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The Obama Coalition Turned Into the Trump Coalition

May 20, 2025 at 5:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Cook Political Report: “Back in 2012, Barack Obama’s campaign had a mantra — a younger, more diverse electorate was the key to reelection. Had the 2024 electorate been in place in 2012, the team in Chicago would’ve been over the moon. The electorate last fall was three points less white than it was 12 years ago. What’s more, the youngest cohort of voters by generational breakdown made up 36% of the electorate (compared to 18% in 2012), while the oldest cohort was just 39% (down from 57% in 2012).”

“And, yet, that coalition was much friendlier to Donald Trump than to any other GOP nominee.”

“So what happened?”

Playbook: “Harris seriously struggled with younger, more-diverse and less-engaged voters shifting significantly to the right — a change from Democrats’ typically stronger showing with infrequent or new voters.”

Trump Finally Enters the Fray

May 20, 2025 at 5:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “President Donald Trump will leave the gold-gilded White House this morning to join a rambunctious and divided House Republican Conference in the dank Capitol basement.”

“Trump’s goal is to try to get the House Republican Conference to coalesce around the “One Big, Beautiful Bill.” Speaker Mike Johnson can’t close this vote out on his own. As we saw with the speaker vote, the government-funding bill and the budget resolution earlier this year, Trump remains the only person in town who can move House Republicans en masse.”

“But what he’ll find this morning is a House Republican Conference with vastly different interpretations of Trump-era Republicanism.”

Washington Post: The fate of Trump’s agenda rests with the House GOP’s “five families.”

The Hill: Here’s what’s in the GOP’s 1,116-page “big, beautiful bill.”

Trump Backs Off Demand That Russia Declare Cease-Fire

May 20, 2025 at 5:28 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump on Monday backed off his demand that Russia declare an immediate cease-fire in Ukraine, instead endorsing President Vladimir Putin’s call for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia,” the New York Times reports.

“It was a shift from Mr. Trump’s recent threats of more pressure on Russia, such as when he raised the prospect of new banking sanctions in April because Mr. Putin may not ‘want to stop the war’ and ‘has to be dealt with differently.’”

“Mr. Trump also appeared enthusiastic to surrender his mediating role to a higher power: the pope.”


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Migrant Labor Force Withstands Mass Deportations

May 20, 2025 at 5:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump’s mass-deportation push has instilled widespread fear among migrants. What it hasn’t done, so far, is stop many from showing up for work,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“While data covering immigrants lacking permanent legal status is fragmentary, what’s available shows no broad pullback from the labor force.”

U.S. Fiscal Situation Threatens Good Mood on Wall Street

May 20, 2025 at 5:23 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “Investors sold U.S. government bonds and the dollar on Monday, after Moody’s Ratings late last week stripped the U.S. of its last triple-A credit rating, citing large budget deficits and rising interest costs. Adding to the nerves about America’s debt trajectory, the House Budget Committee approved a tax-and-spending bill Sunday that is projected to add trillions of dollars to those deficits.”

“Though stocks ended the session higher, selling pushed up yields on longer-term Treasurys, which rise when bond prices fall. The yield on the 30-year bond briefly topped 5% before settling just below that threshold, still near its highest level of the year.”

Senate Advances Major Crypto Regulation Bill

May 19, 2025 at 10:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Senate advanced a major cryptocurrency regulation bill Monday on a bipartisan vote two weeks after every Senate Democrat united to block it,” NBC News reports.

“The procedural vote on the GENIUS Act — which would establish the first regulatory framework for issuers of stablecoins, digital tokens pegged to fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar — was 66-32. Sixteen Democrats voted with the majority of Senate Republicans to advance the bill.”

Apple May Raise iPhone Prices Without Blaming Tariffs

May 19, 2025 at 8:59 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Apple is weighing price increases for its fall iPhone lineup, a step it is seeking to couple with new features and design changes,“ the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The company is determined to avoid any scenario in which it appears to attribute price increases to U.S. tariffs on goods from China, where most Apple devices are assembled.”

John Gruber: “If iPhone prices go up in September, everyone who isn’t drunk on MAGA juice is going to blame it on the tariffs.”

Feds Charge Democratic Lawmaker with Assault

May 19, 2025 at 8:40 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Justice Department announced an assault charge Monday against Rep. LaMonica McIver, a New Jersey Democrat who was involved in a chaotic confrontation with officials outside a federal immigration facility earlier this month,” Politico reports.

NBC News: DOJ says it has charged New Jersey congresswoman with assaulting law enforcement at ICE facility.

Trump Contacted Qatar About Plane as ‘Gift’

May 19, 2025 at 8:08 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Trump administration first approached Qatar to inquire about acquiring a Boeing 747 that could be used as Air Force One by President Donald Trump,“ CNN reports.

“That’s contrary to the narrative from the president that Qatar reached out and offered the jet as a ‘gift’ to him.”

