James Talarico (D) holds leads over both Republicans vying for the competitive U.S. Senate seat, reflecting voters’ surging concerns about the cost of living and dimming views of President Trump’s handling of the economy, according to a new University of Texas poll.

The poll comes one month before Sen. John Cornyn (R) and state Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) vie for the Republican nomination in a hard-fought run-off election that has prolonged Republican infighting in the state.

A new Texas Public Opinion Research survey in finds Ken Paxton (R) leads Sen. John Cornyn (R) in their U.S. Senate runoff, 48% to 40% with 11% undecided.

Key takeaway: A Trump endorsement isn’t enough to flip the race. If Trump endorses Cornyn, Paxton still leads 45% to 42%. A Trump endorsement of Paxton would widen his lead to 55% to 35%. 49% of likely Republican runoff voters say a Trump endorsement would not influence their vote at all or not much.

Bloomberg: “The Republican infighting in Texas isn’t going to die down anytime soon with President Donald Trump no longer expected to endorse either candidate in the state’s increasingly nasty Senate primary runoff.”

“On one side of the fight is Senator John Cornyn, who’s held his seat since 2002 and reliably voted for Trump’s second-term agenda; on the other side is state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a darling of the MAGA movement who’s been trailed by ethics issues in office.”

“By sidestepping an endorsement, Trump and his team are setting up a costly, fractious fight between two allies at a time when the war with Iran is already causing fissures in the MAGA base — and potentially giving an opening to Democrats.”

“Republicans are still waiting on President Donald Trump’s endorsement in the Texas Senate race. And every week without him settling it means more costly spending in the GOP runoff battle between Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton,” Semafor reports.

“When Trump said he would weigh in ‘soon,’ Republicans hoped it meant he’d have backed Cornyn by now. That hasn’t happened, and attacks continue to fly, potentially weakening the eventual GOP nominee.”

President Trump said the Texas Republican Senate candidate that does not get his endorsement should drop out of the race, announcing that he will throw his weight behind the race “soon,” The Hill reports.

The Atlantic reports Trump is expected to endorse Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) over Ken Paxton (R).

Semafor reports Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) will stay neutral in the runoff.

“Rep. Jasmine Crockett conceded to state Rep. James Talarico in the Texas Democratic Senate primary Wednesday morning, after saying on Tuesday that the election could not be called due to a legal dispute over voting precinct hours in Dallas,” Politico reports.

Said Crockett: “Texas is primed to turn blue and we must remain united because this is bigger than any one person. This is about the future of all 30 million Texans and getting America back on track. With the primary behind us, Democrats must rally around our nominees and win.”

Jonathan Last: “The lesson is that Talarico codes as moderate because he looks like a youth pastor and leads with his faith. But if you were grading him by issue sets, he sits closer to Bernie Sanders than, say, Tim Ryan.”

“And Democratic voters noticed. Talarico ran up huge margins with Hispanic voters and I’m guessing that’s because he spoke to their religious convictions. But he also ran up huge margins in counties that were Bernie-curious in 2016. He gathered a coalition of progressives, Hispanics, and college-educated professionals—which is 3/4ths of the Democratic base. The only group he didn’t win over was African Americans.”

“A Democratic candidate who could hold the Talarico coalition while also adding African Americans would be formidable in 2028.”

Nate Silver: “The most obvious path to victory for Talarico would seem to be Beto-on-Steroids, rebounding among Hispanics and taking advantage of Democratic enthusiasm to post some really big numbers in the cities. Are there any indications of Talarico’s ability to do this from the primary? Maybe.”

“Talarico won the most Hispanic counties in Texas by a combined 22 points. He also won the most urban counties by 14 points, but that’s misleading: it’s because Talarico dominated in Austin, winning Travis County by 52 points. But Crockett actually won Dallas and Harris counties. She also won Black counties, especially in East Texas, by wide margins.”

“So we’ll want to see whether there is any lasting damage to Talarico among Black voters from the primary.”

Time: “The prospect of a Talarico nomination has Republicans in Washington worried. One GOP lawmaker keeping a close eye on the midterm map summed up his view in five words: ‘She can’t win. He can.'”

