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Brazil’s Election Is About Lula — Again

December 29, 2025 at 10:27 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Economist: “Brazil’s elections may well be kinder to incumbent president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, known as Lula. That is remarkable. In early 2025 Lula’s approval ratings were crumbling. Tainted by widespread corruption scandals during his first two terms, he has been extremely vulnerable to accusations of graft anywhere in his government, such as a scandal at Brazil’s pensions institute, during his third term.”

“The 80-year-old—just 11 months younger than Joe Biden was at the equivalent point in his aborted re-election campaign against Mr Trump—had just undergone brain surgery. The Brazilian left, dominated by Lula’s Workers’ Party, was on the verge of full-blown panic.”

“Then came Mr Trump’s tariffs, a failed assault on Brazil’s justice system, and, in November, the jailing of Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s former president. The right has flailed in the vacuum left by its populist figurehead. Lula’s approval ratings have surged. As things stand he is now the favourite to win in October.”

Trump’s Texas Troubles

December 29, 2025 at 10:27 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Texas is still Trump country, but the president’s economic policies are starting to sting — and the fallout could hurt Republicans at the ballot box in 2026.”

“Donald Trump took 56 percent of the vote in Texas when he won in 2024, improving his margins from both of his previous campaigns. Republicans also held onto their two-decade majority in the state legislature in the Lone Star State.”

“But as 2025 closes out, polls show growing unrest within the Texas economy, and voters are beginning to blame Trump and Republicans for failing to produce results.”

Key takeaway: “There are signs that Trump’s signature policies are responsible for some of the malaise.”

U.S. Stocks Eclipsed by Rest of World

December 29, 2025 at 9:49 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“U.S. stocks have been eclipsed by market gains in the rest of the world in 2025, as worries about high valuations, a Chinese artificial intelligence breakthrough and Donald Trump’s radical economic policies contributed to a rare year of underperformance for Wall Street,” the Financial Times reports.

“The S&P 500 was up 17 percent this year in early trading on Monday, undershooting the 29 percent gain for the MSCI All Country World ex-U.S. index by the widest margin since the global financial crisis in 2009.”

Trump Says U.S. ‘Knocked Out’ Facility in Venezuela

December 29, 2025 at 9:36 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump said the United States had taken out a “big facility” last week as part of a pressure campaign against Venezuela but did not provide further details on the reported US action, CNN reports.

Said Trump: “We just knocked out — I don’t know if you read or you saw — they have a big plant, or a big facility, where the ships come from. Two nights ago, we knocked that out. So we hit them very hard.”

The New Surveillance State Is You

December 29, 2025 at 9:26 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wired: “Privacy may be dead, but civilians are turning conventional wisdom on its head by surveilling the cops as much as the cops surveil them.”

How Kevin Hassett Became a Fed Chair Contender

December 29, 2025 at 9:22 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“For years, Kevin Hassett, an economist who advised the presidential campaigns of John McCain, George W. Bush and Mitt Romney, favored classic conservative economic principles. A longtime scholar at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, he promoted the idea that free trade was the path to national prosperity and argued that more immigration was good for the economy,” the New York Times reports.

“But as the director of President Trump’s National Economic Council, Mr. Hassett’s policy views are barely recognizable to those who have known him for decades. These days he supports tariffs and claims they are having little impact on consumer prices. He also says deportations are healthy for a labor market that has long relied on immigrants…”

“Mr. Hassett’s ability to adjust his policy positions as needed has allowed him to rise within the president’s orbit of advisers and helped put him in pole position to be Mr. Trump’s pick for the next chair of the Federal Reserve. As one of the front-runners on Mr. Trump’s shortlist to replace Jerome H. Powell, investors and policymakers have been straining to divine what Mr. Hassett truly believes, and if he wins the job, whether he will be able to endure political pressure from the White House to cut interest rates at all costs.”

Looking for a Political Job?

December 29, 2025 at 9:20 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Take time to visit the completely revamped Political Job Hunt.

Experts Question Denmark’s Vaccine Program

December 29, 2025 at 9:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The United States, a nation of 343 million people with a complex and overburdened health care system, is poised to adopt the childhood vaccine recommendations used in Denmark, a country of six million with universal health care. The decision has alarmed public health experts in both countries,” the New York Times reports.

“Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the U.S. health secretary, is expected to announce the move in the new year. It would reduce the number of immunizations required for American children to 10 from 17, radically changing the recommended vaccines without the deliberative process that the United States has relied on for decades.”

Trump Approval Underwater in 49 States on Inflation

December 29, 2025 at 9:17 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

G. Elliot Morris: “By now, we should all know that Donald Trump is very unpopular nationally, but what does that mean at the state level?”

