Incumbency Is Much Less Valuable Now

Nathaniel Rakich: “For decades, running as an incumbent was undoubtedly a huge advantage in electoral politics. As recently as 20 years ago, holding office added an average of 8 percentage points to a candidate’s margin.”

“But in this century, experts say, the incumbency advantage has significantly diminished. Now the verdict is in for the 2018 election: According to our method of calculating it… the electoral benefit of already being a member of Congress this year was down to less than 3 points.”