“Talarico isn’t the first candidate to mix topics typically avoided in polite company. But he’s doing it in a way that some in his party see as meeting the moment better than any politician in the country, giving his us-vs-them populism a fresh authority through his religious bonafides.”

Former Vice President Kamala Harris has recorded a robocall for Rep. Jasmine Crockett to turn out voters for the Dallas congresswoman in Tuesday’s hard-fought Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, the Texas Tribune reports.

The call gives Crockett a boost from one of her party’s biggest stars in the homestretch of her primary against state Rep. James Talarico (D).

Republicans are trying to bolster the chances of Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) in the state’s Democratic Senate primary, believing she would be easier to defeat in the midterms than Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D), the Washington Post reports.

“All three Republicans in the Texas Senate race will have one more chance to get a surprise endorsement from President Donald Trump as they shake up their pre-primary plans to join him in Corpus Christi on Friday,” Semafor reports.

“Trump likes to keep Republicans (and everybody else) guessing, and could easily utter something on Friday that nudges Election Day voters toward a candidate. His primary-season message is that loyalty, not incumbency, will determine his support.”

“The message from candidates is: Yes, Mr. President. We get it.”

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) has branded his MAGA primary rival, Ken Paxton, as a “crooked home wrecker” in a blistering new ad accusing him of sleeping with a married mom-of-seven, the Daily Beast reports.

Eli McKown-Dawson: “After every election, political commentators come up with countless theories for why the losing party failed. There’s usually a fair amount of disagreement about the correct lesson. But for 2022, a year when Republicans actually lost a seat in the Senate despite facing an already unpopular Joe Biden, it’s relatively uncontroversial to say that Republicans shot themselves in the foot by nominating a bunch of less-than-stellar candidates. It wasn’t the party’s only problem — the backlash triggered by the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade also hurt the GOP — but still, they lost winnable Senate races in Georgia and Pennsylvania in part because they nominated flawed candidates like Herschel Walker and Dr. Mehmet Oz.”

“The Republican primary in Texas is giving strong 2022 vibes. Cornyn — an establishment figure who has a close relationship with Mitch McConnell and broke with Senate Republicans by not joining lawsuits challenging the certification of 2020 election results — is running against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton is something of a MAGA darling and was recently endorsed by Turning Point USA, although President Trump hasn’t endorsed any one candidate in the race…”

“Paxton is also a scandal-magnet. And by scandals, I don’t mean missing a few votes in the Texas Senate.”

The New Yorker profiles Texas U.S. Senate candidate James Talarico (D):

In May, the former Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke convened a Zoom meeting with Congressman Joaquin Castro, former congressman Colin Allred, and Talarico, to discuss assembling a statewide slate with strong Democratic candidates for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general. Talarico was seen as a potential gubernatorial candidate who could distract Greg Abbott, the powerful incumbent. As one person familiar with the discussion said: “I don’t know if it was exactly like ‘Here’s our sacrificial Talarico lamb for governor’—but pretty much.”

Instead, Talarico argued that his youth and his legislative experience made him better equipped to be a senator. “I told them the fact that I was new, and different, and had no D.C. connection was a huge advantage. They were all retreads—which I said lovingly.”

O’Rourke was nonplussed: “I told him, ‘If you end up being the guy who runs for Senate against the Republican machine, you will want friends on that ticket.’ ” Instead, “James came in, like, ‘I don’t care what you guys are doing with your little huddle. Fuck all y’all, I’m doing this.’ He blew everything up in his excitement to make the case for himself.” O’Rourke called Castro afterward and said, “What the fuck?”

But he also said: “You’re not going to win in this game unless you’re really fucking confident.” 

“The attention surrounding James Talarico‘s Late Show with Stephen Colbert interview has been very good for the Texas Democrat’s campaign for U.S. Senate,” Deadline reports.

“He raised $2.5 million in the 24 hours after the segment was shifted from CBS broadcast to YouTube, his largest single fundraising period for the campaign.”

Stephen Colbert’s sit-down with Texas state Rep. James Talarico (D) reached 3 million views in just 18 hours Tuesday after the network pulled the interview from “The Late Show,” The Wrap reports.

President Trump told reporters last night that he supported John Cornyn, Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt — despite establishment Republicans’ efforts behind the scenes to get Trump to boost Cornyn.