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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192

November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

GOP Squabbles as Louisiana Governor Nears Re-Election

October 1, 2019 · 9:05 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards, a conservative Democrat dismissed by many Republicans as an “accidental governor” when he was elected in a major upset in 2015, may be on the brink of winning a second term next week,” Politico reports.

“Edwards is running a classic red-state Democratic campaign, campaigning on an anti-abortion, pro-gun record — while Republicans want to nationalize the race in a state President Trump won by 20 points in 2016. But with Republicans Ralph Abraham and Eddie Rispone sniping at one another, Edwards could win reelection before the GOP even picks its candidate.”

“That’s because, under Louisiana’s unique open-primary system, Abraham and Rispone are jockeying for second place in a potential November run-off against Edwards. But Edwards can win outright by getting a majority on Oct. 12.”

2019 Campaign LA-Gov

Kentucky Governor Shakes Up His Campaign

September 24, 2019 · 4:48 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R) “has shaken up his reelection campaign weeks ahead of the November vote, a potentially ominous sign for the Republican incumbent,” Politico reports.

“The shakeup comes as Bevin tries to survive a competitive reelection battle against state Attorney General Andy Beshear, the Democratic nominee. Public polling is limited, though past survey data has shown Bevin to be one of the most unpopular governors in the country.”

2019 Campaign KY-Gov

Member feature

North Carolina Shows a Bright Future for Republicans

September 12, 2019 · 4:52 pm ET · Leave a Comment

This piece for members is by David T.S. Jonas, my co-author of Spitball: The New Rules of Our Broken Politics.

Dan Bishop (R) won a House race by just two points on Tuesday, trailing President Trump’s performance in 2016 in that district by ten points. For most analysts, this would indicate that the dynamics of the 2018 midterms are still firmly in place. Specifically, Republican-leaning voters look like they’re fired up to vote, but Democrats are measurably more excited and are outpacing Republicans in the process, especially in the suburbs.

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2019 Campaign, Members NC-9

The National Environment Is Still Pretty Blue

September 11, 2019 · 1:09 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The Daily Kos Special Elections Tracker shows that Democrats are outperforming Hillary Clinton’s margins by an average of 5.5% across 39 federal and state legislative special elections since November 2018.

This is roughly the same as the 6.5% spread shown in the generic congressional ballot averages.

2019 Campaign

Special Election Results

September 10, 2019 · 7:15 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Polls close at 7:30 p.m. ET for the special elections in North Carolina’s 9th and 3rd congressional districts.

Politico and the New York Times are tracking results as the come in.

Leave your reactions in the comments.

2019 Campaign NC-3, NC-9

House GOP Downplays North Carolina Special Election

September 10, 2019 · 12:36 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Republican leadership lowered expectations for the outcome in Tuesday’s North Carolina’s 9th District special election, calling it a “swing district,” Roll Call reports.

Said GOP Whip Steve Scalise: “You know, the Bishop district is a very tough swing district.”

President Trump carried this district by 12 points in 2016.

2019 Campaign NC-9

The Last Election of 2018

September 10, 2019 · 6:34 am ET · Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Tonight, Republican Dan Bishop and Democrat Dan McCready will finally face off in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District. Nearly $20 million has been spent on this race — McCready has spent $4.7 million, Bishop has spent $1.7 million, and the NRCC and CLF have spent a combined $5.4 million. All the groups involved in this race say the same thing: Internal polling has the two candidates within a few points of each other — all within the margin of error.”

“As you know by now, this district went for President Trump by a dozen points. Democrats don’t have much business holding this seat.”

Old North State Politics: “The last time a Democrat held the seat was up to 1962, when Hugh Quincy Alexander lost his re-election bid to Republican Jim Broyhill in that year’s mid-term; Republicans have held the different configurations of this district since 1963.”

2019 Campaign NC-9

Trump’s North Carolina Rally Will Be Test of His Clout

September 9, 2019 · 6:49 am ET · Leave a Comment

Associated Press: “President Trump’s rally in North Carolina will serve as a measure of his clout in trying to elect a Republican to the House in a closely watched special election that’s seen as a tossup race.”

“It will be his first campaign rally since a tough end of summer that saw slipping poll numbers, warning signs of an economic slowdown and a running battle over hurricane forecasts. Trump will visit the state Monday night on the eve of the House election. He enjoys wide popularity within his own party, but a GOP defeat in a red-leaning state could, when combined with a wave of recent bad headlines, portend trouble for his reelection campaign.”

Politico: “The last, lingering piece of the 2018 election is about to preview the fundamental dynamic shaping the fight for the White House in 2020.”

2019 Campaign NC-9

North Carolina Do Over Election Is a Toss Up

September 5, 2019 · 6:22 am ET · Leave a Comment

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “It is rare for us to leave any race as a Toss-up immediately before an election, but we reserve the right to do it for special elections. Such races have unpredictable rates of turnout and can hinge on unusual circumstances.”

