Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has two Senate ratings changes this week: The most vulnerable senator, Sen. Doug Jones (D-AL), moves from Toss-up to Leans Republican, while Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up.
Thom Tillis Trails In North Carolina
A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Cal Cunningham (D) edging Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) in a closely watched Senate race, 45% to 43%, with 12% still unsure.
Tillis Faces Tough Primary Challenge
A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) barely leading Republican primary challenger Garland Tucker (R), 38% to 31%, with another 31% undecided.
Republicans Dodge Nasty Primary In North Carolina
“Rep. Mark Walker has decided not to launch a primary challenge against Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina, in a relief to senior Republicans who feared a scorched-earth battle in a key state,” Politico reports.
Tillis Trails Possible Senate Challenger
A new Emerson College poll in North Carolina finds Sen. Tom Tillis (R) trails possible challenger state Sen. Erica Smith (D) by seven points, 39% to 46%, with 15% still undecided.
GOP Leaders Back Tillis By Bloodying His Challenger
Washington Examiner: “Republican leaders in the Senate are aggressively defending Sen. Thom Tillis, with plans to carpet bomb primary challenger Garland Tucker across the North Carolina airwaves if he jeopardizes the incumbent’s 2020 reelection.”
Tillis Gets a Primary Challenge
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) has drawn a Republican challenger in 2020, the Raleigh News & Observer reports.
“Garland Tucker III, the retired chairman and CEO of Triangle Capital Corporation and an author, filed paperwork with the Federal Election Committee to run in the Republican primary on Monday. Tucker wrote Conservative Heroes: Fourteen Leaders Who Changed America — Jefferson to Reagan and has served on the board of the John Locke Foundation and the Raleigh-based Civitas Institute.”
Tillis May Face Primary Challenge
Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC) is under fire from conservative activists for supporting a Democratic effort to block President Trump’s emergency declaration to fund his border wall, The Hill reports.
“The activists have also raised Tillis’s legislation to shield special counsel Robert Mueller from any interference by Trump. Some county GOP party leaders are openly calling for Tillis to face a primary challenge.”
Hagan Will Not Seek Return to Senate
Former Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) will not be mounting a challenge to her former GOP colleague, Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), Roll Call reports.
“Hagan, who was defeated by Thom Tillis in 2014, has been making calls to inform donors she will not be running for the seat that comes up in 2016.”
Democrats Want Hagan to Run Again
Democratic powerbrokers, including Sen. Chuck Schumer, are coaxing former Sen. Kay Hagan (D-NC) to run for Senate again in 2016, National Journal reports. “And not just because they like her. Hagan might be the greatest chance the party has to reclaim that Senate seat, riding a wave that some strategists think will be in Democrats’ favor thanks to Hillary Clinton sitting atop the national ticket and luring voters to the polls.”
“The best any of those recruiters can say, though, is that Hagan is seriously considering it. According to people close to her, the senator who suffered through more than $100 million in mostly negative TV spending against her just months ago, hasn’t made a decision. She hasn’t even decided when that decision might come.”
Burr Seems Safe Despite Low Approval
A new Public Policy Polling survey in North Carolina finds Sen. Richard Burr’s re-election outlook remains stable: He has an approval rating in the low 30s danger zone, but leads of 6-12 points against his most mentioned potential Democratic opponents who are either unknown or unpopular.
Burr leads Treasurer Janet Cowell (D) 44% to 38%, former Senator Kay Hagan (D) 50% to 43%, Anthony Foxx (D) 45% to 36%, and Winston-Salem Mayor Allen Joines (D) 45% to 33%.
Burr Kicks Off Re-Election Bid with Big Night
Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) “kicked off fundraising for his 2016 re-election campaign with an event in Washington Wednesday night that brought in more than $1 million,” the Raleigh News & Observer reports.
“There was speculation in Washington that Burr might not be running because he only had $720,000 cash on hand in the latest campaign finance filing. But Burr recently announced a team of veteran political operatives as his 2016 campaign staff.”
