Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 188
Nothing to See Here
“The blunt tool of banning diesel exports definitely doesn’t work. That same refinery that produces diesel also produces gasoline and jet fuel, so if you can’t export the diesel that comes out of our refineries, you run out of places to store it, and you have to reduce U.S. refining, which would put upward pressure on gasoline prices and jet-fuel prices.”
— Energy Secretary Chris Wright, quoted by The Economist, as the White House is reportedly mulling a ban on diesel exports.
“The Trump administration is preparing a plan to ban exports of diesel for 90 days, despite splits inside the administration and with the oil industry, in a bid to bring down energy prices weighing on Republicans leading into the midterms,” Politico reports.
“A U.S. ban on diesel exports would rapidly fill domestic storage, depress the fuel’s prices and ultimately shrink gasoline supply while pushing up costs at the pump, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s co-head of global commodities research,” Bloomberg reports.
Said Goldman’s Daan Struyven: “All the things equal, lower diesel prices would incentivize refiners to reduce their production. And because gasoline and diesel are usually produced together as a bundle with some flexibility, it would likely reduce the availability of gasoline.”
“American oil executives thought they had won their fight to persuade Washington to keep diesel shipments flowing. Then, President Trump spoke up,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“On the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York on Tuesday, he said he is considering restricting diesel exports. Prices have climbed to record levels ahead of the midterm elections in November, threatening some of the president’s Republican allies in Congress. Diesel is used by commercial truckers, farmers and others to move everything from groceries to electronic gadgets to the market.”
“Trump’s support for the idea blindsided industry officials.”
Nate Silver: “Inflation in fuel prices is much higher in diesel-heavy farm states — and may explain some surprisingly competitive Senate races.”
“President Trump said Tuesday he is considering restricting diesel exports in an effort to curb soaring fuel prices, an idea that is quickly gaining traction with more Republicans ahead of the midterm elections,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Said Trump: “I’ve called for that, too. I said, ‘Let’s not send out the diesel.’ We make a lot of diesel. It could have a little of an effect on regular automobile gasoline, because when you do that, it’s sort of a flow, a balance. I’ve called for it—I’ve called for it with my people.”
Financial Times: Trump says he would back U.S. diesel export ban.
“Republican lawmakers are ratcheting up pressure on Donald Trump to ban diesel exports as surging prices squeeze American farmers and truckers just weeks ahead of pivotal midterm elections,” the Financial Times reports.
“There was a rising clamour for an intervention on Monday from politicians representing agricultural districts as the price of diesel, the lifeblood of American industry and its farming heartlands, jumped to a fresh record of $6.51 a gallon.”
“Congressional Republicans have grown increasingly concerned about the impact of high diesel fuel costs on their constituents, including Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, who wrote on social media on Saturday that the prices were ‘killing farmers income,'” the Washington Post reports.
“In his post on X, Grassley, a corn and soybean farmer, questioned why President Donald Trump has not pursued an export ban, as was done during a surge in prices in the 1970s.”
Washington Sun: Farmers are “pissed” over Trump’s moves on beef and tariffs.
Associated Press: “When President Donald Trump launched his war against Iran in late February, energy analysts issued dire warnings that oil prices could more than double during a protracted conflict and urged investors and motorists to buckle up for a bumpy ride.”
“The war grinds on and oil prices certainly remain volatile. But the most dire projections have not yet come to pass six months into a conflict that has no end in sight.”
“Chinese President Xi Jinping, who is making a much-anticipated state visit to Washington next week, could make a credible argument that the world has his country’s energy strategy to thank for that.”
“For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don’t have a baseline view. We simply don’t know how to model the endgame.”
— A report from JP Morgan, quoted by Axios.
“The effects of the U.S.-led war on Iran are about to intensify in the form of huge jumps in the prices of gasoline and diesel, analysts predict. And despite the Trump administration’s assurances, a new and potentially even more economically damaging phase of the war may be about to begin,” the Washington Post reports.
“One of the most important lessons from the war with Iran is one that few saw coming,” the New York Times reports.
“The conflict has made clear that China, which has long been highly vulnerable to oil supply shocks, has managed to transform that weakness into a surprising source of geopolitical power. The country made that big shift by stockpiling huge amounts of oil, building extra oil refining capacity and investing in coal and other alternatives. And in the early months of the war, it flexed that power by cutting off supplies of jet fuel, gasoline and diesel to neighboring countries.”
“That has big implications for the global energy industry, where oil producers like Saudi Arabia and the United States — not importers like China — have traditionally held most of the cards.”
“Already dominant in solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles, China now appears to have an unparalleled position across the energy landscape.”
“Crude oil inventories in the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve have fallen to their lowest level in nearly 44 years, raising new questions about the country’s ability to respond to another major disruption in global oil supplies,” Energy Now reports.
“At least two foreign tankers bound for American shores were targeted in cyberattacks now under U.S. government investigation, fueling concerns that Iran or other adversaries are seeking to widen the Middle East conflict,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Yemen is the latest domino to fall in the chain of instability set off by the U.S. war with Iran, a development that deepens the risk to global energy supplies and complicates efforts to find a diplomatic off-ramp to the conflict,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The impoverished country has long been at war in a forgotten corner of the world. But the lightning offensive by Iran-backed Houthi militants who seized key territory around the strategic Bab al-Mandeb Strait last week has made Yemen an important variable in the growing set of interlocked regional conflicts that are stretching America’s military capabilities and handing more leverage to Tehran.”
“The U.S. conflict with Iran had already sparked a new war in Lebanon between Israel and Hezbollah and pulled in Iraqi militias that had largely sat out three years of war in the region.”
“President Trump on Sunday called on his Ukrainian counterpart to halt strikes on Russian refineries, saying the attacks are causing a shortage of diesel,” CBS News reports.
Said Trump: “Zelensky has to do one thing. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia. Let him go after targets but not diesel fuel, because he’s causing a shortage of diesel fuel.”
“The world’s most valuable energy corridors are pinching shut,” the New York Times reports.
“On Friday, Houthi militants backed by Iran expanded their control of the Red Sea, threatening a critical route for Persian Gulf crude. That left the region with few alternatives, since shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz — once the world’s primary oil transit point — remains significantly constrained and far below what it was before the war.”
“And oil exports from Saudi Arabia, long the most important producer in the Middle East, plunged last month to their lowest point in at least 13 years.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.