“Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT), the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, is recruiting retired U.S. Army Captain Sam Brown to run for Nevada’s U.S. Senate seat in 2024,” the Nevada Independent reports.
“Brown, who suffered severe burns during a deployment in Afghanistan, previously ran for a U.S. Senate seat in the state’s 2022 Republican primary, running a spirited but ultimately unsuccessful primary campaign against former Attorney General Adam Laxalt.”
“Jim Marchant, a former Republican state assemblyman and one of the state’s most prominent election deniers, is planning to run for Nevada’s U.S. Senate seat in 2024,” the Nevada Independent reports.
“No Nevada Republicans have officially entered the race to challenge Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) for re-election to the Senate in 2024, but at least one potential candidate is staying out of the race,” the Nevada Independent reports.
“Rep. Mark Amodei (R-NV) – Nevada’s sole Republican in Congress – said he plans to continue to serve in the House of Representatives.”
Jon Ralston: “The lessons of Election ’22 in Nevada are multifarious —candidates and campaigns have never mattered more, independents are not who we thought they were and the Republicans blew a chance that may not come again soon.”
“In a state where the president was under 40 percent in even some Democratic polls, gas prices were some of the highest in the country and inflation was soaring, the real, underlying story about this cycle is that deniers were denied. Oh, I don’t mean election deniers, although the three most dangerous (Laxalt, Michele Fiore and Jim Marchant) all lost.”
“I refer to Reid machine deniers, who were the authors of and sources for many election prebuttals — and who were proved wrong. Again.”
Washington Post: “The machine works as a unit so that all Democrats on the ticket run as one. This cycle it worked with allies in the state legislature to pass universal mail-in voting and the rules around counting those mail-in ballots, which successfully expanded voter access.”
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) is projected to win the U.S. Senate race in Nevada, NBC News reports.
Her victory means Democrats are guaranteed to retain control of the Senate.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) and Adam Laxalt (R) are essentially tied in the closely watched U.S. Senate race that could determine party control of the Senate, the Las Vegas Review Journal reports.
Nevada Senate candidate Adam Laxalt (R) is preparing to ask for a statewide recount as his race against incumbent Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) goes down to the wire, the Daily Mail reports.
Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) went so far as to suggest fraud in Nevada if Adam Laxalt (R) isn’t declared the winner of the U.S. Senate race, Politico reports.
Said Graham: “There is no mathematical way Laxalt loses. If he does, then it’s a lie.”
“No evidence of election fraud has emerged and independent analysts have been expecting Cortez Masto to take the lead for days based on the number of outstanding mail votes in the most Democratic part of the state.”
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) continues to gain on challenger Adam Laxalt (R) as the remaining votes are counted.
Laxalt now leads by less than 9,000 votes.
The AP reports officials are counting votes “as quickly as we can,” but still have 50,000 ballots outstanding in critical Clark County.
Playbook: “According to the latest numbers from Jon Ralston and Sean Golonka of the Nevada Independent, there are about 110,000 mail ballots left to be counted from the two big urban counties, Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno).”
“Even if Cortez Masto and Laxalt split those ballots well below her current rate of 65%-30%, Ralston notes, she will overtake Laxalt. There are also some outstanding rural ballots that will help Laxalt, and there are things like provisional ballots and cured ballots that all have to be tabulated by Saturday.”
“But according to the data nerds here, based on the known universe of outstanding ballots, Cortez Masto has a path to victory. And with Sen. Mark Kelly leading Blake Masters in Arizona by five points with 76% of the vote in, the Democrats could keep the Senate even without winning the Dec. 6 Georgia runoff.”
Jon Ralston: “Here’s what we know on the Nevada Senate race, if we assume the rurals are all but spent, will only add a couple thousand at most to Laxalt’s lead: If CCM continues to win urban mail at current clip, taking 65%, she will easily overtake Laxalt with 110,000 mail (at least) left.”
“The Nevada Senate race is still really close, with Republican candidate Adam Laxalt holding between a 2- and 3-point lead over Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto,” FiveThirtyEight reports.
“But it looks like there are more Democratic votes left to be counted than Republican ones — especially regarding mail-in ballots, which Nevada accepts as long as they were postmarked by Election Day and arrive by Nov. 12.”
Jon Ralston does the math and concludes Cortez Masto has a shot at winning.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) has trailed her challenger, Adam Laxalt (R), in recent polls and Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) is also trailing his challenger, Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo, the Los Angeles Times reports.
“But in Las Vegas, the Democrats may have an ace up their sleeve: They have the backing of the highly motivated and influential Culinary Workers Union Local 226, a 60,000-member organization of Las Vegas hotel staff that has a strong history of canvassing and turning elections in their favor.”
Jon Ralston predicts Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) will hang on to win re-election.
“Red wave or not, candidates and campaigns matter. Adam Laxalt is an abysmal candidate who has lived on his last name for credibility and fundraising since he moved here a decade ago. Anyone with an R after his or her name would be competitive this cycle, and his automaton-like performance, where he can disgorge puerile talking points to thrill the faithful and avoid any serious questioning (a candidate for governor and Senate who never debated!) has been something to behold.”
However, Ralston is not so sure about Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) and thinks challenger Joe Lombardo (R) can pull out a narrow victory.
A new Nevada Independent/OH Predictive Insights poll finds Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) leading challenger Adam Laxalt (R) by two points, 43% to 41%.
In the governor’s race, Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) leads Joe Lombardo (R) by four points, 45% to 41%.
Down ballot, Democratic candidates for several statewide offices — attorney general, secretary of state and treasurer — also led their respective Republican opponents by slim margins.
“Democrats in Nevada hold both U.S. Senate seats, the governor’s mansion and three of its four U.S. House seats. The state hasn’t backed a Republican presidential candidate since 2004,” the AP reports.
“But as this year’s midterm elections approach, the party’s grip on power is under threat. Catherine Cortez Masto has been called the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate. Gov. Steve Sisolak is facing a spirited reelection challenge from Republican Joe Lombardo. And the GOP could pick up two House seats in Nevada, which would put the party well on its way to regaining the majority in Washington.”
“The dynamics pose a severe test for the sophisticated organization that the late Sen. Harry Reid spent years building to give Democrats an edge in the swing state.”
“The two candidates in one of the country’s most competitive Senate races have no plans to debate before Election Day, making the contest an anomaly among battleground states this year,” NBC News reports.
“With less than four weeks until the Nov. 8 election, neither Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto nor her Republican challenger, Adam Laxalt, have given any sign of breaking a stalemate over whether they would meet face to face on stage.”
Fourteen members of Nevada U.S. Senate candidate Adam Laxalt’s (R) family announced that they would collectively endorse his opponent, Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D), the Nevada Independent reports.
New York Times: “The race is tight, with most of the latest polls showing Mr. Laxalt up by a sliver. Without mentioning him by name, Mr. Laxalt’s family members argued that Ms. Cortez Masto would serve Nevada far better than their relative, who has emerged in recent years as a die-hard Trump loyalist eager to push the former president’s stolen-election lies.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.