Iran Will Probably Get a Nuclear Weapon Eventually

Jonathan Last: “Follow the logic: Iran’s purpose in pursuing nukes wasn’t to use the first one on Tel Aviv. It was going to use nukes the same way North Korea does—as a guarantor of regime survival. Once Iran has nukes, it can play chicken with the biggest powers on the planet and get away with literal murder. Russia’s doing exactly that right now.”

“For Iran, the dangerous period was the time between when everyone found out they were going for a nuke—c. 2002—and the time when they actually have a nuke. During that time, their nuclear program was routinely attacked—by sanctions, by cyberattacks, by an assassination campaign against their nuclear scientists, and finally by massive bombs from airplanes. All this to prevent them from obtaining a strategic deterrent that can hold all other powers at bay.”

“But now they have such a deterrent in the Strait of Hormuz, which they have proven they can hold under threat even against the American military. If Iran can hold the strait under threat, then maybe they can prevent anyone from attacking their nuclear program again. Until they get a bomb. And then they have two strategic deterrents.”