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Republicans Find There Is No Escape From Trump

September 6, 2026 · 5:40 am ET · Leave a Comment

“In the White House Rose Garden last week, President Trump gathered some of the most politically endangered House Republicans for a dinner where he promised to make himself the face of the party’s uphill battle to keep control of Congress,” the New York Times reports.

“The scene encapsulated the box that GOP lawmakers have found themselves in as they stare down a bleak political environment.”

“They cannot afford to snub Mr. Trump, needing help from his enormous financial reserves and strong turnout from his base to win their campaigns. But they also do not want the election to be a referendum on the president, whose popularity is at a record low. And so far, he has shown little appetite for focusing on anyone’s political needs besides his own.”

2018 Campaign, House of Representatives

Some Republicans to Skip GOP Midterm Convention

September 3, 2026 · 2:14 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Ahead of next week’s Republican Midterm Convention in Dallas, Texas, which is set to tout President Donald Trump’s record at a time when he still faces low approval ratings and a negative political environment, several battleground Republicans said that they either aren’t going to the convention or are still undecided,” ABC News reports.

2018 Campaign, Republicans

Trump Says He’ll Campaign for Republicans in 35 Races

September 3, 2026 · 5:56 am ET · Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump pledged Wednesday to hit the campaign trail for Republican candidates in 35 races this fall in the lead-up to the November midterm elections,” NBC News reports.

Said Trump: “I’m going to take the final 30 days, and maybe a little bit more than that, because it’s all about 35 races. I’m going to go to every one of those 35 places, and we’re going to see if we can get everyone elected.”

NOTUS: Trump’s great American road trip.

2018 Campaign, White House

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Primary Season Draws to a Close

September 2, 2026 · 10:58 am ET · Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “Only three states still have primary elections pending before the crucial midterm elections to determine which party controls Congress during the last two years of President Donald Trump’s term.”

“New Hampshire and Rhode Island hold elections next week, and the final primary of the season will be in Delaware on Sept. 15.”

See the Political Calendar for the latest.

2018 Campaign

Democrats Return to Washington Eager to Flip House

August 31, 2026 · 9:26 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Democrats are seen as the overwhelming favorite to win back the House in just over two months. They aren’t looking to leave anything to chance,” Bloomberg reports.

“At least a couple dozen House Democrats are defending purplish districts this fall, and even more blue candidates are vying to flip Republican-held seats.”

“Democratic groups’ ad spending is ramping up in districts everywhere from Florida to Arizona to Washington state, with messages laser-focused on the cost of living — particularly healthcare.”

2018 Campaign, House of Representatives

Clyburn Says Impeaching Trump Shouldn’t Be Priority

August 30, 2026 · 11:44 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC) on Sunday said that Democrats should not prioritize impeaching President Donald Trump if they win control of the House in the upcoming midterm elections, but instead should focus on making life more affordable for Americans,” NBC News reports.

2018 Campaign, House of Representatives

Government Equity Stakes Face Election Risks

August 29, 2026 · 10:35 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Traders have made a bundle over the past year following President Donald Trump as the U.S. government pursues an unprecedented strategy of taking ownership stakes in publicly traded companies,” Bloomberg reports.

“But with the deeply polarized midterm elections approaching and polls suggesting the Democratic Party is likely to win a majority in at least one house of Congress, market strategists see rising risks of the administration’s equity positions.”

2018 Campaign, Financial Markets, White House

Some Democrats Trying to Reclaim the Issue of Faith

August 17, 2026 · 7:30 am ET · Leave a Comment

“For years, Republicans have had a lock on those who base their vote on their religious preferences and values, but this year’s midterm elections have seen some Democratic candidates sharing their faith to try to connect with voters,” ABC News reports.

“Starting in the 1980s, in what one expert called an ‘exodus,’ there was a shift of voters to the Republican Party based on moral issues.”

“But in some of the most critical races that will help decide control of the next Congress, several Democrats are openly sharing how their faith shapes them and their politics.”

2018 Campaign, Religion

Could Abdul El-Sayed Cost Democrats Michigan?

August 16, 2026 · 5:51 am ET · Leave a Comment

Nate Cohn: “When the midterm election campaign began, Michigan seemed like a state that Democrats could take for granted in their pursuit of the Senate. Yes, it’s a presidential battleground state, but that makes it the kind of state that Democrats would ordinarily win easily in what seems like a strongly Democratic midterm cycle.”

“It’s not a state Democrats can take for granted anymore. There are clear signs that the newly minted Democratic nominee, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, could underperform a typical Democratic candidate’s vote share by enough to endanger the party’s chances.”

2018 Campaign

GOP Finds Its Next Progressive Target in Minnesota

August 14, 2026 · 6:51 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Republicans have a new name on their growing list of progressive midterm targets: Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, fresh off a landslide Senate primary win,” Axios reports.

“With President Trump’s approval ratings in the 30s, Republicans are trying to turn the midterms from a referendum on him into a choice between the GOP and a Democratic Party they argue has moved sharply to the left.”

