Nate Silver gives Democrats a 93% chance to win the House and a 71% chance to win the Senate.

FiftyPlusOne gives Democrats a 99% chance to win the House and a 72% chance to win the Senate.

DDHQ gives Democrats a 75% chance to win the House and a 54% chance to win the Senate.

“President Donald Trump hits the campaign later this week on defense, with the tall task of convincing voters that their economic plight is better than they feel and pleading with them to extend the current congressional majority through the next two years as his White House tenure sunsets,” Bloomberg reports.

“His salesmanship received the latest challenge today. Consumer confidence in September fell to the lowest level since 2014 as views about the economy and the labor market deteriorated.”

New York Magazine: “The timeline for early voting varies by state and, in some places, by locality. Six states (Idaho, Minnesota, Mississippi, South Dakota, Vermont, and Virginia) have already entered the window where in-person early voting is authorized. The length of these windows varies, as the Center for Election Research and Innovation explains: Early in-person voting locations are open in 2 states until October 27; until the day before Election Day in 14 states; and up to and including Election Day in as many as 8 states.”

Gloria Steinem, in her last essay for the New Yorker:

“For me, saying that I am a feminist has always meant that I believe in the social, economic, and political equality of all males and females of all races and groups. I know this sounds too simple to need a word, but equality is still the exception, not the rule.”

“Maybe we should call it egalitarianism, or even humanism. The problem with humanism is that it is often interpreted as being anti-religion, so I don’t think it’s inclusive enough. Regardless of what we call it, it just means treating each of us as uniquely human. The experiences of race and gender and class are very real and important, but they are also constructed and changeable. Our humanity is consistent and sacred.”

“Still, for some, it remains a mystery why women need a movement to distinguish our efforts toward equality. For me, it seems quite obvious.”

Jonathan Bernstein: “The whole idea behind it is to destroy the ability of political parties to nominate candidates as they see fit, which is pretty much the basis for party health. Anti-party sentiment in the US has a long history, and the impulse behind it is entirely wrong. Parties are crucial to healthy democracy. For people who just vote and do nothing else, parties simplify the ballot – something always helpful, but especially so given the US long ballot with frequent elections and many offices.”

“For those who want to get more involved, they provide an easy entrance into meaningful political activity, a process which allows new policy topics and ideas to break into the political system. And for everyone, parties anchor representational relationships between politicians and voters by forcing elected officials to interact with rank-and-file party actors.”

“Top two has not, in fact, destroyed the parties when it has been implemented, but it does disrupt them. Parties try to control nominations anyway, and find ways to do so (just as they often learned to do in ‘regular’ primary elections). But it means, essentially, beating a system designed against them, so it has real costs to the parties and therefore to democracy.”

A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that 63% of Americans said they opposed renaming Lake Ontario to Lake America, compared to just 14% in favor.

Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI) is using AI-generated videos of his challenger, Rebecca Cooke (D), including fake video of her ordering “peasants” to support her candidacy, Wisconsin Public Radio reports.

“President Trump has stuck his neck out for Senator Darline Graham,” the New York Times reports.

“In the weeks leading up to South Carolina’s primary election runoff for Senate on Tuesday, Mr. Trump traveled to Myrtle Beach to rally supporters and personally called high-level state officials to compel them to endorse Ms. Graham. A super PAC run by his advisers, MAGA Inc. notoriously wary to spend on races this cycle, invested more than $800,000 on phone calls on her behalf, according to campaign finance filings released on Monday, nearly a third of the total the committee has spent this year.”

“On the line: The president’s credibility in a state that twice in the last six months has rejected his preferences.”

“Every time J.D. Vance opens his mouth, the first two things I can think are, man, that guy is boring. And second, Peter Thiel had to spend a ton of money to get that man elected, barely in the state of Ohio.”

— Michigan U.S. Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D), on MS NOW.

Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) was interviewed on Meet the Press by Kristen Welker:

WELKER: Susan Collins says Trump’s Canada tariffs will increase costs on American families. Is she right?

SCOTT: Let’s look back at Joe Biden…

WELKER: Wait. President Trump has been in office for two years. Inflation was at 3% when Biden left office. It’s at 3.4% right now.

SCOTT: Joe Biden…

WELKER: The Biden administration is over!

“Trade negotiations between the United States and Canada fell apart on Friday night, shortly before a midnight deadline for 50% tariffs to take effect on $20 billion worth of Canadian products,” NPR reports.

“Karoline Leavitt will work for President Donald Trump’s super PAC MAGA Inc. after she leaves her post at the White House,” NBC News reports.

“ActBlue co-founder Matt DeBergalis pleaded the Fifth Amendment during his closed-door deposition before three key House committees,” Fox News reports.

Two election modelers — Nate Silver and G. Elliott Morris — now give Democrats a better than 50% chance of winning the Senate, Bloomberg reports.

The November elections technically start on September 4, when North Carolina starts sending out absentee-vote-by-mail ballots, Jamie Dupree reports.

Jonathan Bernstein: “Other states follow soon after; by early October lots and lots of people will be voting; almost a third of the states begin early voting by the end of the first week of October.”

“The number of U.S. service members wounded since the start of the Iran war has passed 750, according to the Defense Department’s war casualty database,” CNN reports.

President Trump bragged, “I’m very good at flagpoles!” during an “impromptu tour of his various White House construction projects,” Mediaite reports.

“North Korea denied any direct communication between Kim Jong Un and President Donald Trump even as the U.S. president said he’s seeking to meet with the strongman this year,” Bloomberg reports.