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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 192

November Surprises

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 192: November Surprises

Trump Slingshots Darline Graham to Victory

August 26, 2026 · 5:14 am ET · Leave a Comment

“President Trump had seemed to be in danger of taking a major defeat on Tuesday night,” the New York Times reports.

“His choice for Senate in South Carolina, Darline Graham, had admitted at a debate that she wasn’t ‘that informed on national security.’ Mr. Trump’s so-far-stingy super PAC was forced to spend more than $800,000 to help her. Many South Carolina Republicans expected her to lose, in what would have been the president’s first defeat in a Senate primary all year.”

“Instead, as Mr. Trump has done often since his rise to power a decade ago, he defied electoral expectations.”

Bloomberg: Trump pick Darline Graham wins South Carolina Senate runoff.

2026 Campaign, Senate

How Corporate PAC Money Gets to Dems Who Swore It Off

August 26, 2026 · 5:07 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Democratic candidates’ call to get money out of politics is a central theme in the 2026 midterms, with dozens of Democratic incumbents and candidates pledging to reject donations from corporate political action committees,” NOTUS reports.

“But there’s a workaround that is enabling the flow of money from business interests into the campaign accounts of many Democrats who otherwise reject cash from corporate PACs.”

2026 Campaign, Campaign Finance

Darline Graham Wins GOP Nod in South Carolina

August 25, 2026 · 8:49 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Sen. Darline Graham (R-SC) is projected to win the South Carolina Republican primary runoff to replace her brother, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), on the November ballot,” The Hill reports.

New York Times: Darline Graham, backed by Trump, wins primary for Senate in South Carolina.

2026 Campaign

Democrats Score Victory in Campaign Finance Case

August 25, 2026 · 7:46 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“In the obscure yet consequential world of the cost of television ads for political candidates and parties, Democrats scored a legal victory on Tuesday ahead of the midterm elections,” the New York Times reports.

“A three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit ruled that low-cost ad rates that candidates qualify for do not have to be made available to political parties.”

“The ruling is a win for Democrats, whose candidates tend to raise more money than its committees. The opposite is true for Republicans, whose party committees are more flush with cash than many of its individual candidates.”

2026 Campaign, Campaign Finance

Tonight’s Primary Results

August 25, 2026 · 7:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

There are primary elections today in Georgia Oklahoma and South Carolina.

Here are the poll closing times and links:

  • South Carolina – 7 p.m. ET
  • Georgia – 7 p.m. ET
  • Oklahoma – 8 p.m. ET

Leave your reactions in the comments as results come in.

2026 Campaign

Trump’s Trade War Gives Republicans Another Headache

August 25, 2026 · 4:10 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump’s latest trade policies are creating new political headaches for Republicans, threatening their efforts to address voters’ economic concerns less than three months from the midterm elections,” NOTUS reports.

“In the past week, Trump escalated a costly trade war with Canada and allowed cheap beef imports to flood the U.S. market, angering many in his party who believe his policies are harming key industries and making things more expensive for consumers and businesses alike.”

“The GOP opposition was public and swift, and included Republican candidates and party leaders.”

2026 Campaign, Economy, Foreign Affairs

Federal Judge Halts Ohio Proof-of-Citizenship Requirement

August 25, 2026 · 4:07 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“A federal judge temporarily blocked Ohio from requiring proof of citizenship when registering to vote at motor vehicle offices, a setback for conservative efforts to tighten voter registration rules ahead of the November midterms,” the Washington Post reports.

“Ohio’s law requiring proof of citizenship at Bureau of Motor Vehicles’ offices conflicts with the federal National Voter Registration Act, the court said. A preliminary injunction was granted on Tuesday.”

2026 Campaign, Election Administration

Trump Is Having Trouble Changing How Americans Vote

August 25, 2026 · 4:02 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“For much of his second term, President Donald Trump has been trying to dramatically change how people vote. He’s pushed to limit (or ban) mail voting, create strict voter ID laws, require verification of citizenship, and even once said that Republicans should ‘take over the voting’ and nationalize it,” the Washington Post reports.

“His attempts to make sweeping changes to election law have been mostly unsuccessful so far, but they have created a lot of uncertainty about how elections will be run — including this fall. In some states, ballots for November’s election will get mailed next week.”

“Election experts worry some confused voters will opt out of participating altogether.”

2026 Campaign, Election Administration

Trump-Backed Candidate Removes All Mentions of Trump

August 25, 2026 · 1:11 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Ralph Alvarado is running with Donald Trump’s endorsement in a House district in Kentucky that the president carried by double digits in 2024,” NBC News reports.

“But since winning the Republican primary in May, he has removed a series of pro-Trump messages and a photo of them standing together from his campaign website.”

2026 Campaign, House of Representatives

Can Texas Really Turn Blue?

