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Two Fundamental Questions Will Shape 2026

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Amy Walter: “Even as the possibility of new maps in Texas and California may change the size and the shape of the 2026 playing field, the fate of the Republican-controlled House is ultimately still going to be determined by two fundamental questions: how do voters feel about the state of the economy, and how do independent voters assess the party in power?”

“Or, as Matthew Continetti put it in a recent column for Commentary magazine, Republicans’ ability to preserve their congressional majorities relies on ‘inflation and independents.’”

White House Suggests Jailing the Homeless

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“The White House on Tuesday said homeless people in the nation’s capital could be subject to fines and jail time as the administration cracks down on crime,” The Hill reports.

Said press secretary Karoline Leavitt: “The homeless problem has ravaged the city.”

She added: “Homeless individuals will be given the option to leave their encampment, to be taken to a homeless shelter, to be offered addiction or mental health services, and if they refuse, they will be susceptible to fines or to jail time.”

Inside Senate Democrats’ Summer Warpath

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“Senate Democrats held more than 100 events railing against Republican policies in the first week of their summer recess, part of a coordinated push to drive down GOP approval ahead of the 2026 midterms,” Axios reports.

“Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) deployed similar tactics on the campaign trail last year, when his Democrats significantly outperformed the rest of the party in the general election.”

“Schumer wants his caucus to localize the impact of policies Trump and the Republican Congress have embraced in Washington — specifically cuts to health care, tariffs, rising energy costs and tax cuts for the wealthy.”


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Trump’s Show of Force Begins to Take Shape 

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“National Guard troops began to deploy in Washington on Tuesday evening as President Trump’s plan to use the federal government to crack down on crime in the city started taking shape,” the New York Times reports.

“About a dozen members of the National Guard appeared in five military vehicles near the Washington Monument as the sun set, a stark juxtaposition to a peaceful evening scene of people jogging by with headphones and walking their dogs. They declined to answer a reporter’s questions about their mission and about how long they would be there, with one saying he had been instructed not to.”

Mexico Transfers 26 Imprisoned Cartel Members to U.S.

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“Mexico said it expelled a group of 26 imprisoned cartel members wanted by the U.S. in the midst of rising pressure from the Trump administration to dismantle the country’s powerful drug organizations,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The group of alleged drug bosses sent to the U.S. on Tuesday was similar in size to a group of 29 inmates transferred to the U.S. in February.”

DOGE’s Actual Savings Are a Fraction of What It Claims

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“The Trump administration’s claim that it is saving billions of dollars through DOGE-related cuts to federal contracts is drastically exaggerated,” Politico reports.

“Through July, DOGE said it has saved taxpayers $52.8 billion by canceling contracts, but of the $32.7 billion in actual claimed contract savings that Politico could verify, DOGE’s savings over that period were closer to $1.4 billion.”

Trump Is Making Immigration Courts Dysfunctional

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“The immigration court system was already strained when Donald Trump took office in January. Since then, he’s taken dramatic steps to undermine it even further,” MSNBC reports.

“Over the last seven months, Trump has fired immigration judges, weakened due process rights for those facing deportation and pressured judges to rule in the administration’s favor.”

“Some of those fired judges, immigration attorneys and other experts say the end result will be that these courts are either destroyed or left so dysfunctional that they can’t effectively guarantee basic rights.”

‘Big Balls’ May Get Presidential Medal of Freedom

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“An ex-DOGE staffer known as ‘Big Balls’ could end up receiving the highest civilian honor in the United States, placing him in the company of luminaries such as Rosa Parks, Martin Luther King Jr. and Mother Teresa,” the Daily Beast reports.

“Two weeks after 19-year-old Edward Coristine was viciously assaulted during a carjacking in Washington D.C., the White House says it would consider giving the administration official a Presidential Medal of Freedom for his bravery.”

Russia Behind Hack of Federal Court Filing System

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“Investigators have uncovered evidence that Russia is at least in part responsible for a recent hack of the computer system that manages federal court documents, including highly sensitive records that might contain information that could reveal sources and people charged with national security crimes,” the New York Times reports.

“It is not clear what entity is responsible, whether an arm of Russian intelligence might be behind the intrusion or if other countries were also involved, which some of the people familiar with the matter described as a yearslong effort to infiltrate the system.”

Ken Paxton Wants Beto O’Rourke Jailed

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“Attorney General Ken Paxton has asked a Texas district court judge to jail former Rep. Beto O’Rourke over his fundraising pitches connected to the state’s intensifying redistricting battle,” Politico reports.

“Paxton’s request accused the Texas Democrat of violating a court order that the judge, Tarrant County’s Megan Fahey, issued last week that barred fundraising by O’Rourke and his nonprofit Powered by People intended to bankroll the efforts by Texas Democratic lawmakers to derail the redistricting effort.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

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“We had the island to ourselves which was very cool. I had never been to Disneyland. I thought it was awesome… Sorry to all the people that are Disneyland for the longer lines, but we had a very good time.”

— Vice President JD Vance, talking to Katie Miller, on Disneyland being shut down for his family vacation.

Trump’s Pay-to-Play Economy

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From the Financial Times editorial board:

“Donald Trump’s zeal for dealmaking knows no bounds. In the first 200 days of his second term, the US president has been in constant negotiations. He has threatened and imposed tariffs on America’s trading partners in a bid to extract various concessions. He has also wielded the threat of steep sector-specific tariffs to goad businesses at home and abroad into making billion-dollar investment commitments in the country.”

“But in recent days his quid pro quo approach has taken an even more ominous turn.”

Canadians Are Boycotting the U.S. in Droves

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“Canadian road trips to the United States have continued to decline for the seventh month in a row as the country continues its boycott of the U.S. According to Statistics Canada, automobile trips by Canadian residents returning from the U.S. dropped 36.9 percent year-over-year in July, while air travel from the U.S. declined 25.8 percent,” the Daily Beast reports.

“Meanwhile, international trips to other destinations from Canada have risen by 5.9 percent, suggesting Canadians are looking elsewhere for their summer vacations.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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