“Rep. Ritchie Torres (D-NY) on Wednesday called for a federal probe into suspicious trading activity in oil and equity futures markets just before President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day delay in attacks on Iran’s energy infrastructure in March,” CNBC reports.
Michael Avenatti Released from Prison
“Michael Avenatti — the blustery lawyer who repped Stormy Daniels in her lawsuit against Donald Trump and then went to prison for ripping her and other clients off — is now a free man. Well, sort of,” TMZ reports.
“Avenatti is not a fully free man. He’s been ordered to serve more time in a halfway house in Hollywood. He’s also required to participate in mental health treatment and stay away from unlawful controlled substances. His projected release date is September 2028.”
Justice Department Says Pam Bondi Won’t Testify
Washington Post: “Former attorney general Pam Bondi will not appear on Capitol Hill next week for scheduled testimony about the Justice Department’s investigations of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, department officials said Wednesday.”
“But House Republicans signaled that she may not be off the hook yet.”
Trump Made a Deal That Gives Him Nothing He Wanted
Nancy Youssef: “President Trump said he went to war to ensure that Iran never acquired a nuclear bomb. The war ended—for now, at least—with a demonstration that Tehran possesses an arguably more powerful weapon of deterrence against future attacks, one that is cheaper to use, gives Iran enormous sway over the global economy, can bring in revenue, and can’t be negotiated away: the Strait of Hormuz.”
“More than 12,000 U.S. missiles, bombs, and drones hit Iranian targets over the past five weeks, destroying the country’s navy and much of its military infrastructure. Several of Iran’s leaders and some 1,500 of its citizens were killed, including more than 170 who died in a strike on a girls’ school that was the apparent result of errant targeting. But 12 hours after Trump threatened to destroy Iranian civilization and weeks after demanding Iran’s ‘unconditional surrender,’ the United States agreed to a two-week cease-fire last night while settlement talks play out.”
“Among the president’s initial war goals—preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon; eliminating its ballistic-missile capabilities; laying the ground for a popular overthrow of the regime; and eradicating Iranian proxies in the Persian Gulf—none have been met.”
Iran Will Probably Get a Nuclear Weapon Eventually
Jonathan Last: “Follow the logic: Iran’s purpose in pursuing nukes wasn’t to use the first one on Tel Aviv. It was going to use nukes the same way North Korea does—as a guarantor of regime survival. Once Iran has nukes, it can play chicken with the biggest powers on the planet and get away with literal murder. Russia’s doing exactly that right now.”
“For Iran, the dangerous period was the time between when everyone found out they were going for a nuke—c. 2002—and the time when they actually have a nuke. During that time, their nuclear program was routinely attacked—by sanctions, by cyberattacks, by an assassination campaign against their nuclear scientists, and finally by massive bombs from airplanes. All this to prevent them from obtaining a strategic deterrent that can hold all other powers at bay.”
“But now they have such a deterrent in the Strait of Hormuz, which they have proven they can hold under threat even against the American military. If Iran can hold the strait under threat, then maybe they can prevent anyone from attacking their nuclear program again. Until they get a bomb. And then they have two strategic deterrents.”
Is the Iran War Over?
Punchbowl News: “Top Trump administration officials — including the president — are talking like the war with Iran is already over…”
“Reality check. Iran maintains that it controls the strait, and is demanding crypto fees for oil tankers that pass through the waterway. Countries in the Gulf region — Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates — all reported Iranian attacks since the ceasefire announcement.”
“Iran still has stores of enriched uranium. Tehran’s shoot-down of a U.S. fighter jet last week sparked skepticism that claims of complete American air superiority over Iran are overstated. And a final, lasting peace deal between the U.S. and Iran has still not been inked.”
A Complete Strategic Failure
Phillips O’Brien: “Donald Trump yesterday showed how few cards the USA had to play in his war of choice, when he went from threatening to destroy Iranian people, culture and history, to agreeing to a two-week ceasefire and talks based on an Iranian ten point plan.”
“The details of this plan amount to a comprehensive US defeat. If this indeed is the end of the war and that Iranian plan is the basis of a deal, it makes this if not the longest war in US history, the most pointless and a complete waste. Iran looks on the verge of emerging stronger, with the ability to generate massive new income, while the US looks, in a word, a busted flush.”
