Jonathan Bernstein: “Democratic operatives in Louisiana seem to think so. And Trump’s overall lack of popularity certainly hurts Republican candidates everywhere, even in places where he remains popular. But it’s also possible that this is a typical case of political winners looking savvy after the fact and losers looking guilty of poor electioneering choices. It’s more likely that the rallies had little or no direct effects.”
“What matters to Trump’s reputation, however, is what Republican party actors believe. It’s possible they’ll believe his outlandish and evidence-free boasts about these elections — that, for example, he single-handedly rescued Kentucky’s Republican governor from a huge polling deficit and managed to help him to a narrower-than-expected loss. More likely, however, they’ll be more skeptical about his reputation for electoral clout.”