August 25, 2026 · 10:28 am ET · Leave a Comment

Nate Silver: “So much of my skeptical feeling, obviously, derives from Democrats’ long losing streak in Texas. But I’m not sure that tells you so much…”

“But in politics even more so than in sports — at least in sports, there are plausibly psychological/clutch factors that models might not account for — this sort of reasoning can be circular. People were highly skeptical that Democrats could win in Georgia until both Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock (and Joe Biden) did in 2020.”

“But now Georgia’s status as a swing state is cemented, to the point where nobody has given us a hard time for FLIPR’s projection that Ossoff is likely to cruise to re-election in November.”

2026 Campaign, Political Strategy

Hochul Expects ‘Helpful’ Mamdani in Her Reelection Bid

August 25, 2026 · 7:33 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Gov. Kathy Hochul expects Big Apple Mayor Zohran Mamdani will aid her reelection bid this year — support that stands to harness the base of young, left-leaning backers who propelled him to City Hall,” Politico reports.

Said Hochul: “I think he’ll be helpful.”

2026 Campaign, State House

AIPAC Hosts Multiple Fundraisers for Mike Rogers

August 25, 2026 · 7:29 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Michigan Republican U.S. Senate nominee Mike Rogers attended three fundraisers hosted by the American Israel Public Affairs Committee in Los Angeles on Sunday and another on Monday amid reports that he holds reservations about the pro-Israel group advertising on his behalf to help him defeat Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in November,” the Detroit News reports.

“The pro-Israel group is motivated to defeat El-Sayed, a fierce critic of Israel’s government, and is reportedly eager to boost Rogers by adding to the $32 million that it spent trying to defeat El-Sayed in the primary.”

2026 Campaign, Senate

Abdul El-Sayed Distances Himself From Popular Streamer

August 25, 2026 · 7:25 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate in Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, distanced himself Monday from progressive commentator Hasan Piker, who suggested that some pro-Israel rhetoric may lead to backlash against American Jews,” the Associated Press reports.

CNN: Abdul El-Sayed distances himself from left-wing influencer after comments about American Jews.

2026 Campaign

Supreme Court’s Order Doesn’t Change Elections Yet

August 25, 2026 · 7:24 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The Supreme Court’s decision giving preliminary approval for President Donald Trump’s order restricting mail voting may not lead to a single election procedure changing during the November midterms, but it has already thrown into uncertainty the method that nearly one-third of the country uses to vote,” the Associated Press reports.

“Rather than saying that Trump’s order is legal, the high court said Monday it was too early for Democratic-run states to challenge it in June, when they convinced a federal judge in Boston to freeze the order for November’s election.”

For members: The Fight Over Trump’s Mail-Voting Order Isn’t Over

2026 Campaign, Election Administration

Josh Shapiro Cruising to Re-Election in Pennsylvania

August 25, 2026 · 7:14 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, a moderate Democrat, is in the driver’s seat for re-election in a battleground state,” according to a New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena University poll.

“Mr. Shapiro leads Stacy Garrity, the Republican state treasurer, by 16 percentage points among likely voters, according to the poll. He leads in nearly every demographic group and is winning 11 percent of President Trump’s 2024 supporters.”

2026 Campaign, State House

Trump PAC Opens Its Wallet to Boost Darline Graham

August 24, 2026 · 7:30 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“A super PAC aligned with President Trump is opening up its wallet to boost Sen. Darline Graham ahead of Tuesday’s runoff election in South Carolina, as the president looks to prevent an embarrassing loss by a candidate he encouraged to enter the race,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“MAGA Inc. is spending more than $800,000 on get-out-the-vote calls and text messages in support of Graham, according to a federal filing, marking the first time that the group has spent money on a race in months.”

2026 Campaign, Senate

Mike Johnson Campaigns Against the ‘Communists’

August 24, 2026 · 6:00 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Speaker Mike Johnson crisscrossed New York and New Jersey last week promoting tax cuts from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act while mostly warning voters: Vote Republican to save us from the communists,” NOTUS reports.

“House Republican leaders are relying on keeping and flipping a handful of swing seats in and around New York state as their path to holding the majority. But historic trends, President Donald Trump’s declining poll numbers and the rising cost of goods and gas prices aren’t helping.”

“Now, a crop of democratic socialists who dominated in primaries in New York City districts provide a messaging alternative for Republicans looking to portray every Democrat in the state and nearby suburbs as far-left extremists ahead of the midterms.”

2026 Campaign, House of Representatives

Quote of the Day

August 24, 2026 · 5:24 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“I don’t respond to a dictator like President Trump, a bully like President Trump… I’m not gonna take any advice off a guy that’s the king of bankruptcies… Your own people, President Trump, don’t even like you. And they’re gonna speak loud and clear in the midterms. If I was allowed to, I’d be down there door-knocking.”

— Ontario premier Doug Ford, speaking to reporters.

2026 Campaign, Foreign Affairs

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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