Coming this summer: Democracy on the Edge: The Trump Elections and the Future of American Politics by John Kenneth White and Matthew Kerbel.
How the American political parties have brought us to a crossroads for democracy.
How AI Will Change Politics in 2028 and Beyond
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Senate to Vote on Private Equity Housing Ban
“The Senate is expected to vote Monday on a bipartisan bill that includes limits on private equity ownership of single-family homes,” Axios reports.
Justices Will Decide Four Cases Defining Trump’s Power
“Ever since President Trump returned to office last January, he and the Supreme Court have been locked in an uneasy tango. Now, the tempo is about to quicken,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Over the next two weeks, the court will race to clear its docket before the justices take their annual summer break. Four remaining cases involve Trump’s aggressive efforts to expand his own power. In at least a couple of them, the justices seem inclined to rein him in. What the court says—and how it says it—will help define its relationship with a pugnacious president for the remainder of his time in office.”
“The justices are weighing whether Trump can redefine birthright citizenship, fire a governor of the Federal Reserve, consolidate power over independent agencies and strip protections from hundreds of thousands of immigrants. Though the four cases turn on different legal issues, together they will send a strong signal about how far the court’s conservative majority is willing to let Trump go, legal experts say.”
Congressional Democrats Warn Pulte Against Mass Firings
“The new acting director of national intelligence is expected to announce significant cuts to his office as early as Monday, current and former officials said, prompting a warning from the top Democrats on the congressional intelligence committees,” the New York Times reports.
Trump Threatens Jail Time for Reflecting Pool Fiasco
“Donald Trump has once again threatened to prosecute the supposed ‘vandals’ he’s claiming have turned the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool into an algae-infested mess, with the paint job the government spent millions in taxpayer money to apply already peeling off,” Rolling Stone reports.
“The shoddy, rushed ‘renovation’ carried out through an overpriced no-bid contract is not the problem, nor are the pool’s longstanding filtration issues that experts warned a layer of epoxy would not fix. No, the president has decided that his humiliation lays at the feet of unnamed, invisible operatives sabotaging his latest vanity project.”
Ukraine Escalates Crimea Attacks
New York Times: “Ukrainian officials have described the Crimea campaign as an important strategic development that could help end the war, and gloated about their success in attacking oil infrastructure, military targets and vital supply routes into the peninsula.”
Bloomberg: Russia-occupied Crimea halts fuel sales after Ukrainian attacks.
U.S. Oil Skipping Chance to Grab Share from the Gulf
“The war with Iran has pulled the American oil industry out of a slump, raising corporate profits and spurring some companies to drill more wells,” the New York Times reports.
“U.S. oil production is now forecast to grow modestly next year, topping 14 million barrels a day for the first time.”
“But the war, paused for now by a preliminary deal, is unlikely to provide enough of a lift for the United States to take significant business from Persian Gulf countries that have been hobbled by the conflict, oil executives and investors said.”
U.S. Authorizes Limited Iranian Oil Sales Under Trump Deal
“The U.S. has authorized the sale of Iranian oil and petroleum products as part of the agreement to end the war against Tehran that President Donald Trump signed last week, a sweeping change after years of increasingly punitive economic sanctions,” Bloomberg reports.
Semafor: Can the U.S. waive sanctions on Iranian oil?
Trump Threatens Election Funding Cuts to Force Changes
“The Trump administration is threatening to withhold tens of millions of dollars in federal homeland security funds from states unless they adopt a sweeping set of election changes,” CNN reports.
“The move is part of President Donald Trump’s campaign to root out alleged voter fraud — despite studies showing it’s far rarer than he claims — and exert more federal influence over how elections are run. It comes as multiple states have passed laws that seek to prevent the federal government from interfering with elections.”
The Election System Wasn’t Built for This
Yvonne Wingett Sanchez: “Not so long ago, the Republicans who ran elections in one of the nation’s most important battlegrounds—Maricopa County, Arizona—largely got along. There were egos and quibbles, sure. But in the face of unyielding attacks on elections led by President Trump, the recorder and board of supervisors—which together split election duties—resolved conflicts without blowing up a delicate system built on trust and cooperation.”
“Today’s recorder and board, a mostly new cast chosen by voters in 2024, are different. They’re locked in an all-out war over the machinery, money, and operations that make the democratic process possible. Both sides agree that the standoff threatens their ability to carry out November’s midterm elections free of complications for the county’s 2.6 million voters, more than half the state’s total.”
‘Alligator Alcatraz’ Shutting Down Permanently
“Companies hired by the state to operate the Florida migrant detention center known as ‘Alligator Alcatraz’ were notified Monday morning to begin ‘full demobilization’ of the facility, quietly bringing an ignominious close a $1.2 billion experiment that was once hailed by Gov. Ron DeSantis and President Trump as a model other states should pursue,” CBS News reports.
Swing Voters Are Still Mad at Republicans About Abortion
Sarah Longwell: “I can’t tell you how many times I’ve heard voters—even swing voters and conservatives—say some version of ‘I’m pro-life, but I believe in a woman’s right to choose.’ Translation: Voters can be personally uncomfortable with abortion and still believe that the state-level bans are a bridge too far.”
“In recent focus groups I’ve conducted, abortion still pops up as an issue. That’s especially true in states with very restrictive abortion bans—including some that have key Senate and gubernatorial races this year, like Iowa and Texas.”
Vance Says Iran Agrees to Nuclear Inspections
“Vice President JD Vance said Iran agreed to allow international inspections of its nuclear program, which would restore a safeguard from President Barack Obama’s deal with Tehran that President Donald Trump threw out,” the Washington Post reports.
Said Vance: “That is a major milestone for the American people, and the first step in permanently denuclearizing or permanently ending a nuclear weapons program in Iran.”
NOTUS: Vance says nuclear inspectors will enter Iran.
The Internet Made Donald Trump Possible
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Why Biden’s Age Became Liability and Trump’s Didn’t
Julia Azari: “The simplest difference is that the Democratic coalition is younger on balance – Democratic presidential candidates have won with younger voters (usually defined as 18-29) since 2004, and the party has an edge with this group.”
“Data bear out the stereotypes: the Republicans do better with older voters, even if this age gap didn’t play out exactly as expected in the 2024 election. Biden’s age was one more thing placing him at odds with the diverse party he was trying to lead, and Democrats seem to have had a uncomfortable relationship with this state of affairs. Watching Biden show signs of age did not help.”
Democrats’ Great Alaskan Hope
Marc Novicoff: “The Democrat Mary Peltola has led in every public poll since she declared for the U.S. Senate election this year in Alaska, a state that Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. A former U.S representative, Peltola is a culturally moderate mother of seven whose top issue is fish.”
“Unlike the candidates dominating national headlines, she’s neither a social-media sensation nor a charismatic progressive. Most people outside Alaska have never heard of her. That’s a problem from a fundraising perspective—but an asset from an electoral one. If Peltola is a little boring, that’s exactly why she’s the Democrat most likely to flip a red-state Senate seat this year.”
“Peltola does not resemble a stereotypical Democratic politician. Both her biography and her political positions suggest someone attuned to the importance of environmental preservation—and to the simultaneous economic value of resource extraction.”
Trump’s Approval Rate Ticks Even Lower
A new American Research Group poll finds just 30% of Americans say they approve of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president and 66% say they disapprove.
When it comes to Trump’s handling of the economy, 26% of Americans approve and 70% disapprove.
