Jonathan Bernstein: “The bottom line is that candidates just aren’t all that important to general election outcomes, especially at the presidential level. Most voters stick with their party; most independents are actually partisans; and most true independents tend to be swayed far more by ‘fundamentals’ such as the state of the economy than they are by the candidates’ personalities or campaign styles.”

“It doesn’t seem that way because U.S. political culture supports voting for the person, not the party, and so people not only are reluctant to say that they’re just knee-jerk voting for Democrats or Republicans but actually don’t think they’re doing so. And to most of us, it seems that we’re considering candidates individually and voting for the one we like the best. But it (almost always) ain’t so.”

“Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) is betting big on President Donald Trump’s controversial megalaw — embracing the tax-and-spend package with a series of five ads as he runs for reelection in a pivotal swing district,” Politico reports.

“The commercials represent the first time that any House Republican — no less a vulnerable one like Lawler — is touting the measure on the airwaves directly to voters, according to the House GOP’s campaign arm. And he’s focusing on Medicaid provisions in the law that he expects will prove popular, countering Democratic attacks over health care spending cuts.”

Semafor: Republicans double down on Trump’s megabill.