NPR: “For this campaign staffer, the method was simple. First, they’d receive a tip on an unreleased poll and compare it with the odds on a prediction market, like PredictIt or Polymarket. If the poll reported their candidate had a better chance of winning than the prediction markets, they’d use this edge to buy low-cost odds on their candidate — known as event contracts — before the poll was released.”

“On prediction markets, the price of an event contract often mirrors the market’s estimation of the probability of a given outcome — in this case the chance a candidate will win. So a contract selling for 20 cents means the market is pricing a 20% chance of success.”

“Once the poll went public, the prediction market contracts shot up in value. The staffer would then sell their contracts at a higher price and make money.”

“When Tesla shareholders approved an unprecedented $1 trillion pay package for Elon Musk last year, they bet on Musk’s ability to drive up the stock price, hit new performance milestones and establish Tesla as a robotics and artificial intelligence juggernaut,” the Washington Post reports.

“But those who believed the pay package would lead Musk to make a clean break with the political activity that had left the company in turmoil were mistaken.”

New York Times: “The companies running online prediction markets, where ordinary people bet on real-world events, can count on intense interest in what President Trump might have up his sleeve…”

“At the intersection of the prediction market industry and Trump world is Donald Trump Jr., the president’s eldest son. He is both an investor in and an unpaid adviser to Polymarket, and a paid adviser to Kalshi … That has created questions about whether regulators could have been swayed by simply knowing the interests of the president’s son.”

“An investment fund run by prominent Trump supporters tried to sell sponsorships for a conference it pitched to companies as the ‘Inaugural U.S. Treasury A.I. Summit,’ during which it said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent would unveil the Treasury Department’s artificial-intelligence strategy,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The fact that a private conference was marketed as a government-hosted event designed to unveil U.S. government policy startled ethics experts.”

Wall Street Journal: “She signed with a top Hollywood talent agency, Creative Artists Agency, in February to represent her in speaking and publishing engagements; CAA previously represented her. Harris’s team has asked for $250,000 a speech, according to people familiar with the discussions, and interest has so far has been limited.”

“With U.S. companies concerned about retribution from Trump, lucrative paid speeches have been challenging to get for top Democrats and even some Republicans.”

A pair of boxer shorts that belonged to President John F. Kennedy sold at auction for $9,100, the New York Post reports.

Disgraced former Rep. George Santos (D-NY) made $400,000 selling personalized videos on Cameo, federal prosecutors said in a court hearing Tuesday, ABC News reports.

Former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) is recording short videos on Cameo for $500 apiece.

“As Donald Trump prepares to begin his second four-year term, one cruise company is giving Americans the choice to opt out and escape,” The Guardian reports.

“The residential cruise line Villa Vie Residences announced earlier in November that it was launching a program that will allow travelers to join its ship, the Odyssey, at any port as it traverses around the world for the next several years. The trip is expected to travel to 425 ports across 140 countries, and the program will cost less than $40,000 a year.”

“The program is being offered in one-, two-, three-, and four-year packages. The one-year package is called Escape From Reality and the two-year package is called Mid-term Selection.”

The FBI raided the New York City apartment of Shayne Coplan, the founder and CEO of Polymarket, Axios reports.

“Polymarket is one of the most active prediction betting markets, gaining mainstream attention during the recent presidential election.”

Wired: “Polymarket has had a lot of success this year. The pro-Trump billionaire Peter Thiel and ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin announced they had raised around $70 million in funding for the company this past May. The site’s monthly traffic has grown to around 20 times more than what it was at the time of the investment.”

“Betting markets also secured a big win earlier this month when a US appeals court gave Kalshi, a predictions startup, the green light to offer markets on which party would take over Congress next year. While the case hasn’t been completely resolved, it likely won’t be decided before election day. This means election markets are here to stay, much to the joy of political influencers and elites like Musk online.”