This issue takes a deep dive into one of the most interesting House races in the country.
GDP Growth Revised Downward Again
The final GDP report for the last quarter of 2025 was downgraded to 0.5% from the previous 0.7% estimate which had already been revised downward from 1.4%.
The Iran War Is Tearing MAGA Influencers Apart
Wired: “Candace Owens spent years building a pro-MAGA audience by supporting President Donald Trump. Now, she’s calling for his removal from office.”
“Over the past few months, right-wing media figures like Owens have broken with Trump on a number of issues, including the Epstein files and the administration’s intervention in Venezuela. But the fracturing among the MAGA media coalition appears to have reached the point of no return after the president’s threats to annihilate ‘a whole civilization’ in Iran this week.”
Politicians Spent 5 Times the Amount on Security in 2024
“The rise of violent rhetoric and threats against politicians has led federal election campaigns and committees to spend more than five times the amount on security measures in the 2023-2024 election cycle than during the 2015-2016 election cycle,” The Independent reports.
“Roughly $41 million was spent on personal, event-related or cyber security for federal candidates in the latest general election.”
Iran War Will Drag Global Growth Lower
New York Times: “The war in Iran has dealt a new blow to the world economy, which the head of the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday will mean slower growth this year because of the destruction of energy infrastructure and supply chain disruptions.”
Justice Department Opens Probe Into NFL
Bloomberg: “The US Justice Department has opened an investigation into whether the National Football League is engaging in anticompetitive tactics that drive up the cost for consumers of watching games.”
The Art of Pretending You Have a Deal
Dan Drezner: “Trump’s last-minute cease-fire acceptance is an example of the Madman Theory only insofar as the madman gambit has a lousy track record of securing greater concessions — and this cease-fire also failed to gain anything for the United States. Meanwhile, the strategic losses caused by this war will continue to mount.”
“Of course, calling this a ‘deal’ or an ‘arrangement’ is an overly generous description — What actually happened sounds more like a series of coordinated social media posts…”
“I’m serious: what tactical gain did the Trump administration secure by agreeing to the two-week cease-fire beyond the cease-fire itself? Sure, President Trump saved himself from committing war crimes, but that’s not exactly a tactical win.”
Viktor Orbán and His American Apologists
Matt Welch: “Why has this administration shredded all precedent by going whole-hog campaign mode for the fading autocrat of a country whose GDP ranks somewhere between Greece and Uzbekistan?”
Greenland Hits Back at Trump
“Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen said on Thursday that he represents a proud nation seeking to maintain global order, pushing back against the latest comments about the Arctic island by President Donald Trump,” the South China Morning Post reports.
Trump on Wednesday vented his frustration with NATO, noting that he still remembered the alliance’s position on Greenland, a “BIG, POORLY RUN, PIECE OF ICE.”
Said Nielsen: “We are not some piece of ice. We are a proud population of 57,000 people, working every single day as good global citizens in full respect for all our allies.”
1979 Is the Year That Explains Donald Trump
The Atlantic: “It sure feels like 1979 again. Iran is fighting the West. The price of gas has been rising for weeks. Moscow is aiming to take advantage of a distracted White House. The party in control of Washington is anxiously looking at the polls. Flared pants and jumpsuits are back! So are cigarettes. Steven Spielberg is riding high after doing a movie about humans encountering aliens. (Not to be outdone, actual space missions are back too.) U2 put out new music. Even the Pittsburgh Pirates are good.”
“And if we do seem to have returned to that moment in time, then, well, Donald Trump would seem to be ready for whatever comes next, because the guy has lived his whole life like it’s the 1980s.”
Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed
“Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked Thursday, limited to a handful of Iran-linked ships, another sign that a fragile ceasefire between the US and Iran has yet to improve flows through the world’s key energy chokepoint,” Bloomberg reports.
“Just seven vessels, all of which have either called at Iranian ports or were carrying Iranian cargo, were observed making the voyage out of the Persian Gulf on Wednesday and into Thursday morning. Normal transits in both directions are more like 135 a day.”
CNBC: “The Strait of Hormuz has not opened to ship traffic after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.”
Automatic Registration for Military Draft Coming
USA Today: “Eligible men will be automatically registered into the U.S. military draft pool by December in an effort to streamline the existing self-registration process, according to the agency that oversees the system.”
“The new automatic registration process was approved by Congress under the National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2026, which President Donald Trump signed into law in December 2025.”
Only Losers Play the Madman
David Frum: “The most important thing to understand about the “madman theory” of foreign policy is that it was designed by losers for losers.”
“The world first heard of the madman theory from a 1978 memoir by President Richard Nixon’s former chief of staff H. R. Haldeman. According to Haldeman, Nixon said: ‘I want the North Vietnamese to believe I’ve reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war.’ Faced with an otherwise hopeless war in Vietnam, Nixon would pretend to be crazy to intimidate the North Vietnamese into allowing him some face-saving escape.”
“Nobody executes a madman strategy when he feels that he’s winning. Strong and successful powers emphasize consistency and predictability. So do powers that hope to be seen as strong and successful.”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“I love working for President Trump. It’s the greatest honor of a lifetime. And if President Trump chooses to nominate somebody else and asks me to go do something else, I’ll say, ‘Thank you very much, I love you, sir.'”
— Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche, speaking to reporters.
Two Senate Races to Watch
Jonathan Martin: “I have in mind two baby boomers, the most underrated and under-covered candidates in this midterm: Ohio’s Sherrod Brown and North Carolina’s Roy Cooper. Each comes from a state that has been forbidding for Democrats in federal races.”
“And it’s not an exaggeration to say that each may be the only person who could flip the seat for which they’re running.”
Why the Iran Ceasefire Changes Everything
Robert Pape: “The two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran is being described as a pause in hostilities. That description is misleading. What has occurred is not simply a halt in bombing. It is the clearest indication yet of a shift in power.”
“By the core standard of international politics—who can shape the behavior of others—the outcome is unmistakable. Iran has demonstrated the ability to impose costs on the global system and force adjustment across multiple actors. The United States, despite overwhelming military superiority, has accepted a halt under conditions it cannot fully dictate.”
“This is not equilibrium. It is a reversal.”
Supreme Court Ushers in Historic Defeats for Civil Rights
Washington Post: “The sharply conservative Supreme Court that President Donald Trump’s three appointees remade is the first since at least the 1950s to reject civil rights claims in a majority of cases involving women and minorities, according to a detailed analysis conducted for The Washington Post.”
“The shift brings to an end a streak of successive courts expanding such protections that began with the dawn of the civil rights era.”
The Astronauts Are Studs
Sally Jenkins: “Until this past week, a certain ho-humness had set in about human space flight. The International Space Station has been manned for more than 25 years; routine trips carry relatively anonymous men and women to a giant fan doing its repetitive circles in low-Earth orbit. NASA’s Artemis II scanning expedition to the lunar far side, using repurposed space-shuttle engines, at first seemed hardly capable of breaking an audience’s collective yawn.”
“Then it took off: four people arrowing atop what amounts to a bomb bound for the remotest point that man has visited in the cold, splintering sky. As they soared and circuited and sent back stirring images from their 330-cubic-foot canister, awe made its reappearance among the multitudes of casual sky watchers. So did respect for astronauts’ courage and their ancient-explorer’s hearts.”
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