Only Losers Play the Madman

David Frum: “The most important thing to understand about the “madman theory” of foreign policy is that it was designed by losers for losers.”

“The world first heard of the madman theory from a 1978 memoir by President Richard Nixon’s former chief of staff H. R. Haldeman. According to Haldeman, Nixon said: ‘I want the North Vietnamese to believe I’ve reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war.’ Faced with an otherwise hopeless war in Vietnam, Nixon would pretend to be crazy to intimidate the North Vietnamese into allowing him some face-saving escape.”

“Nobody executes a madman strategy when he feels that he’s winning. Strong and successful powers emphasize consistency and predictability. So do powers that hope to be seen as strong and successful.”