Nate Cohn: “If everything stays as is — and with Alabama, South Carolina and Louisiana enacting new maps — Republicans will obtain a significant structural advantage. To win the House, Democrats could need to win the House combined national popular vote by around four percentage points, according to our estimates.”
“A four-point structural advantage wouldn’t be enough to make the Republicans favorites to win the House, but it gives them a real shot at it. In polling averages, Democrats lead by six points on the so-called generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they’ll support for Congress. But if Republicans make gains between now and November or pull off enough victories in key races, they could have a chance to retain control of the House even while losing the national vote by a significant margin.”
“A different way to consider the Republican advantage is to look at the kinds of seats they would need to win. Here, the most popular measure is the median congressional district — the district that would serve as a tipping point for House control. By this measure — after the Southern states redraw their maps — the median district will have voted for Mr. Trump by 5.5 points in 2024, or about four points more Republican than his 1.5-point margin in the 2024 national popular vote.”
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