“This is no run of the mill TACO. This is complete US strategic failure.”
Iran Halts Oil Tanker Traffic
“Iran is halting oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz after Israel attacked Lebanon,” CNN reports.
“Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said earlier that Lebanon was included in the ceasefire between Israel, the United States and Iran, but the Israeli military said attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon would continue.”
Iran’s Peace Proposal Differed From the One Released
“When President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran yesterday, he said the US had received a 10-point peace proposal that he believed was a ‘workable basis on which to negotiate,’” CNN reports.
“But when Iran later released a 10-point proposal to reporters, it was different from the one to which Trump was referring.”
Our Hormuz Humiliation
Paul Krugman: “So the world’s greatest military power went to war with a poor, medievalist theocracy. It was an incredibly uneven match…”
“Yet Iran won. The Iranian regime has emerged far stronger than it was before, controlling the Strait of Hormuz and having demonstrated its ability to inflict damage on both its neighbors and the world economy. The U.S. has emerged far weaker, having demonstrated the limitations of its military technology, its strategic ineptitude and, when push comes to shove, its cowardice.”
“We’ve also destroyed our moral credibility: Trump may have TACOed at the last minute, but he threatened to commit gigantic war crimes — and for all practical purposes our political and civil institutions gave him permission to do so.”
Israel Not Happy About Ceasefire
“Israel, which wasn’t formally part of the Iran negotiations, expressed unhappiness after learning that a deal was finalized at a late stage without its consultation,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Israel said it had halted attacks on Iran but was continuing military operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah, prompting protests from Iran.”
Politico: Israel greets Iran ceasefire with more unease than relief.
Fragile Ceasefire Largely Holding
“A two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran appeared to be largely holding on Wednesday, as both sides claimed victory amid deep uncertainty about plans to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the next steps in the diplomatic process,” the New York Times reports.
Axios: Iran ceasefire clouded by confusion, contradictions.
Schumer Will Help Candidates Who Want Him Gone
Time: “Chuck Schumer might have to swallow the bitter pill of backing his haters.”
“As this year’s Senate map appears to be shifting more in Democrats’ favor, some of the Senate Minority Leader’s preferred candidates are struggling in their primaries. In key states like Maine, Iowa, Michigan, and Minnesota, Democrats may ultimately settle on nominees explicitly running to remove Schumer from leadership. The pragmatic Schumer is making clear that he won’t let his ego override his desire to see Democrats regain control of the chamber, according to conversations with a half dozen party insiders.”
“That means Schumer is prepared to root for—and, if needed, put serious money behind—candidates who have made trashing him part of their messaging.”
What Did Democrats Win from the Shutdown Fight?
Time: “As part of the deal to restore funding for most of DHS, Democrats agreed to forgo the reforms they had been demanding for nearly two months, winding down a shutdown that has inconvenienced thousands of travellers and prompted resignations by hundreds of TSA workers. There is still no ban on masked agents, no requirement that immigration officers obtain judicial warrants to enter homes, and no new use-of-force standards.”
“The episode has raised a central question that cuts through the party’s claim of success: What, exactly, did Democrats win?”
Israel Escalates Attacks on Lebanon
“Israel launched on Wednesday what it said was the heaviest wave of bombardment in Lebanon yet in its monthlong war against Iran-backed Hezbollah as a U.S.-Israeli cease-fire with Iran took effect,” the New York Times reports.
“The sharp escalation — with more than 100 airstrikes in the space of just 10 minutes — punctuated an announcement by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel that Lebanon would be excluded from the truce with Iran.”
CNN: Israel launches fresh strike in Beirut.
Axios: U.S. says Iran ceasefire doesn’t apply to Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
An Incredibly Weird Time to Be Alive
Charlie Warzel: “The world witnessed the best and worst of humanity in a single week.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“Trump is a military moron.”
— Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.), quoted by the Wall Street Journal.
Hegseth Declares ‘Decisive’ Victory Over Iran
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared a “decisive military victory” over Iran, saying the country’s missile program was functionally destroyed, the Wall Street Journal reports.
