NOTUS: “Heading into the midterms, Republicans thought Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp was their best chance to beat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.”
“But Kemp declined to run, and is now, much to the befuddlement of national Republicans, supporting a candidate who is in a distant third and could likely force the GOP primary into an expensive runoff.”
A new Emerson College poll of the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Georgia finds Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) with an edge over potential Republican opponents.
Ossoff leads Rep. Buddy Carter 47% to 44%, with 9% undecided. Ossoff’s lead extends to five points against Rep. Mike Collins, 48% to 43% with 9% undecided. Ossoff leads Derek Dooley by eight points, 49% to 41%, with 10% undecided.
Said pollster Spencer Kimball: “Senator Jon Ossoff enters the 2026 election cycle just under 50% support, anchored by a strong base among independent voters, leading potential Republican opponents by an average of 16 points, along with voters under 50, leading by an average of 12 points, and women, leading by an average of 8 points.”
“Among today’s false prophets are the election deniers who indulge this president’s obsession with overturning the 2020 election. Hear me when I say this — they tell a lie so absurd, and therefore so debasing to tell, that the act of telling it proves the teller’s total and humiliating submission.”
— Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA), in a campaign speech.
“Lots of candidates pitch themselves as political outsiders. Derek Dooley goes a step further. Not only is the former football coach running for the first time, he says he did not vote for nearly two decades,” the AP reports.
“He did not vote when Republican Donald Trump was first elected president in 2016. Nor did he vote in 2020, when Trump lost to Democrat Joe Biden.”
“But Dooley does not worry about that as he seeks the Republican nomination to face off against Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia. He insists that Washington needs someone with a fresh outlook, someone who is not focused on ‘their own political career or their political ambitions.’”
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball moves the U.S. Senate race in Georgia from Toss Up to Leans Democrat.
However, despite facing what is likely to be a difficult national political environment this fall, Republicans remain favored to hold their Senate majority.
Overlooked in today’s Atlanta Journal Constitution poll: 20% of Republican voters in Georgia either “strongly” or “somewhat” approve of Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA).
He’s also got $21 million in the bank.
A new Atlanta Journal Constitution poll in Georgia finds Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) holds an early advantage in the GOP race for Senate with a 10-point lead over his nearest rival.
But with nearly 40% of the likely Republican voters undecided, the contest is far from settled.
New York Times: “As the only Democrat running for the Senate in a state that President Trump won in 2024, Mr. Ossoff risks alienating some voters by sticking with his party in refusing to vote to reopen the government until Mr. Trump and congressional Republicans come to the table to negotiate an extension of Obamacare subsidies that are slated to expire at the end of the year.”
“But the shutdown fight is also a chance for Mr. Ossoff to rally core Democratic supporters behind him as he braces for a difficult campaign, at a time when many in his party are spoiling for a fight against Mr. Trump.”
Politico: “On paper, Jon Ossoff has plenty of reasons to break party ranks as the government shutdown drags into a third week: The 38-year-old Georgian is the most vulnerable Senate Democrat up for re-election next year and his home state has more than 81,000 federal workers at risk for furloughs and firings.”
“In reality, Ossoff is sticking closely to his party’s strategy of trying to reframe the shutdown fight as a battle over health care — and has emerged as an object lesson in the limits of Republican efforts to focus pressure on the Democrats’ soft spots.”
“Part of that calculus is that it is much riskier to alienate your own party’s base than to break ranks in hopes of appealing to swing voters.”
“Sen. Jon Ossoff raised another $12 million over the last three months, bringing his campaign account to $21 million as he gears up for one of the nation’s most competitive midterm races,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
Rep. Buddy Carter’s (R-GA) Senate campaign went up with a seven-figure ad blitz seeking to tie him closely to President Trump — and to the Laken Riley Act, even though primary rival Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) was the main sponsor of the bill, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
College football coach Derek Dooley (R) officially launched his Senate campaign in Georgia.
Playbook: “The college football coaching scion will seek to replicate the path of Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL), and Dooley’s launch video presents him as a Trump-aligned political outsider seeking to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff.”
Axios: “The Georgia race will be Republicans’ best chance at picking up a seat this cycle, but leadership has yet to rally behind one winning GOP candidate.”
The U.S. Senate campaign of Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) added a 51st state to the union on Monday when it released an ad that misspelled Georgia, Mediaite reports.
Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA) said that “he will join the field challenging Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff in the state the GOP has named as their top target to add a Senate seat in 2026,” Bloomberg reports.
The Atlanta Journal Constitution says Collins “launched his campaign after laying the groundwork for months — locking down endorsements from prominent conservatives, meeting with Trump advisers at the White House and teasing his campaign in an online video urging supporters to ‘stay tuned.'”
“President Donald Trump’s political team is irked that Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp has continued to recruit his preferred GOP Senate candidate even though the White House is not yet on the same page,” Punchbowl News reports.
“Once enemies, Trump and Kemp had hoped to work together to find the best candidate to oust Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) in 2026.”
“Now that partnership is at risk of fraying with Kemp’s eagerness to recruit former football coach Derek Dooley to be the GOP standard bearer in this hugely important race.”
“Gov. Brian Kemp is making a late push to help lay the groundwork for former football coach Derek Dooley’s U.S. Senate bid — directly telling Insurance Commissioner John King and U.S. Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter he won’t support their campaigns,” the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports.
“The behind-the-scenes moves came Thursday as Dooley, a longtime Kemp ally, prepares to enter the Republican primary to challenge Democratic U.S. Sen. Jon Ossoff.”
Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) is going hard at President Trump as he gears up for a difficult reelection fight, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
At a rally, Ossoff called Trump a “depraved man” and said America had to fight against “deeply entrenched corruption and greed.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.