Debt Cloud Suddenly Hangs Over Megabill

May 19, 2025 at 8:04 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “A softening Treasury bond market and surprise downgrade Friday of U.S. creditworthiness are the latest forces weighing on the GOP megabill — an unmistakable nudge to lawmakers that investors are growing increasingly concerned about legislation that could pile trillions of dollars more onto an already staggering national debt.”

“That message is being seen as vindication by some Republicans who have long warned about the nation’s unsustainable fiscal trajectory and who have vowed to seek massive spending cuts as part of the pending legislation.”

Trump Questions Why Biden’s Cancer Wasn’t Caught

May 19, 2025 at 6:46 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump on Monday questioned why former President Biden’s prostate cancer diagnosis was not caught and disclosed sooner, The Hill reports.

Said Trump: “I think it’s very sad, actually. I’m surprised that it wasn’t, you know, the public wasn’t notified a long time ago.”

He added: “I think that if you take a look, it’s the same doctor that said Joe was cognitively fine. There was nothing wrong with him… that’s being proven to be a sad situation.”

Republicans Won’t Know What Their Megabill Costs

May 19, 2025 at 6:43 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“House Republicans don’t expect to receive a final cost estimate for their ‘one big, beautiful bill’ before GOP leaders plan to put the massive legislation on the floor,” Politico reports.

“Three Republicans with direct knowledge of the talks confirmed that the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office has conveyed it won’t be able to finish calculating the total price tag of the megabill before Thursday.”

GOP Holdouts Demand More and More

May 19, 2025 at 6:07 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“There are still a number of hang-ups and holdouts. Conservatives aren’t yet on board. Blue-state Republicans don’t have an agreement on the state and local tax deduction. And the bill isn’t even entirely written yet,” NOTUS reports.

“But Speaker Mike Johnson is forging ahead this week with the GOP’s sweeping reconciliation bill, hoping he can somehow meet his self-imposed Memorial Day deadline to pass the legislation.”

“The problem is, for basically every spending cut leaders agree to, there is a vulnerable Republican who grows more uncomfortable with the legislation. And the more kowtowing leaders do for conservatives, the more moderates also want changes.”

Appeals Court Orders Return on Man from El Salvador

May 19, 2025 at 6:05 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A federal appeals court has left in place an order requiring the Trump administration to seek the return of a Venezuelan man deported in March from the U.S. to a prison in El Salvador,” Politico reports.

“A panel of the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals voted 2-1 Monday to deny the administration’s request to block the order a federal judge in Maryland issued after concluding that the man, Daniel Lozano-Camargo, was deported in violation of a legal settlement involving asylum seekers who entered the U.S. as minors.”

Trump Is Tired of Hearing He’s Breaking the Law

May 19, 2025 at 5:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Adam Serwer: “The Trump administration’s relentless assault on the rule of law is a kind of arson: It is setting so many blazes that the fire department is having trouble putting them all out at once. Last week, Donald Trump asked the Supreme Court to cut off the water.”

Nobody in Ukraine Thinks the War Will End Soon

May 19, 2025 at 4:45 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Anne Applebaum: “Ukrainians find none of this surprising, because they have been listening to this kind of language for three years. What they do find surprising is the American president’s tolerance for what looks to them like open mockery. President Donald Trump says he wants a peace negotiation. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky prepared for a peace negotiation. The Russian president turned it into a farce, and will likely proceed with the farce, stringing out Trump for as long as possible and agreeing to more phone calls and meetings in order to avoid new sanctions, distract attention from Russia’s ongoing war crimes, and make the U.S. appear weak.”

“I will not here offer a full explanation for why Trump does not understand the game that Putin is playing, one that is obvious to absolutely everyone else. I will note only that Trump repeatedly misunderstands Putin, overrates his alleged friendship with Putin, and often attributes to Putin motives that are really his own.”

Trump Berates Companies for Warning About Tariffs

May 19, 2025 at 4:38 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump is telling some of the nation’s largest companies that they should eat the cost of his tariffs, as a growing number of businesses signal that they must raise prices to blunt the impact of a persistent global trade war,” the New York Times reports.

“As a result, the man who ran for the presidency by boasting about his business acumen is now openly sparring with corporate America, seeking to dictate how Walmart, Mattel, and other retailers and manufacturers respond to some of the highest levies seen in decades.”

“Since the spring, the United States has imposed a 10 percent tariff on nearly every nation, with steeper duties reserved for specific products and countries, including a minimum 30 percent tax on Chinese imports.”

Mike Johnson to Meet Again with SALT Republicans

May 19, 2025 at 4:28 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Speaker Mike Johnson is set to hold another meeting with Republican members pushing for a higher cap on the state-and-local-tax deduction on Monday night,” Politico reports.

“The 9 p.m. meeting, confirmed by three Republicans granted anonymity to describe private plans, comes amid a final push from GOP leaders toward a vote on the party-line domestic policy bill, with the crucial blue-state tax deduction remaining in flux.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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