Nate Silver: “So much of my skeptical feeling, obviously, derives from Democrats’ long losing streak in Texas. But I’m not sure that tells you so much…”
“But in politics even more so than in sports — at least in sports, there are plausibly psychological/clutch factors that models might not account for — this sort of reasoning can be circular. People were highly skeptical that Democrats could win in Georgia until both Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock (and Joe Biden) did in 2020.”
“But now Georgia’s status as a swing state is cemented, to the point where nobody has given us a hard time for FLIPR’s projection that Ossoff is likely to cruise to re-election in November.”
