A new Spectrum News/Siena College poll in Ohio finds Tim Ryan (D) leading J.D. Vance (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 43%.
The poll shows Ryan leading Vance in two crucial voting blocks that will help decide this race: Support from independents (47% to 35%) and women voters (54% to 34%).
For comparison, the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows a dead heat.
“The debate between Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan and Republican J.D. Vance over whether and when to debate each other may finally be over,” the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
“The two U.S. Senate candidates’ respective campaigns both said Monday they had agreed to two debates next month, one on Oct. 10 in Cleveland and another on Oct. 17 in Youngstown.”
A new Marist poll in Ohio finds J.D. Vance (R) barely ahead of Tim Ryan (D) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 45% with 9% still undecided.
For comparison, the FiveThirtyEight polling average shows the race tied.
Tim Ryan (D) slammed J.D. Vance (R) for holding a campaign rally during an Ohio State vs. Toledo game with Donald Trump, but the Daily Mail reports Ryan wasn’t watching the game, either.
A new USA Today/Suffolk University poll in Ohio finds Tim Ryan (D) edging J.D. Vance (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 46%.
Roughly 6% of voters were undecided.
“A political action committee with close ties to U.S. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is launching a massive new ad campaign in Ohio, a clear sign that national Republicans are shifting more toward playing defense in the Buckeye State,” the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
“The Senate Leadership Fund is reserving $28 million worth of TV and radio ads that will air statewide, the group announced Thursday. That’s a huge escalation of the roughly $5 million national Republicans have spent in Ohio so far in the race between Republican J.D. Vance and Democratic U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan. The ads will start after Labor Day, the unofficial start of the most intense part of a general-election campaign season.”
A new Emerson poll shows Vance leading Ryan by just three points, 45% to 42%.
“Tim Ryan may be running ahead of J.D. Vance in Ohio. But the cavalry is coming to Vance’s rescue,” Politico reports.
“Whether Ryan can survive the coming ad onslaught and keep Ohio’s Senate race surprisingly competitive is an open question. The Democratic congressman is making an appeal to Republicans and independents in hopes he can win in a state that has shifted right in recent years, falling off the center of the battleground map it occupied for so many decades.”
“Independent polling in the race has been scarce so far. But Ryan has staked out a narrow 3-point edge in an internal poll for his campaign obtained exclusively by Politico, taking 48 percent support to Vance’s 45 percent, with 7 percent undecided.”
Ohio U.S. Senate candidate J.D. Vance (R) “said people need to be more willing to stay in unhappy marriages for the sake of their kids—and seemed to suggest that in some cases, ‘even violent’ marriages should continue,” Vice News reports.
Said Vance: “This is one of the great tricks that I think the sexual revolution pulled on the American populace, which is the idea that like, ‘well, OK, these marriages were fundamentally, you know, they were maybe even violent, but certainly they were unhappy. And so getting rid of them and making it easier for people to shift spouses like they change their underwear, that’s going to make people happier in the long term.'”
He added: “And maybe it worked out for the moms and dads, though I’m skeptical. But it really didn’t work out for the kids of those marriages.”
“Complaints about J.D. Vance and his Senate campaign are rising among Ohio Republicans after the conservative populist posted an anemic second-quarter fundraising report,” the Washington Examiner reports.
“As Ohio Senate candidate J.D. Vance (R) fell far short of his Democratic opponent Tim Ryan (D) in recent campaign donations, one of the Republican’s chief fundraising vehicles says it prioritizes paying off the campaign’s debt from the May 3 primary he won,” Roll Call reports.
“The campaign’s biggest creditor: Vance himself. He loaned his campaign $700,000 for the primary.”
“Tim Ryan (D) is using his big fundraising advantage over J.D. Vance (R) in Ohio’s Senate race to define himself as conservative-friendly through TV ads targeting GOP audiences — while Vance’s campaign remains silent,” Axios reports.
“Ryan’s latest ad, airing exclusively on Fox News last week, shows him winning warm reviews from the conservative network’s hosts — including Tucker Carlson.”
Daily Beast: “That’s the key takeaway from Federal Election Commission filings this week, which show that between mid-April and the end of June, the Vance team raised a million dollars, spent more than that, and is a quarter of a million dollars in the hole with just four months until election day.”
“It’s not the full picture for Vance, whose fundraising operation includes a leadership PAC and joint fundraising committees. But even that isn’t much better.”
“Rep. Tim Ryan — a Democrat angling to flip what many believed would be a safe Republican Senate seat in increasingly red Ohio — is unsubtly ratcheting up his efforts to woo GOP voters,” NBC News reports.
“Ryan’s latest TV ad will begin airing this week exclusively on Fox News, although its reach could eventually expand beyond the cable network known for its conservative audience and prime-time programming.”
“Rep. Tim Ryan, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio, will not appear with President Biden in Cleveland on Wednesday as the president works to tout a program benefiting union workers,” The Hill reports.
“Democratic gubernatorial nominee Nan Whaley will also be absent from the visit.”
Ohio U.S. candidate J.D. Vance (R) once wrote for a website run by David Frum, who now offers a personal reflection on the Vance he knew in The Atlantic.
“Vance wrote for FrumForum under a pseudonym. So, even as my former contributor’s career has lurched in disturbing directions, I’ve felt honor-bound to maintain confidentiality about the pieces.”
President Biden will tout expanded U.S. manufacturing in Ohio on Friday, but U.S. Senate nominee Tim Ryan (D) won’t be joining him, Bloomberg reports.
“His absence suggests Democrats running in the most competitive congressional races regard Biden and his low public approval ratings as a drag on their chances.”
Playbook found a Dropbox folder with dozens of campaign strategy documents from a super PAC supporting Ohio U.S. Senate candidate J.D. Vance, including PDFs of two versions of a “JD Vance vulnerability analysis.”
It is essentially a “how to” guide for attacking Vance.
“Former president Donald Trump’s sway over Republicans in this year’s midterms will be tested on Tuesday in a crowded primary for the U.S. Senate in Ohio — one of two states where voters are heading to the polls,” the Washington Post reports.
“Republican primary voters will select their nominee to fill an open Senate seat from a group that includes a candidate backed by Trump, three others who have touted ties to him and one who has rejected the former president’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen.”
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Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.