2018 Campaign

6 GOP Incumbents Ousted in Oklahoma

“At least six Republican incumbents were bounced from office during Oklahoma’s primary election, including several who were targeted by pro-education groups,” the AP reports.

“Tuesday’s primary election was the first test for many of the nearly 100 teachers running for office in Oklahoma after a year that saw tens of thousands of educators walk off their job for two weeks to protest dwindling funding for schools.”

Democrats Hold Lead In Key New Jersey District

A new Monmouth poll in New Jersey’s 11th congressional district finds Mikie Sherrill (D) with a slight lead over Jay Webber (R), 40% to 38% among likely voters.

“Neither candidate is particularly well-known at this point in the race, but Democratic enthusiasm is giving this traditionally red district a purplish hue. The poll also finds that the GOP tax reform plan does not play all that well in one of the richest congressional districts in the country.”

“The Democrat’s advantage widens when applying two different likely voter models. A historical midterm model gives Sherrill a 44% to 40% lead, while a model that includes a turnout surge in Democratic precincts gives Sherrill a 45% to 39% lead.”

Crowley’s Defeat Is a Message to Democrats

David Wasserman: “The Tea Party waves of 2010 and 2014 didn’t topple many House GOP incumbents in primaries, but they did take out House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. Much in the same way, the hardcore Resistance took out Crowley but could help power Democrats to gains this fall.”

“Crowley’s exit begins the conversation about the next generation of House Democratic leadership anew. Less senior members likely to receive more attention include Reps. Cheri Bustos (IL-17), Joe Kennedy III (MA-04), Linda Sanchez (CA-38), Katherine Clark (MA-05), Seth Moulton (MA-06), Ruben Gallego (AZ-07) and others. And, any aspirants will need to be on good terms with the party’s increasingly dominant progressive base.”

Mike DeBonis: “Crowley loss does not sound like a win for Pelosi/Hoyer. It sounds like Taps for the whole Dem hierarchy. Wake-up call for a party that has put off a generational change for too long.”

Crowley Defeated In Primary

Washington Post: “The fourth-ranking Democrat in the House has lost his bid for another term: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a 28-year-old activist who ran on abolishing ICE and making Medicare a universal program, defeated Rep. Joe Crowley (D-NY) in an upset.”

“Crowley is the first incumbent Democrat to lose renomination since 2014, when a Massachusetts Democrat was brought down by scandal. Crowley, who was first elected in 1998, had grown his profile inside the party and faced no personal controversies.”

New York Times: “The race was not close. Ms. Ocasio-Cortez had more than 57 percent of the vote, with almost all precincts reporting.”

Jealous Will Take on Hogan In Maryland

“Former NAACP chief Ben Jealous declared victory in Maryland’s Democratic primary for governor Tuesday, promising to deliver a progressive agenda that makes college free, legalizes marijuana and raises the state’s minimum wage to $15 an hour,” the Baltimore Sun reports.

“Bolstered by support in the Baltimore region, spending from outside groups and an aggressive union-backed turnout machine, Jealous emerged from the six-way primary as Democrats’ bet to take on popular Republican Gov. Larry Hogan in November.”

Grimm Fails In Comeback Attempt

Rep. Dan Donovan (R-NY) “successfully fended off a fierce challenge from his predecessor, Michael Grimm, avoiding the ignominious fate of losing re-election to a convicted tax cheat,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Grimm had resigned his Staten Island seat in 2014 and pleaded guilty to felony tax evasion, serving seven months in prison. But not long after he was paroled, Mr. Grimm began plotting his comeback bid to unseat Mr. Donovan, the former Staten Island district attorney who had replaced him in Washington.”

Kaine Holds Wide Lead In Re-Election Bid

A new Quinnipiac poll in Virginia finds Sen. Tim Kaine (D-VA) leading challenger Corey Stewart (R) by a wide margin, 54% to 36%.

Also interesting: “Only 32% of Virginia voters have a favorable opinion of the Republican Party, while 59% have an unfavorable opinion. The Democratic Party gets a divided 46% to 45% favorability rating.”

Said pollster Peter Brown: “Virginia, which was once a solidly red state, has made the full transition to a blue bastion. Voters in the Old Dominion are happy with the way things are going in their state and they give their statewide Democratic office-holders good approval ratings.”

GOP Incumbent Trails In Key Virginia District

A new Monmouth poll in Virginia’s 10th congressional district finds Jennifer Wexton (D) with a big lead over incumbent Rep. Barbara Comstock (R-VA), 49% to 39%, among all potential voters – that is voters who have participated in an election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote.

“The race does not look significantly different using two different likely voter models. A historical midterm model gives Wexton a 50% to 41% lead, while a model that includes a turnout surge in areas where Pres. Donald Trump is unpopular gives Wexton a 51% to 40% lead.”