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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192

November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

O’Rourke Raised More Than $9 Million Online Last Month

September 21, 2018 · 2:58 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX) “raised nearly $9.1 million online for his Senate bid in August, according to a new campaign finance filing, increasing the pressure on GOP Sen. Ted Cruz in an unexpectedly close race,” Politico reports.

“The online haul puts O’Rourke on pace to have one of the most prolific fundraising quarters of any Senate candidate in history.”

2018 Campaign TX-Sen

2 Key Senate Races Move Towards Democrats

September 21, 2018 · 8:39 am ET · Leave a Comment

The Cook Political Report moves two U.S. Senate race rankings towards the Democrats:

  • TX-Sen moves from Lean R to Toss Up
  • WV-Sen moves from Toss Up to Lead D

A third race moves towards the Republicans:

  • MT-Sen moves from Likely D to Lean D

Jennifer Duffy: “Generally, races in the Toss Up column don’t break down the middle; one party tends to win a majority of them. Over the past 10 cycles, no party has won less than 67 percent of all Toss Up races. In 2004, 2006 and 2014, one party won 89 percent of the races in the Toss Up column. The working theory for this cycle has been that if Democrats end up winning a majority of the Toss Up races, then the political environment proved to be the factor driving the election.”

2018 Campaign MT-Sen, TX-Sen, WV-Sen

New Poll Shows Cruz Slightly Ahead

September 20, 2018 · 5:25 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new Public Policy Policy survey in Texas finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) slightly ahead of challenger Beto O’Rourke (D), 48% to 45%.

That’s well within the poll’s 4-point margin of error.

2018 Campaign TX-Sen

Dead Heat In Texas

September 20, 2018 · 2:38 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new Vox Populi poll in Texas finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in a dead heat with challenger Beto O’Rourke (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 50%.

2018 Campaign TX-Sen

Member feature

What Those Texas Polls Really Mean

September 20, 2018 · 11:06 am ET · Leave a Comment

The following post for members is by G. Elliot Morris of The Crosstab.

See if you can spot the pattern in these three recently released polls in the Texas Senate race between Beto O’Rourke (D) and Sen. Ted Cruz (R):

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Members, Polling TX-Sen

New Polls In Four Battleground States

September 19, 2018 · 1:07 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Reuters/Ipsos surveyed four U.S. Senate battlegrounds and found very tight races:

  • AZ-Sen: Kyrsten Sinema (D) 47%, Martha McSally (R) 44%
  • FL-Sen: Rick Scott (R) 46%, Bill Nelson (D) 45%
  • NV-Sen: Dean Heller (R) 46%, Jacky Rosen (D) 43%
  • TX-Sen: Beto O’Rourke (D) 47%, Ted Cruz (R) 45%

And the governor’s races in the same states:

  • AZ-Gov: Doug Ducey (R) 51%, David Garcia (D) 39%
  • FL-Gov: Andrew Gillum (D) 50%, Ron DeSantis (R) 44%
  • NV-Gov: Adam Laxalt (R) 43%, Steve Sisolak (D) 40%
  • TX-Gov: Greg Abbott (R) 50%, Lupe Valdez (D) 41%

2018 Campaign AZ-Sen, FL-Sen, NV-Sen, TX-Sen

Cruz Holds Nine Point Lead In Texas

September 18, 2018 · 12:47 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new Quinnipiac poll in Texas finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading Beto O’Rourke (D) by nine points among likely voters, 54% to 45%.

Said pollster Peter Brown: “The Texas U.S. Senate race between Cruz and O’Rourke, and Democratic hopes for an upset win there, have boosted talk of a Senate takeover. These numbers may calm that talk.”

2018 Campaign TX-Sen

Cruz Says O’Rourke Wants to Ban Barbecue

September 17, 2018 · 8:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Searching for a new wedge issue to use against his opponent, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) suggested that Beto O’Rourke (D) wanted to ban barbecue in Texas, the Austin American Statesman reports.

Said Cruz: “When I got here someone told me that even PETA was protesting and giving out barbecued tofu, so I got to say, they summed up the entire election: If Texas elects a Democrat, they’re going to ban barbecue across the state of Texas.”

He added: “You want to talk about an issue to mobilize the people, and I’m talking everybody. So I want to thank PETA and I do want to tell PETA you’re going to have to disclose to the FEC that by coming and protesting and giving away tofu, that you have given an in-kind contribution to my campaign by demonstrating just how bad things can get.”

2018 Campaign TX-Sen

Bush Won’t Help Ted Cruz

September 16, 2018 · 7:28 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Former President George W. Bush is hosting a series of fundraising events for vulnerable Republican candidates, including a couple of House members facing tough re-election bids in his home state of Texas,” the Dallas Morning News reports.

“Noticeably absent from the list is Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, a Republican who is facing a surprisingly robust challenge from Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-TX).”

2018 Campaign TX-Sen

Cruz Holds Small Lead In Texas Senate Race

September 12, 2018 · 5:10 pm ET · Leave a Comment

A new CBS Dallas-Forth Worth/Dixie Strategies poll finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) holds a slim lead over Beto O’Rourke (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 42%.

