9 do-over special election — and that may end up being the case — the latest data, and the latest circumstances, suggest that the race is close enough that we should make it a Toss-up with less than a week to go until Tuesday’s election.”
A new Harper Polling/Clarity Campaigns Lab poll in North Carolina’s 9th congressional district finds Dan McCready (D) leading Dan Bishop (R) in the do-over congressional race from last year, 46% to 42%, with two third party candidates receiving a combined 3 percent.
When leaners are included, McCready’s advantage extends to 49% to 44%.
“At a retreat with top GOP donors in Wyoming last week, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy broached a growing concern for senior Republicans: a crucial, do-over election for a North Carolina congressional seat.” Politico reports.
“McCarthy has traveled to the state to help the Republican candidate, state Sen. Dan Bishop, and has pushed his rank-and-file lawmakers to lend a hand. And as he chatted up contributors, he warned that next month’s vote is critical: Following a devastating 2018 election that demolished the House GOP majority, a win in the nationally-watched race would give the party a badly-needed morale boost.”
Roll Call: “McCready lost this district, which President Trump carried by 11 points in 2016, by less than a thousand votes last fall. But because of alleged election fraud tied to his 2018 GOP opponent’s campaign, he’s still at it, running against a different Republican in a redo election to be held Sept. 10.”
“It’s a special election with unique factors, but as the only competitive federal race in 2019, the contest is also a test of the messages Democrats and Republicans will use in 2020 — especially in a crucial battleground state.”
“Just as Democrats were in 2018, McCready is focused on health care. His Republican opponent, state Sen. Dan Bishop, who won a 10-way primary earlier this year, is trying to tie him to socialism and ‘the squad’ — four freshman House Democrats who have become the new GOP boogeywomen.”
Dan Bishop (R), who is running in the do-over election in North Carolina’s 9th congressional district, likened his efforts to undermine LGBTQ rights via religious exemptions to the work of Oskar Schindler, a German industrialist who saved Jews during the Holocaust, the HuffPost reports.
Even though President Trump won the district by 12 points in 2016, the Cook Political Report still rates the do-over election in North Carolina’s 9th congressional district a Toss Up.
“We’re keeping this contest in the Toss Up column for now, but these latest developments are all encouraging signs for Republicans. Ultimately, they’re defending a seat that is still very red in nature, even if the oddities that preceded another vote still leaves quite a bit in limbo to give Democrats an opening.”
North Carolina state Sen. Dan Bishop (R) won the Republican nomination to face veteran Dan McCready (D) in September’s do-over election in North Carolina’s scandal-plagued 9th Congressional District, after last year’s results were thrown out amid allegations of election fraud, the Washington Post reports.
Bishop authored the 2016 “bathroom bill,” which was later repealed, requiring transgender people to use the bathroom corresponding to the gender on their birth certificate.
Wall Street Journal: “Republicans are looking to avoid a runoff in Tuesday’s primary for North Carolina’s do-over Ninth Congressional District race, a possibility that seemed unlikely in March when 10 candidates filed for the empty seat.”
“Avoiding a four-month runoff would be a boon to the Republican candidate, who will face Democrat Dan McCready in the fall. Mr. McCready had $1.6 million in cash on hand as of April 24 … In a recent poll, State Sen. Dan Bishop was the top candidate, with 31% support, while Stony Rushing, a gun-range owner and Union County commissioner, had 17%.”
Politico: “North Carolina Republicans are suffering from a lack of credibility, a crowded field and a cash deficit as they head into the primary for the 9th Congressional District redo election.”
“After last week’s filing deadline, 10 Republicans have declared their candidacy for the suburban Charlotte House seat, which has been vacant since January due to allegations of election fraud. A political operative hired by Republican candidate Mark Harris’ 2018 campaign oversaw the illegal collection and manipulation of absentee ballots, subsequently spurring the state election board to order a rerun last month.”
McCrae Dowless, the political operative who emerged as a central figure in the investigation into irregularities in North Carolina’s 9th congressional district, was arrested and charged with a series of charges related to his handling of absentee ballots in the 2016 general election and 2018 primary, WRAL reports.
Citing his health, Mark Harris (R) said that he won’t run in a new election for North Carolina’s 9th congressional district, the Charlotte Observer reports.
Washington Post: “Harris was ahead by 905 votes in North Carolina’s 9th District after the midterm election last year, but evidence emerged that a Harris campaign operative had improperly collected absentee ballots. State election officials last week voted unanimously to throw out the November results of the race between Harris and Dan McCready (D).”