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What the Transportation Secretary Has Been Up To

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Intelligencer: “What’s stopping you from celebrating America’s 250th birthday by loading your whole family in the car and road-tripping across this great nation? Work obligations? A boss who won’t let you come and go as you please? The fact that gas now costs more than $4.50 a gallon?”

“Or do you just need a little inspiration?”

“Well, don’t worry, Transportation secretary Sean Duffy is here to help! Not by, like, doing anything to lower fuel costs, but by sharing a family road-trip reality TV show he’s been filming over the past seven months.”

“Friday on Fox & Friends, the secretary and his wife, Fox News host Rachel Campos-Duffy, revealed that they celebrated the semiquincentennial by traveling the country with their nine children. And they filmed the whole adventure for a reality series called The Great American Road Trip, which launches on YouTube next month.”

Republicans Are Building an Advantage in Redistricting

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Nate Cohn: “If everything stays as is — and with Alabama, South Carolina and Louisiana enacting new maps — Republicans will obtain a significant structural advantage. To win the House, Democrats could need to win the House combined national popular vote by around four percentage points, according to our estimates.”

“A four-point structural advantage wouldn’t be enough to make the Republicans favorites to win the House, but it gives them a real shot at it. In polling averages, Democrats lead by six points on the so-called generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they’ll support for Congress. But if Republicans make gains between now and November or pull off enough victories in key races, they could have a chance to retain control of the House even while losing the national vote by a significant margin.”

“A different way to consider the Republican advantage is to look at the kinds of seats they would need to win. Here, the most popular measure is the median congressional district — the district that would serve as a tipping point for House control. By this measure — after the Southern states redraw their maps — the median district will have voted for Mr. Trump by 5.5 points in 2024, or about four points more Republican than his 1.5-point margin in the 2024 national popular vote.”

Six Months Out from the Midterms

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I joined John Ellis on the News Items podcast for a wide-ranging conversation about the state of American politics.

We talked about Donald Trump’s sinking approval numbers, Democratic momentum heading into the midterms, the races that could determine control of the Senate and the political backlash building around AI data centers.

We also looked ahead to the future of the Republican party after Trump — and whether someone not yet on the radar could define the 2028 presidential race.

The discussion was part campaign analysis, part media conversation and part political shop talk. You can listen here: 


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Trump’s Team Expands Redistricting Push

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“President Trump and top aides are pressuring Republican leaders in South Carolina and other Southern states to pursue mid-decade redistricting plans after the Supreme Court weakened the Voting Rights Act,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“White House officials have been met with notes of caution about redistricting in the Palmetto State, which is a major focus of the push, including from Republican Gov. Henry McMaster and GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham. That has prompted Trump officials to place calls to multiple Republican state senators to urge action on redistricting.”

“Trump officials have also called GOP officials in Georgia, Louisiana, Alabama and Tennessee in support of redistricting… making the case that the issue remains important to the president.”

Trump Is ‘Bored’ With the War He Started

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Jonathan Lemire: “Trump is tired of the war, which has proved far more difficult and lasted far longer than he had expected. His party is warily watching rising gas prices and falling poll numbers. He doesn’t want to be bogged down in a Middle East conflict like some of his predecessors were. He doesn’t want it to upend his high-stakes summit next week in China. He is ready to move on.”

“But Iran, it seems, does not want the war to come to a close. Or at least not with any sort of outcome that could be acceptable to American negotiators. Trump is now in a bind. The president, five aides and outside advisers told me, is convinced that he can sell any sort of agreement as a win. But at least for now, the man who wrote The Art of the Deal can’t even get Iran to the negotiating table.”

For Your Weekend Listening

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Trump’s Ruthless Midterm Power Play

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“President Trump is flexing his dominance over the Republican Party to stamp out primaries that would bleed party coffers and fracture the GOP ahead of a treacherous midterm election,” Axios reports.

“If the party defies expectations and keeps control of Congress this fall, Trump’s ruthless maneuvers to sideline some candidates while forcefully backing others will be a big reason.”

How China’s Leader Lost Faith in His Generals

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New York Times: “The crisis threatens one of Mr. Xi’s great feats: the transformation of the Chinese military into a formidable force with new aircraft carriers, hypersonic missiles and an expanding nuclear arsenal. And it comes as China’s rivalry with the United States has intensified, and as the Trump administration has put American firepower, and its limits, on vivid display in Venezuela and Iran.”

“China’s war readiness may be disrupted for years by the very cleanup that Mr. Xi has said is necessary to purify and strengthen the ranks. What once looked like a limited crackdown on corruption became a sweeping dismissal of dozens of top officers, and culminated in the downfall early this year of Zhang Youxia, China’s top uniformed commander, who had appeared to be a confidant of Mr. Xi’s.”

The Era of Perpetual Redistricting

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New York Times: “A coast-to-coast sprint of partisan one-upmanship in which eight states have redrawn their congressional districts since last summer is likely to escalate next year to at least a dozen more as both parties seek maximum advantage in their battle for control of the House.”

“Four states are considering drawing new congressional or judicial maps for partisan gain in the coming weeks that could be implemented in time for the fall midterms. But the real flurry could come next year, when at least a dozen more that sat out this year’s redistricting parade could join the fray.”

Top Maryland Democrat Fighting for His Job

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“As Republican Indiana state senators lost their seats this week in a revenge-fueled primary after defying President Donald Trump on redistricting, the prominent Maryland Democrat who also sank partisan gerrymandering took note,” the Washington Post reports.

“Maryland Senate President Bill Ferguson (D) faces a Democratic version of that retribution, drawing the most difficult primary challenge of his 16-year career.”

“Like the ousted Indiana Republicans, Ferguson defied demands from his party’s leaders to create new congressional maps to boost chances of controlling the U.S. House. He, too, faces political consequences after rejecting efforts to eliminate the state’s one GOP-leaning House district.”

10 Days That Shook the House Map

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“Just two weeks ago, Democrats felt increasingly emboldened about taking control of the House in November after seeming to fight the redistricting wars to a draw,” the New York Times reports.

“But two court rulings — one by the Supreme Court and another by Virginia’s top court — and an aggressive new push by red states to carve up congressional maps have delivered the Republican Party its biggest burst of momentum in many months.”

“Put bluntly, Republicans have roughly 10 more House seats that favor them than they did just 10 days ago, and Democrats are suddenly grappling with a new landscape.”

Washington Post: “With GOP wins on election maps, Democrats have a steeper climb to victory.”

Marco Rubio Seems to Be Having a Grand Time

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Matt Viser: “It’s a low bar, perhaps, but no one in the Trump administration seems to be having more fun at the moment than Marco Rubio. Last weekend, he was acting as a DJ at a family wedding, headphones to his ear with head and hand pumping to the beat. Midweek, the secretary of state was at the podium in the White House briefing room, spitting rap lyrics and cracking jokes.”

“And toward the end of the week, he was in Vatican City, being escorted through marble hallways by members of the Pontifical Swiss Guard for an audience with Pope Leo XIV, who has been criticized by the president and vice president.”

“Rubio comes across as the happy warrior, not the angry one—the one offering lighthearted jokes more than brash confrontation.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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