Annie Lowrey: “Young people are using ChatGPT to write their applications; HR is using AI to read them; no one is getting hired.”
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The 40% Presidency
Seth Masket: “Presidential approval just doesn’t move around like it used to. The chart below shows Gallup’s data for presidential approval going back to Harry Truman. And one thing that stands out is that approval used to fluctuate a lot more than it has since Obama took office.”
“But more importantly, approval ratings appear unrelated to variations in the economic index.”
Wes Moore Tamps Down Presidential Talk
Maryland Gov. Wes Moore (D) formally launched his reelection bid Tuesday, casting himself as “a person of action” and promising to serve a full four-year term and not launch a widely speculated 2028 bid for president, the Washington Post reports.
Bass Endorses Villaraigosa for California Governor
Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass endorsed former Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa in the 2026 California governor’s race, the Los Angeles Times reports.
Wall Street’s Loudest Trump Critic
“Few on Wall Street are willing to publicly lob any criticism at President Trump. Hedge-fund manager Ken Griffin is an exception,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The founder and chief executive of investing giant Citadel, who is worth an estimated $50 billion and is among the largest Republican donors, has repeatedly voiced disagreement with Trump’s signature initiatives. Griffin has opined on everything from tariffs to mass deportations to the tax cuts and deficit impacts of the Republicans’ sprawling tax and spending legislation signed into law by Trump.”
MAGA Dreams of Even Greater Power Grabs
Axios: “Trump has spent his first eight months smashing norms — and crossing legal lines — in his dizzying pursuit of mass deportations, crime crackdowns, government purges and more.”
“But in MAGA’s maximalist mindset, it’s not enough: The base sees a shrinking window for its revolution, with Trump term-limited and potential midterm losses looming next year.”
“On every political front, the movement is pressing for more — now.”
Exchange of the Day
Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett was interviewed on Fox News by Brett Baier:
BAIER: The 22nd Amendment says you can only run for office for two terms.
BARRETT: True.
BAIER: You think that’s cut-and-dried?
BARRETT: Well, you know, that’s what the amendment says, right? You know, after FDR had four terms, that’s what that amendment says.
Student Test Scores Are Sliding
“Scores for 12th-graders in math and reading continued their years-long slide, reaching new lows on national tests,” the Washington Post reports.
“The declines were underway before the onset of the coronavirus pandemic, which broadly disrupted education, and scores have continued to fall. Policymakers had hoped there would be signs of recovery by 2024, when these tests were administered. Instead, the results were the latest indication of the pervasive challenges facing American schools and students.”
See More Pages From Epstein’s 50th Birthday Book
The Wall Street Journal has more pages from the infamous Jeffrey Epstein birthday book, including a letter from Bill Clinton.
Staffing Crisis Unfolds at BLS
Bloomberg: “A third of high-level roles at the agency that produces marquee numbers on US jobs and inflation are vacant, according to the BLS website.”
“While the commissioner role has been temporarily filled, a range of other leadership positions that oversee various aspects of employment statistics and regional field operations sit empty.”
Missouri Is About to Erase a Democratic Seat
“The Missouri House is expected to approve a new congressional map Tuesday that would eliminate a Democratic-controlled US House seat, as Republicans around the country scramble to boost their chances of retaining control of Congress after next year’s midterm elections,” CNN reports.
Trump Halts IRS Crackdown on Major Tax Shelters
“The Trump administration is quietly dismantling efforts by the Internal Revenue Service to shut down a slew of aggressive tax shelters used by America’s biggest multinational companies and wealthiest people,” the New York Times reports.
Gerrymandering May Get Even Worse
Nate Cohn says if the Supreme Court slashes the Voting Rights Act further in a case they’ll hear next month, Republicans could gerrymander eight more safe seats in the South.
Can a Despised Autocrat Consolidate Power?
Paul Krugman: “Roughly speaking, the American public doesn’t support anything Trump is doing. Yet he has been governing as if he has an overwhelming mandate to do whatever he wants, and to a large extent has been getting away with it. How is he managing that?”
“Part of the answer is anticipatory compliance on the part of members of the elite, from corporate CEOs to university presidents to law partners. Many of our institutions have been giving in to demands that Trump clearly has no legal right to make, out of fear of the consequences if they don’t.”
“Part of the answer is that Trump keeps declaring various kinds of emergency, then claiming that he has extraordinary powers to respond to these supposed emergencies…”
“But are cowardly elites and a compliant Supreme Court that keeps granting emergency powers enough to let a president who has not yet established a widespread climate of fear, who has low and declining public support, consolidate his position as autocrat?”
“Honestly, I have no idea. But I guess we’re going to find out.”
Trump Won’t Be Able to Stop Vote on Epstein Files
“Rep. Thomas Massie’s (R-KY) discharge petition on releasing the Epstein files is all but certain to force a House vote by the end of this month — even if no additional Republicans sign on,” Axios reports.
“That’s bad news for many House Republicans, who are torn between their base’s demand for transparency around the Epstein case and President Trump’s insistence that the matter be dropped.”
“Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) has also publicly opposed the discharge petition, which would undermine his control of the floor.”
Deny, Deny, Deny
Playbook: “How much trouble is the president in? Under normal laws of politics, the answer should be — an awful lot, given the whole world has now seen the suggestive and intensely creepy note included in the pedophile sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein‘s ‘birthday book’ of 2003, bearing what appears to be Trump’s signature.”
“But when Trump’s press secretary Karoline Leavitt arrives in the White House briefing room at 1 p.m. today — and, later, when Trump himself invites the press pool into the Oval Office at 4.30 p.m. — don’t expect the faintest glimpse of admission, contrition or regret. Instead, the playbook will be the same as always. Deny, deny, deny — and counterattack.”
Mamdani Holds Huge Lead in Mayor’s Race
Zohran Mamdani has opened a commanding lead in the race for mayor of New York City, buoyed by support for his affordability platform and by the splintered opposition, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.
The poll found that 46% of likely voters currently planned to choose Mr. Mamdani, the Democratic nominee, in a four-way race.
By comparison, 24% of likely voters in New York City said they would support Andrew Cuomo, 15% would back Curtis Sliwa; and 9% favored Eric Adams.
Senate to Confirm 48 Trump Nominees Next Week
“Senate Republicans are teeing up four dozen sub-Cabinet nominees for confirmation next week as they move toward invoking the so-called ‘nuclear option’ to change the chamber’s rules,” Punchbowl News reports.
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