A new Emerson College poll in Nevada finds that Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) holds a 7-point lead against challenger Jacky Rosen (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 48% to 41% among likely voters.
For comparison, the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Heller ahead by 1.7%.
First Read: “Just 23.2% of adults over 25 in Nevada have a bachelor’s degree or higher… There are just five states with a lower share — and all of them are Trump-friendly states in the American South: Louisiana (23%), Kentucky (22.7%), Arkansas (21.5%), Mississippi (21%) and West Virginia (19.6%).”
“And Nevada has the third-lowest share of women over 25 who have a bachelor’s degree or higher, also 23.2%. The others: Mississippi (22.6%), Arkansas (22.2%) and West Virginia (20.1%).”
“The recent Democrat success in Nevada — Obama in 2008 and 2012, Harry Reid in 2010 and Hillary Clinton in 2016 — has been due largely to the growing Latino vote in Nevada. But the college-educated white women that are fueling much of the Democratic resistance across the country? There aren’t as many of them in Nevada as there are in, say, the Midwest.”
A new NBC News/Marist poll in Nevada finds Sen. Dean Heller (R-NY) leading challenger Jacky Rosen (D), 46% to 44%.
A new CNN/SRSS poll in Nevada finds Jacky Rosen (D) leading Sen. Dean Heller (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 43% among likely voters.
Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) called President Trump “a great leader” who had revived Nevada’s economy, a striking departure from the arm’s-length approach Mr. Heller took with Mr. Trump in the 2016 campaign and in the first months of his presidency, the New York Times reports.
“In a private conference call with White House aides, other Nevada Republican officials and local activists, Mr. Heller — the most endangered Senate Republican up for re-election this November — offered an unqualified embrace of the president.”
Said Heller: “Our arms are wide open. We’re so thrilled to have the president.”
Reuters/Ipsos surveyed four U.S. Senate battlegrounds and found very tight races:
And the governor’s races in the same states:
A new Reno Gazette Journal/Suffolk poll in Nevada finds Jacky Rosen (D) barely ahead of Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) in the U.S. Senate race, 42% to 41%.
In the governor’s race, Steve Sisolak (D) holds a two point advantage over Adam Laxalt (R), 37% to 35%.
The Koch political network announced that it does not currently plan to support Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) in his effort to unseat Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D-ND), “one of the most vulnerable Democrats up for reelection this November,” the Washington Post reports.
“Heitkamp’s race is a top pickup opportunity for Republicans, who are trying to retain their slim two-seat majority in the Senate. Heitkamp, the only Democrat who holds statewide office in North Dakota, is running for reelection in a state that President Trump won by more than 35 points.”
“Koch network also has no current plans to back Senate candidates in Nevada and Indiana.”
President Trump “tried to give a boost to Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) in Las Vegas on Saturday, dubbing opponent Jacky Rosen as “Wacky Jacky” while brushing past the immigration controversy that has overwhelmed his presidency in recent days,” Politico reports.
Said Trump: “You don’t want her as your senator. Now, that name didn’t come from me. That’s a name that people have known because people that know her, that’s what they call her, Wacky Jacky, that’s what you want for your senator?”
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Nevada finds that Jacky Rosen (D) leads Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) in the U.S. Senate race by a narrow 44% to 42% margin, with 14% of still undecided.
The poll also found a plurality of Nevadans said they supported the Affordable Care Act, and with a majority saying they disapproved of both Heller and President Trump’s job performance.
From a new Axios/Survey Monkey poll:
ARIZONA: Kyrsten Sinema (D) 51%, Martha McSally (R) 42%
ARIZONA: Kyrsten Sinema (D) 51%, Kelli Ward (R) 43%
ARIZONA: Kyrsten Sinema (D) 56%, Joe Arpaio (R) 32%
NEVADA: Jacky Rosen (D) 50%, Dean Heller (R) 44%
TENNESSEE: Phil Bredesen (D) 48%, Marsha Blackburn (R) 47%
A new Nevada Independent/Mellman poll in Nevada shows Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) barely ahead of challenger Jacky Rosen (D), 40% to 39%.
Key finding: “Rosen, who had never held office before her congressional race, lagged Heller significantly in name recognition among poll respondents, with 34% saying they had never heard of her compared to only 8% unfamiliar with him.”
Danny Tarkanian (R) said he will drop his primary challenge to Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) and instead run again for the southern Nevada House seat he sought unsuccessfully in 2016 after eleventh-hour intervention from President Trump to clear Heller’s primary path, Politico reports.
“Dean Heller knows he’s the most vulnerable Republican senator in the country. But he thinks Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy might just help him hang on to his seat,” Politico reports.
Said Heller: “Kennedy is going to retire around sometime early summer. Which I’m hoping will get our base a little motivated because right now they’re not very motivated. But I think a new Supreme Court justice will get them motivated.”
Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) said that “overall” he was inclined to support President Trump’s immigration framework, “the latest sign that the vulnerable incumbent is siding with the president in the legislative trenches of Congress,” Politico reports.
A new JMC Analytics poll in Nevada shows Danny Tarkanian (R) leading Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) in a Republican U.S. Senate primary, 39% to 31%, with 31% still undecided.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Wonk Wire, Political Job Hunt and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
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