Paul Krugman: “Yesterday’s CPI report looked fairly tame on the surface, but if you look at the details it showed clear signs that Trump’s tariffs are starting to drive up prices.”

“And private surveys suggest that there’s a lot more inflation in the pipeline. For example, look at S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index for manufacturing, which shows the percentage of firms reporting higher prices. A higher number almost always points to higher official inflation ahead, and right now it’s definitely telling us that tariffs are about to hit hard.”

“A chaotic rollout of tariffs is starting to filter through to price tags on store shelves. An immigration crackdown is beginning to weigh on jobs growth, measured by federal surveys. Taken together, the impact of President Trump’s whirlwind six months back in office is showing up in the economy,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The effect isn’t yet enough to derail the economy, which by many measures has weathered Trump’s trade wars much better than many on Wall Street and in Washington feared. Economists see less risk of a recession now than three months ago, a Wall Street Journal survey found.”

“Yet a long stretch when Trump’s policies left little imprint on the hard data appears to be ending.”