“Republicans are leaning into a simple strategy to win over the crucial bloc of Latino voters: recruit them as candidates,” Punchbowl News reports.
“In the years since the 2016 cycle, many heavily Latino House districts swung from overwhelmingly backing Hillary Clinton to strongly favoring President Donald Trump.”
“Now, GOP leaders are making a concerted effort to field Latino candidates in these districts to help turn these pro-Trump voters into loyal Republicans.”
Aaron Blake: “The 2026 midterm elections should, by all rights, be good for Democrats.”
“However, there is a sizeable ‘but’ that comes along with that right now… It’s looking like Democrats could squander at least some of that opportunity, if they don’t do something about their brand, which is historically awful right now.”
“That doesn’t mean they’ll lose the midterms. But it could mean they won’t take full advantage and grow their numbers as much as they could.”
For members: Some Early Thoughts on the Midterm Elections
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “The map is designed to allow Republicans to win five new seats in Texas, which would have the effect of pushing their edge in the state delegation from 25-13 at full strength to 30-8.”
“Not all the newly-drawn seats are guaranteed Republican pickups, though.”
“We offer tentative possible ratings of the new map’s 38 districts below, although without knowing if the map will be enacted under this form (or at all), we are not actually making any rating changes today.”
Playbook: “Republicans are bullish on the logic that, under the new map, Trump would have carried three of the new GOP districts by 10 points and the other two by more than 15… Four of the GOP’s pickup opportunities reside in majority-Hispanic districts, and the GOP is making a major bet that the same red wave among Texas’ Latino voters that helped Trump secure the White House will carry through to 2026.”
“Kamala Harris will not run governor of California next year, she announced Wednesday, leaving the door open to another White House bid in 2028 as the former vice president considers her political future following her loss to President Donald Trump last fall,” the Washington Post reports.
“I am humbled and grateful by the massive statewide support that I have to run for governor, and if I wanted to run we all know I would win. It’s not even debatable.”
— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), quoted USA Today, passing on a run for governor.
“Rep. Jerry Nadler, the dean of the New York congressional delegation, is getting a primary challenger for next year — and it’s not from the Democratic Socialists of America,” CNN reports.
“Liam Elkind, a 26-year-old who started an organization during the Covid-19 pandemic that delivered food and medicine, is pitching his run as ‘respectfully asking’ Nadler to retire.”
“Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has privately discussed the idea of running for political office next year in Tennessee,“ NBC News reports.
“If Hegseth were to follow through on the discussions, it would amount to a major leadership shake-up at the department that oversees the American military and millions of federal employees. The Defense Department bars civilian employees from running for political office, meaning Hegseth would have to resign to do so.”
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) “will not run for Georgia governor in 2026, saying Tuesday she intends to stay in Congress and promote President Donald Trump’s agenda rather than compete for Georgia’s top job,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
Said Greene: “One day, I might just run purely out of the blessing of the wonderful people of Georgia, my family and friends, but it won’t be in 2026.”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves the Wisconsin governor’s race to Toss Up because Gov. Tony Evers (D) will not run again.
“Roy Cooper raised $3.4 million in the first 24 hours of his Senate campaign — a record-breaking sum for the former North Carolina governor in one of the most competitive upcoming Senate races,” Politico reports.
“The fundraising haul includes more than $2.6 million raised directly to Cooper’s campaign account, with 95 percent of those donations totaling $100 or less, according to his team.”
“Democrats have a rare bright spot in their party’s existential crisis: 2026, at least to them, looks pretty good,” Axios reports.
“The party is full of angst over how to retake the White House and win back the voters they lost to President Trump over the past decade. But they feel increasingly sanguine about taking back the House next year.”
The U.S. Senate campaign of Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) added a 51st state to the union on Monday when it released an ad that misspelled Georgia, Mediaite reports.
Charlie Cook: “Even a scandal like the Epstein files, which sucks up all the oxygen in Washington, is unlikely to affect an election almost 500 days away.”
A Fairleigh Dickinson poll finds the race to be the next governor of New Jersey is close, with Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill holding an eight-point lead over Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli among likely voters, 45% to 37%, and 16% still undecided.
“Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and former Sen. Sherrod Brown met in Ohio this weekend, as Brown weighs a possible comeback bid to flip a GOP Senate seat in the state,” Axios reports.
“Schumer has lobbied Brown for months to run. Fresh off a major recruiting victory in North Carolina, he wants to expand that luck to Ohio.”
“A chief architect of Project 2025, Paul Dans, is launching a Republican primary challenge to Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, joining a crowded field that will test the loyalties of President Donald Trump and his MAGA movement in next year’s midterm election,” the AP reports.
Said Dans: “What we’ve done with Project 2025 is really change the game in terms of closing the door on the progressive era. If you look at where the chokepoint is, it’s the United States Senate. That’s the headwaters of the swamp.”
Former Gov. Roy Cooper officially entered the race for North Carolina’s Senate seat today via a post on social media.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.