“The charts below show estimated Trump approval (a) overall and (b) for his handling of inflation, for each state, combining all the interviews we conducted in 2025 (from May through November). Trump’s approval overall among adults is pretty abysmal (positive in just 11 states), but it’s downright catastrophic on inflation; Trump’s only positive rating is in Oklahoma.”

Is Beth Macy the Liberal JD Vance?

December 29, 2025 at 7:31 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “One need not be a citizen of the Appalachia-based 6th Congressional District of Virginia for that to be the case. For a certain class of book-reading American — the type with a taste for deeply reported stories about left-behind parts of the country — the woman running for this seat in the United States House is something of a household name.”

“An award-winning reporter for the Roanoke Times for 25 years, she’s the author of five nonfiction books, including three of particular note: Factory Man, her critically acclaimed 2014 debut about globalization’s ravaging of Virginia’s furniture industry; Dopesick, a 2018 tome on America’s opioid crisis that turned into a Hulu series; and the recently released Paper Girl, a memoir about her own hardscrabble childhood and the plight of her fading Ohio hometown.”

“If she wins — a big if in a district that hasn’t elected a Democrat since 1990 — Macy, 61, will be the second writer of at least one bestselling book about hard-hit Appalachia to get elected to federal office.”

These Former Members Want Back In

December 29, 2025 at 7:25 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Washington Post reports at least 18 former members of Congress — 11 Democrats and seven Republicans — are asking voters to send them back to D.C. next year.

Be Prepared to Keep Paying More for Electricity

December 29, 2025 at 7:22 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Most Americans are paying more for electricity—and need to prepare their wallets for further pain ahead,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Data centers are getting much of the blame lately for rising power costs, but they aren’t the only catalyst and don’t always cause increases. The reasons our bills are rising are complex and varied. Hurricanes, wildfires, state renewable-energy plans and the replacement of aging or damaged grid equipment are all playing a role.”

“Discontent over rising power bills has become a hot political issue that is expected to spill into the 2026 midterm elections.”

Justice Department Targets Companies on DEI

December 29, 2025 at 7:19 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Trump administration has launched investigations into the use of diversity initiatives in hiring and promotion at major U.S. companies, built on the novel use of a federal law meant to punish businesses that cheat the government,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The civil probes are proceeding under the umbrella of the False Claims Act, which has traditionally been used to go after contractors who bill the government for work that was never performed or inflate the cost of services rendered.”

“Now the Justice Department is embracing the theory that holding a federal contract while still considering diversity when hiring is in effect fraud against the government that entitles it to recoup potentially millions of dollars.”

Just Keeping Trump Talking Counts as a Win

December 29, 2025 at 7:17 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A new round of peace talks between President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine and President Trump seem to have produced little beyond a promise to meet again next month and a reminder of how distant a peace deal remains,” the New York Times reports.

“Yet for Mr. Zelensky, even a stalemate in the discussions counts as progress.”

Washington Post: Trump and Zelensky strike hopeful tone after talks as hurdles remain.

Netanyahu Faces Mounting Pressure

December 29, 2025 at 7:15 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Benjamin Netanyahu has been prime minister of Israel for so long that nearly everyone knows how he governs,” the New York Times reports.

“He delays decisions. He keeps options open for as long as possible and creates new ones whenever he can. He wears down, outwaits and outlasts his adversaries — as well as his ostensible allies. He turns crises — including some of his own creation — into opportunities he can defuse, for a price.”

“But events are lining up in a way that may tax even his well-documented ability to stretch out tough decisions and shape them to his advantage.”

Pipe Bomb Suspect Confessed

December 29, 2025 at 6:41 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Virginia man arrested this month on charges of placing two pipe bombs in Washington on the night before a pro-Trump mob stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, has given a detailed confession,” the New York Times reports.

“Brian J. Cole Jr., felt he needed to ‘speak up’ after he began to suspect that the 2020 election, in which President Trump was defeated, had been ‘tampered with.’”

Axios: DNC, RNC pipe bomb suspect told FBI “something just snapped.”

How Vance Brokered a Truce Between Musk and Trump

December 29, 2025 at 6:37 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “The months-long offensive by Vance and other White House officials, the details of which have not been previously reported, has worked.”

“Having scrapped his third party project, Musk appeared at the White House in November, attending a dinner for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia. The killing of conservative activist Charlie Kirk spurred Musk to put support behind GOP campaigns in the midterms… Privately, Musk is considering reworking his donations by seeding existing groups with cash rather than wielding his own super PAC.”

“But though Trump and Musk are once again on good terms, their truce is fragile, allies of both men say.”

Quote of the Day

December 29, 2025 at 6:33 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Our side has been trained by Donald Trump to never apologize and to never admit when you’re wrong. You just keep pummeling your enemies, no matter what. And as a Christian, I don’t believe in doing that. I agree with Erika Kirk, who did the hardest thing possible and said it out loud.”

— Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), quoted by the New York Times.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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