“While we’ve thought the Republicans were better positioned to win the NC-9 do-over special election — and that may end up being the case — the latest data, and the latest circumstances, suggest that the race is close enough that we should make it a Toss-up with less than a week to go until Tuesday’s election.”

2019 Campaign NC-9

Democrats Bet Big on Obamacare to Win In Virginia

September 4, 2019 · 6:45 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Virginia Democrats are betting health care will help them take control of the state legislature in November, following their rout of Republicans two years ago that nearly eliminated the GOP’s hold on the Virginia statehouse” Politico reports.

“Democrats are already pouring tens of thousands of dollars into ads targeting the health care records of GOP incumbents in newly competitive races, hoping to capitalize on recently redrawn legislative districts seen as more favorable to Democrats. And new polling data says health care ranks high for potential voters.”

2019 Campaign, Health Care

McCready Has Edge In North Carolina Do-Over Election

August 30, 2019 · 3:24 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new Harper Polling/Clarity Campaigns Lab poll in North Carolina’s 9th congressional district finds Dan McCready (D) leading Dan Bishop (R) in the do-over congressional race from last year, 46% to 42%, with two third party candidates receiving a combined 3 percent.

When leaners are included, McCready’s advantage extends to 49% to 44%.

2019 Campaign NC-9

A Squeaker Re-Do Election

August 30, 2019 · 7:08 am ET · Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Next month’s special election in North Carolina’s 9th congressional district is truly a squeaker. Internal Republican polling has shown GOP candidate Dan Bishop anywhere from 2 points to 4 points ahead of Democrat Dan McCready. And believe it or not, that’s an improvement, because Bishop was down big in the Charlotte-and-east-area district just a few weeks ago.”

“Democratic party internal polling has McCready up 1 point. So both parties are seeing the same thing: that this race is truly a toss-up, with all results in the margin of error.”

“Remember: This is a district President Trump won by nearly 12 points, and this race is within the margin of error 10 days before Election Day. The president is going to try to move the needle with a visit the week after next, but some Democrats are whispering the trend lines are in their direction, with the early indications favoring McCready. McCready ran in 2018 — so he has a lot of momentum, and recognition.”

2019 Campaign

GOP Worries About Bellwether House Special Election

August 28, 2019 · 9:31 am ET · Leave a Comment

“At a retreat with top GOP donors in Wyoming last week, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy broached a growing concern for senior Republicans: a crucial, do-over election for a North Carolina congressional seat.” Politico reports.

“McCarthy has traveled to the state to help the Republican candidate, state Sen. Dan Bishop, and has pushed his rank-and-file lawmakers to lend a hand. And as he chatted up contributors, he warned that next month’s vote is critical: Following a devastating 2018 election that demolished the House GOP majority, a win in the nationally-watched race would give the party a badly-needed morale boost.”

2019 Campaign NC-9

Reeves Wins GOP Nod for Mississippi Governor

August 27, 2019 · 10:25 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Mississippi Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) has won the Republican nomination for governor and will face Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood (D) and two other candidates in November, the AP reports.

Reeves defeated former Mississippi Supreme Court Justice Bill Waller Jr. in Tuesday’s primary runoff.

2019 Campaign MS-Gov

Beshear’s Poll Shows Big Lead for Kentucky Governor

August 26, 2019 · 6:11 pm ET · Leave a Comment

An internal poll from the campaign of Andy Beshear (D) shows the Democratic challenger leading Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R) by 9 percentage points in the race for governor, 48% to 39%, with a little over two months until the election, the Louisville Courier Journal reports.

The results closely resemble an internal poll conducted by the Democratic Attorneys General Association a week earlier, which found Beshear leading Bevin by the exact same margin.

2019 Campaign KY-Gov

No Unity for Kentucky Republicans

August 22, 2019 · 3:01 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R) defeated challenger Robert Goforth (R) in May’s Republican gubernatorial primary, 52% to 39%.

But a new video suggests the two men haven’t found party unity in advance of the general election.

2019 Campaign KY-Gov

Abraham Up with New Ad for Louisiana Governor

August 22, 2019 · 1:42 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-LA), who’s running for Louisiana governor, is out with a new ad which ends with this line: “As a doctor, I can assure you there are only two genders.”

2019 Campaign LA-Gov

Democrats Spend Big to Take Back Statehouses

August 20, 2019 · 6:59 am ET · Leave a Comment

Associated Press: “Democrats still shaken by the 2010 tea party wave that netted Republicans six governors’ offices, flipped 21 statehouse chambers and drove nearly 700 Democratic state legislators from office are mounting a comeback, pouring millions of dollars into state-level races. … In Virginia, where the GOP holds a slim majority, Democrats have outraised Republicans for the first time in years. Democrats are even putting some money in deeply Republican Louisiana.”

“Democratic donors who gave little-to-nothing to down-ballot races in the past are cutting large checks to groups focused on state races, the AP’s analysis shows. Among them are billionaire George Soros (at least $5.4 million), hedge-fund billionaire Donald Sussman (at least $4.8 million) and billionaire investor and entrepreneur Fred Eychaner (at least $4.2 million).”

2019 Campaign, 2020 Campaign

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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