The differential of four points was within the margin of error of 4.3 points, meaning that the two candidates are statistically tied according to this poll.

2018 Campaign TX-Sen

Quote of the Day

September 12, 2018 · 9:27 am ET · Leave a Comment

“I think he sort of took it for granted. He’s got a dogfight on his hands. I can tell you there’s Beto signs all over my district and there are Beto signs all over deep-red parts of Texas that are unexplainable.”

— Texas state Rep. Lyle Larson (R), quoted by the New York Times, suggesting Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) neglected his re-election race.

2018 Campaign TX-Sen

Cruz Looks to McConnell to Bail Him Out

September 11, 2018 · 10:17 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “These difficulties have come into sharp focus in Texas, where Cruz is fighting for political survival against O’Rourke, a rising liberal star who is raising record-setting sums of cash and attracting large crowds across a ruby-red state. At the end of June, O’Rourke had close to $14 million cash on hand to Cruz’s $9 million.”

“The tough realities of Texas have prompted an unexpected alliance between Cruz and the Republicans he spent years waging a vendetta against as a senator and as a candidate for president — including Trump and McConnell. The sudden cooperation underscores how much the GOP fears losing Texas.”

“The shock waves are being felt well beyond the state, as its several expensive media markets could force the party to spend money there that it will have to subtract from GOP hopefuls in other battlegrounds. McConnell recently assured Cruz in a private conversation that resources would be there for him.”

2018 Campaign TX-Sen

Former Cruz Spokesman Says O’Rourke Could Win

September 9, 2018 · 11:56 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Rick Tyler, who served as Sen. Ted Cruz’s communications director during his 2016 presidential race, told MSNBC that Cruz could lose his re-election race.

Said Tyler: “It’s possible — people say no, it’s not possible because again you look at Texas and say ‘it’s a red state and it’s never going to happen’ but Beto O’Rourke has consistently out-fundraised him two-to-one, and he doesn’t take PAC money.”

He added: “It should be a 10 to 15 point race, it’s not, it’s a zero to four point race.”

2018 Campaign TX-Sen

Bonus Quote of the Day

September 9, 2018 · 6:18 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“We are seeing tens of millions of dollars flooding into the state of Texas from liberals all over the country who desperately want to turn the state of Texas blue. They want us to be just like California, right down to tofu and silicon and dyed hair.”

— Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), quoted by CNN.

2018 Campaign TX-Sen

Inside the GOP Effort to Save Ted Cruz

September 9, 2018 · 6:14 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“With a string of polls showing GOP Sen. Ted Cruz’s lead slipping, Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick showed up in Washington on July 25 to deliver an urgent plea to White House officials: Send President Trump,” Politico reports.

“Patrick, who chaired Trump’s 2016 campaign in the state, made the case that a Trump visit was needed to boost turnout for Cruz and the rest of the Texas Republican ticket.”

“The previously unreported meeting comes as senior Republicans grow increasingly concerned about the senator’s prospects in the reliably red state, with some expressing fear that an underperformance could threaten GOP candidates running further down the ballot.”

2018 Campaign TX-Sen

Trump Adviser Says Cruz Could Lose Seat

September 8, 2018 · 3:53 pm ET · Leave a Comment

President Trump’s budget chief, Mick Mulvaney, expressed confidence to Republican donors that the party would overcome a Democratic “movement of hate” in November, but he acknowledged Republicans could lose races where they have nominated candidates who are not seen as “likable” enough, like Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), the New York Times reports.

Said Mulvaney: “They want you to think there’s a blue wave when there’s not.”

But Mr. Mulvaney “conceded that Republicans had nominated poor candidates in places and might struggle to defend a huge number of open House seats where Republican incumbents decided not to run for re-election.”

2018 Campaign TX-Sen

O’Rourke Could Have Down-Ballot Implications

September 7, 2018 · 7:36 am ET · Leave a Comment

David Wasserman: “There’s scant evidence that Beto O’Rourke’s 254-county tour has moved the needle much in rural Texas, where Democrats hope would-be Cruz voters will simply stay home. But it’s a different story in Texas’s upscale suburbs: private polling on both sides now shows O’Rourke substantially outperforming Hillary Clinton’s percentages in multiple highly college-educated districts near Houston and Dallas.”

“That’s serious cause for concern for Houston GOP Rep. John Culberson (TX-07) and Dallas GOP Rep. Pete Sessions (TX-32), who sit in seats Clinton carried and are already in the Toss Up column. But it also should be a wake up call for several other Republicans who haven’t had a competitive race before but sit in upscale suburban seats President Trump carried with less than 52 percent of the vote.”

2018 Campaign Beto O'Rourke, TX-Sen

Beto O’Rourke’s First Album Found

September 3, 2018 · 7:24 pm ET · Leave a Comment

The HuffPost got a copy of the first album from Texas U.S. Senate candidate Beto O’Rourke’s punk band Foss and concludes, “It’s not bad at all.”

The recording came from former bandmate Cedric Bixler-Zavala who said he stands behind O’Rourke: “I truly believe Beto to be the answer. He really gives a fuck.”

Texas Republicans mocked the cover of the album in a tweet last week.

2018 Campaign Beto O'Rourke, TX-Sen

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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