A new Mason-Dixon poll finds Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R) and challenger Andy Beshear (D) tied in the gubernatorial race at 46% each.
“President Trump loomed large over Louisiana’s governor’s race a day after Gov. John Bel Edwards fell short of winning Saturday’s primary outright, forcing him to face businessman Eddie Rispone in next month’s runoff,” the New Orleans Times-Picayune reports.
“About 200,000 more people voted in the primary compared to the 2015 runoff election that Edwards won, an increase of about 17%. An analysis on Sunday by Jim Kitchens, who was the governor’s pollster four years ago and was an independent consultant for his campaign this year, indicated that most of the 200,000 were white rural voters who voted for Rispone or Abraham.”
The New York Times has the results of the the Louisiana gubernatorial primary election.
If not candidate reaches 50% of the vote, the top two will face a runoff election.
“The White House is planning an 11th-hour push to stave off an embarrassing defeat for the Republican governor of Kentucky, with President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence expected to make separate trips to the state in the runup to the Nov. 5 election,” Politico reports.
A new Emerson College primary poll in the Louisiana race for Governor finds Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) leading with 48%, followed by Eddie Rispone (R) at 25% and Ralph Abraham (R) at 19%.
If no candidate reaches 50% in the Saturday jungle prinary, a general two-candidate election will be held on November 16 with the top two finishers.
A new Mason-Dixon poll in Louisiana finds Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) comfortably leads his two chief Republican rivals with 45%, while Eddie Rispone (R) is at 22% and Ralph Abraham (R) is at 17%, with five days left to the primary election.
If there’s a run-off between Edwards and Rispone, 51% of those polled said they would vote for Edwards while 42% said they would cast a ballot for Rispone. 7% were undecided.
If a run-off occurs between Edwards and Abraham, the poll found 53% would back Edwards while 38% would support Abraham. 9% were undecided.
“Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards, a conservative Democrat dismissed by many Republicans as an “accidental governor” when he was elected in a major upset in 2015, may be on the brink of winning a second term next week,” Politico reports.
“Edwards is running a classic red-state Democratic campaign, campaigning on an anti-abortion, pro-gun record — while Republicans want to nationalize the race in a state President Trump won by 20 points in 2016. But with Republicans Ralph Abraham and Eddie Rispone sniping at one another, Edwards could win reelection before the GOP even picks its candidate.”
“That’s because, under Louisiana’s unique open-primary system, Abraham and Rispone are jockeying for second place in a potential November run-off against Edwards. But Edwards can win outright by getting a majority on Oct. 12.”
Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R) “has shaken up his reelection campaign weeks ahead of the November vote, a potentially ominous sign for the Republican incumbent,” Politico reports.
“The shakeup comes as Bevin tries to survive a competitive reelection battle against state Attorney General Andy Beshear, the Democratic nominee. Public polling is limited, though past survey data has shown Bevin to be one of the most unpopular governors in the country.”
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The Daily Kos Special Elections Tracker shows that Democrats are outperforming Hillary Clinton’s margins by an average of 5.5% across 39 federal and state legislative special elections since November 2018.
This is roughly the same as the 6.5% spread shown in the generic congressional ballot averages.
Republican leadership lowered expectations for the outcome in Tuesday’s North Carolina’s 9th District special election, calling it a “swing district,” Roll Call reports.
Said GOP Whip Steve Scalise: “You know, the Bishop district is a very tough swing district.”
President Trump carried this district by 12 points in 2016.
Playbook: “Tonight, Republican Dan Bishop and Democrat Dan McCready will finally face off in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District. Nearly $20 million has been spent on this race — McCready has spent $4.7 million, Bishop has spent $1.7 million, and the NRCC and CLF have spent a combined $5.4 million. All the groups involved in this race say the same thing: Internal polling has the two candidates within a few points of each other — all within the margin of error.”
“As you know by now, this district went for President Trump by a dozen points. Democrats don’t have much business holding this seat.”
Old North State Politics: “The last time a Democrat held the seat was up to 1962, when Hugh Quincy Alexander lost his re-election bid to Republican Jim Broyhill in that year’s mid-term; Republicans have held the different configurations of this district since 1963.”
Associated Press: “President Trump’s rally in North Carolina will serve as a measure of his clout in trying to elect a Republican to the House in a closely watched special election that’s seen as a tossup race.”
“It will be his first campaign rally since a tough end of summer that saw slipping poll numbers, warning signs of an economic slowdown and a running battle over hurricane forecasts. Trump will visit the state Monday night on the eve of the House election. He enjoys wide popularity within his own party, but a GOP defeat in a red-leaning state could, when combined with a wave of recent bad headlines, portend trouble for his reelection campaign.”
Politico: “The last, lingering piece of the 2018 election is about to preview the fundamental dynamic shaping the fight for the White House in 2020.”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “It is rare for us to leave any race as a Toss-up immediately before an election, but we reserve the right to do it for special elections. Such races have unpredictable rates of turnout and can hinge on unusual circumstances.”
“While we’ve thought the Republicans were better positioned to win the NC-9 do-over special election — and that may end up being the case — the latest data, and the latest circumstances, suggest that the race is close enough that we should make it a Toss-up with less than a week to go until Tuesday’s election.”
“Virginia Democrats are betting health care will help them take control of the state legislature in November, following their rout of Republicans two years ago that nearly eliminated the GOP’s hold on the Virginia statehouse” Politico reports.
“Democrats are already pouring tens of thousands of dollars into ads targeting the health care records of GOP incumbents in newly competitive races, hoping to capitalize on recently redrawn legislative districts seen as more favorable to Democrats. And new polling data says health care ranks high for potential voters.”
A new Harper Polling/Clarity Campaigns Lab poll in North Carolina’s 9th congressional district finds Dan McCready (D) leading Dan Bishop (R) in the do-over congressional race from last year, 46% to 42%, with two third party candidates receiving a combined 3 percent.
When leaners are included, McCready’s advantage extends to 49% to 44%.