Catherine Cortez Masto Has Path to Victory in Nevada

Playbook: “According to the latest numbers from Jon Ralston and Sean Golonka of the Nevada Independent, there are about 110,000 mail ballots left to be counted from the two big urban counties, Clark (Las Vegas) and Washoe (Reno).”

“Even if Cortez Masto and Laxalt split those ballots well below her current rate of 65%-30%, Ralston notes, she will overtake Laxalt. There are also some outstanding rural ballots that will help Laxalt, and there are things like provisional ballots and cured ballots that all have to be tabulated by Saturday.”

“But according to the data nerds here, based on the known universe of outstanding ballots, Cortez Masto has a path to victory. And with Sen. Mark Kelly leading Blake Masters in Arizona by five points with 76% of the vote in, the Democrats could keep the Senate even without winning the Dec. 6 Georgia runoff.”

Jon Ralston: “Here’s what we know on the Nevada Senate race, if we assume the rurals are all but spent, will only add a couple thousand at most to Laxalt’s lead: If CCM continues to win urban mail at current clip, taking 65%, she will easily overtake Laxalt with 110,000 mail (at least) left.”