What a New Texas Map Might Mean

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “The map is designed to allow Republicans to win five new seats in Texas, which would have the effect of pushing their edge in the state delegation from 25-13 at full strength to 30-8.”

“Not all the newly-drawn seats are guaranteed Republican pickups, though.”

“We offer tentative possible ratings of the new map’s 38 districts below, although without knowing if the map will be enacted under this form (or at all), we are not actually making any rating changes today.”

Playbook: “Republicans are bullish on the logic that, under the new map, Trump would have carried three of the new GOP districts by 10 points and the other two by more than 15… Four of the GOP’s pickup opportunities reside in majority-Hispanic districts, and the GOP is making a major bet that the same red wave among Texas’ Latino voters that helped Trump secure the White House will carry through to 2026.”