“Democrats gained control of both houses of the Virginia General Assembly Tuesday, with election results suggesting that the party had completed a historic sweep of the state’s government,” the Washington Post reports.
“After polls closed on the most expensive and most-watched Virginia legislative races in years, incomplete tallies showed Democrats picked up at least two seats in the state Senate and four in the House of Delegates to take narrow majorities.”
Kentucky and Mississippi will elect governors. Some polls close in Kentucky at 6 p.m., while others at 7 p.m. Polls in Mississippi close at 8 p.m.
In Virginia, voters will decide control of the state legislature. Polls close at 7 p.m.
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Associated Press: “Results in Kentucky, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia won’t necessarily predict whether Trump will be reelected or which party will control Congress after the general election next fall. But partisans of all stripes invariably will use these odd-year elections for clues about how voters are reacting to the impeachment saga and whether the Republican president is losing ground among suburban voters who rewarded Democrats in the 2018 midterms and will prove critical again next November.”
First Read: “Maybe the best way to view today’s elections in Kentucky, Mississippi and Virginia is that Republicans are playing defense — on favorable turf in the red states of Kentucky and Mississippi, and on much more challenging ground in Virginia.”
“As a result, a good night for the GOP will be if they can hold their losses to control of just one chamber in Virginia, and keep control of everything else.”
“And a good/great night for Democrats will be if they flip both chambers in Virginia and win the governor’s mansion in Kentucky.”
Politico: “President Trump came here Monday night to rally for Kentucky’s vulnerable Republican governor, but the impeachment inquiry back in Washington was foremost on his mind.”
“In a rambling speech lasting an hour and 20 minutes, the president railed against his political rivals, ramping up the invective. Democrats are ‘trying to tear our country apart,’ he told a raucous crowd here, ‘trying to nullify the ballots’ of the 63 million Americans who voted for him in the 2016 election.”
“Virginia Democrats are betting health care will help them take control of the state legislature in November, following their rout of Republicans two years ago that nearly eliminated the GOP’s hold on the Virginia statehouse,” Politico reports.
“Democrats are already pouring tens of thousands of dollars into ads targeting the health care records of GOP incumbents in newly competitive races, hoping to capitalize on recently redrawn legislative districts seen as more favorable to Democrats. And new polling data says health care ranks high for potential voters.”
Lexington Herald Leader: “Only about three of every 10 registered voters in Kentucky will take time to vote Tuesday to elect Kentucky’s governor for the next four years, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes said Wednesday.”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “In an era of political nationalization that is bleeding down the ballot even to state-level races, the best bet in all three states would be to go with partisanship. And that’s where we’re leaning: Our ratings for the gubernatorial races in Kentucky and Mississippi remain Leans Republican and, while we don’t issue ratings for specific state legislative chambers and races, our sense is that the Democrats are better-positioned than Republicans to win both the Virginia House of Delegates and (especially) the Virginia Senate.”
New York Times: “There are three governor’s races and control of the Virginia legislature at stake in this off-year election, but it’s Kentucky where the most consequential campaign is taking place — and where the political impact of impeachment on the two parties is being put to the most visible test.”
“The Beshear-Bevin contest represents the first, best indicator of whether Republicans can harness anger over the impeachment inquiry into Mr. Trump to rouse their rural base — or whether Democrats will benefit from an increasingly urban voting bloc that is energized by what it sees as a lawless presidency.”
A new JMC Analytics and Polling survey in Louisiana shows Gov. Jon Bel Edwards (D) leading Eddie Rispone (R) in the race for governor, 48% to 46% with 6% undecided.
Said pollster John Couvillon: “Given that the undecided percentage is down to 6% — 4% if ‘leaners’ are excluded — this is now an election where turnout matters a lot more than persuasion, particularly with early voting less than a week away.”
Politico: “Donald Trump is going all-in on a trio of Southern governor’s races in November, gambling that a clean sweep will help him regain his political footing at the most perilous moment of his presidency.”
“Trump is expected to barnstorm Kentucky, Mississippi, and Louisiana over the next few weeks, while dispatching prominent supporters to help in each contest. And Vice President Mike Pence is planning a bus tour through eastern Kentucky, a pivotal area on the state’s political map that could decide the fate of Republican Gov. Matt Bevin.”
“Trump badly needs a boost right now, and the White House sees the elections in the conservative states as the best near-term hope of achieving it.”
A new Mason-Dixon poll finds Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R) and challenger Andy Beshear (D) tied in the gubernatorial race at 46% each.
A new ALG Research (D) poll in Louisiana finds Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) leading challenger Eddie Rispone (R) in the November 16 gubernatorial runoff election, 52% to 36%.
Inside Elections: Key takeaways from the primary election.
“President Trump loomed large over Louisiana’s governor’s race a day after Gov. John Bel Edwards fell short of winning Saturday’s primary outright, forcing him to face businessman Eddie Rispone in next month’s runoff,” the New Orleans Times-Picayune reports.
“About 200,000 more people voted in the primary compared to the 2015 runoff election that Edwards won, an increase of about 17%. An analysis on Sunday by Jim Kitchens, who was the governor’s pollster four years ago and was an independent consultant for his campaign this year, indicated that most of the 200,000 were white rural voters who voted for Rispone or Abraham.”
The New York Times has the results of the the Louisiana gubernatorial primary election.
If not candidate reaches 50% of the vote, the top two will face a runoff election.
“The White House is planning an 11th-hour push to stave off an embarrassing defeat for the Republican governor of Kentucky, with President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence expected to make separate trips to the state in the runup to the Nov. 5 election,” Politico reports.
A new Emerson College primary poll in the Louisiana race for Governor finds Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) leading with 48%, followed by Eddie Rispone (R) at 25% and Ralph Abraham (R) at 19%.
If no candidate reaches 50% in the Saturday jungle prinary, a general two-candidate election will be held on November 16 with the top two finishers.
A new Mason-Dixon poll in Louisiana finds Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) comfortably leads his two chief Republican rivals with 45%, while Eddie Rispone (R) is at 22% and Ralph Abraham (R) is at 17%, with five days left to the primary election.
If there’s a run-off between Edwards and Rispone, 51% of those polled said they would vote for Edwards while 42% said they would cast a ballot for Rispone. 7% were undecided.
If a run-off occurs between Edwards and Abraham, the poll found 53% would back Edwards while 38% would support Abraham. 9% were undecided.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
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