“That means portraying some progressive Democrats who’ve won statewide primaries as national foils. The strategy came into focus last week, after Abdul El-Sayed’s victory in Michigan’s Senate primary.”

2018 Campaign, State House

Trump Calls Democratic Candidates ‘Jihadists’

August 10, 2026 · 7:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“President Trump on Monday described Democratic candidates in the midterm elections as ‘jihadists,’ adding to Islamophobic statements recently made by Republican elected officials,” the New York Times reports.

“Mr. Trump also delivered another tirade against people of Somali descent, saying: ‘They’re not smart, they have no aptitude, they have nothing going, and they’re telling us how to run our country.'”

2018 Campaign, Race, White House

Quote of the Day

August 7, 2026 · 10:04 am ET · Leave a Comment

“I know that it was a bitter end to this very long primary, but I also know that Haley brings the best of herself to her work. She is one of the most committed public servants that you’ll ever meet. She loves democracy like I love democracy, and whatever differences that we might have had in the primary, they pale in comparison to what unifies us.”

— Michigan U.S. Senate candidate Abdul E-Sayed (D), quoted by NewsNation. 

2018 Campaign, Democrats

Why Polling Overestimated Abdul El-Sayed’s Advantage

August 5, 2026 · 5:24 pm ET · Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Conducting surveys in partisan primaries has long presented a challenge to pollsters, as it requires them to make assumptions about who will actually turn out to vote. Without mandatory party registration in Michigan, pollsters must guess who will show up on Election Day.”

“Many surveys assumed political independents would make up 30 to 40 percent of the electorate. These polls showed Dr. El-Sayed winning independents by a wide margin. While there is little authoritative detail available on the actual electorate, that assumption could have contributed to the challenge in polling the race, as voters who decline to identify with a political party tend to vote less frequently.”

2018 Campaign, Polling

Trump Looks to Lock in His Control of the GOP

August 2, 2026 · 10:49 am ET · Leave a Comment

“President Trump doesn’t much care if Republicans lose the House and/or the Senate in the midterms this fall,” Axios reports.

“Yes, he’d prefer a big win, but he seems indifferent to the election and the possibility of endless Democratic investigations of his family, wealth and policies, his closest advisers tell us.”

”A big reason: Trump knows he’ll emerge just as strong, or even stronger, heading into his final two years, at least among Republicans.”

2018 Campaign, Republicans

Divided Democrats Face a Moment of Truth in Michigan

July 31, 2026 · 5:45 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Democratic socialists look like they’re about to rack up a stunning new victory: Their candidate in Michigan’s Senate Democratic primary has the momentum heading into Tuesday’s primary,” Axios reports.

“A win by Abdul El-Sayed in the swing state would turbocharge the party’s left flank and validate establishment fears about the party’s direction.”

”Establishment Democrats have watched in horror as democratic socialist candidates pull off one win after another in House primaries this year. The Michigan primary brings the ideological clash to its biggest stage yet.”

The Economist: The Democratic primary for Senate in Michigan is a contest for control of the party.

2018 Campaign, Democrats, State House

Democrats Narrow GOP Cash Advantage

July 22, 2026 · 10:44 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Republicans are heading into the fall campaign season with a lopsided cash advantage across their flagship committees and super PACs, but Democrats narrowed the gap with stronger fundraising by individual candidates,” the Washington Post reports.

”The latest campaign finance reports showed the GOP’s wealth concentrated in the hands of President Donald Trump and his advisers, as super PACs and party committees they control dominated the party’s fundraising. Democrats, by contrast, spread their contributions across individual congressional candidates, making them better-equipped than their head-to-head opponents.”

Washington Post: Democrats chip away at GOP cash lead centered on Trump.

2018 Campaign, Campaign Finance

GOP Strategy Is to Make It a ‘Hate Election’

July 19, 2026 · 11:55 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Republicans admit the GOP’s midterm forecast is bleak. But they’re clinging to two hopes: voters’ fear and loathing of Democrats,” Axios reports.

Said one Republican close to Trump: “It’s going to be a hate election. Voters have to hate the Dems more than they hate us. And we have material to work with.”

“There’s broad GOP frustration that Trump has made challenging midterm elections worse by not focusing heavily on pocketbook issues — especially the tax cuts Republicans won — while launching the Iran war, which raised gas prices and fueled inflation.”

2018 Campaign, Political Strategy

Nate Silver Updates His Forecast

July 13, 2026 · 1:06 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Nate Silver: “With the Democratic lead on the generic ballot (currently about D+6), you’d expect them to overcome the Republican advantage from redistricting. That could grow, because most polls right now are among registered voters, and Democrats are likely to have an enthusiasm advantage that will show up once there’s a switch to likely-voter polls.”

“In the Senate, to win those four seats, Maine is a problem. There’s not much polling on non-Platner alternatives versus Collins, and any bridge burning by him on the way out could make it hard to unify around the new nominee.”

2018 Campaign, Polling

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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