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Democrats Have Slim Lead in Race for House

July 18, 2026 at 8:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Americans prefer Democrats to Republicans in the congressional midterm elections by only a slim margin, but Democratic supporters are far more motivated to vote, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll.

“Because of partisan redistricting that favors Republicans this year, analysts estimate that Democrats need to win by three to four percentage points overall to gain a majority in the House. The poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by about that margin, 48 percent to 45 percent.”

“The blue advantage grows to eight points among those ‘absolutely certain to vote,’ with 53 percent of highly motivated voters supporting Democrats and 45 percent supporting Republicans.”

For Your Weekend Listening

July 18, 2026 at 8:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The latest episode of Trial Balloon is live.

Aging politicians, the backlash against AI data centers and the political costs of the war with Iran.

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Why Are Young Conservatives Posting About Nixon?

July 18, 2026 at 7:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “More than half-a-century after Watergate, conservative youth are discovering the aesthetic, and adopting the attitude, of the late Richard Nixon.”

“It’s a vibe. Videos that feature archival footage of the famously square 37th president over rap music from artists such as Drake and Biggie Smalls are going viral on Instagram and YouTube. Influencers sport ball caps, crew necks and fanny packs emblazoned with messages such as ‘Pretty Girls for Nixon’ and ‘Nixon Now More Than Ever.’ Hats stamped with ‘Nixonmaxxing’ sold out in a matter of hours earlier this year.”

Trump’s Voting Push Gets Cool GOP Reception

July 18, 2026 at 7:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“As President Trump wrapped up a prime-time address in which he rattled off ominous and at times outlandish assertions about U.S. election vulnerabilities, he repeated his demand that Congress pass strict voting restrictions that have been stalled in the Senate,” the New York Times reports.

“That plea, which Mr. Trump implied was the reason behind the Thursday night speech, appeared to have landed with a whimper among Republicans on Capitol Hill and in campaigns around the country. Most had little to say in its aftermath about an issue the president called among the most urgent facing the nation.”

“Democrats immediately seized on Mr. Trump’s address with a frenzy of talking points to accuse him of trying to undermine the upcoming midterm elections. But the speech drew a muted response from members of the president’s party.”

The Guardian: Trump speech lays groundwork for him to tamper with midterm results, critics warn.

Trump Loses Bid to Cancel Grants Retroactively

July 18, 2026 at 6:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A federal judge declared Friday that the Trump administration can’t cancel grants based on new rules or goals established after the fact — in a blow to its efforts to terminate billions of dollars already promised,” Politico reports.

Oil Prices Rise to Highest Level in a Month

July 18, 2026 at 6:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Oil prices jumped to their highest level in a month on Friday as renewed hostilities between the United States and Iran have caused shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz to slow to nearly a halt,” the New York Times reports.

“The price of Brent crude, the international benchmark, climbed about 4 percent, to about $88 a barrel, the highest since early June but still below its peak in April, when oil prices soared above $120.”

Israel and Its Backers Try to Save Its Reputation

July 18, 2026 at 5:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Israel and its allies are on a mission to rescue its battered reputation in the United States,” Politico reports.

”The Middle Eastern country and organizations that support it are publicly and privately fighting against an unusual barrage of bipartisan U.S. criticism. That wave of anti-Israel anger reached new heights this week as more than 100 House Democrats voted for a failed measure to end aid to Israel, while Vice President JD Vance accused Israel of waging an online offensive against him.”

Carville Says AOC Has No Shot at Democratic Nomination

July 18, 2026 at 3:18 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) has no shot at winning the Democratic presidential nomination if she decides to run in 2028, according to veteran political strategist James Carville,” the New York Post reports.

“The 81-year-old pundit argued the ‘Squad’ congresswoman’s politics are too far-left for Democratic presidential primary voters, who have historically backed more moderate candidates.”

Said Carville: “Let me say something very clearly: The Democrats — not even in ’72 — never nominate the most liberal candidate. But that’s the fantasy of the right wing, that the Democrats are going to nominate a socialist, urbanist, whatever.”

CNN: James Carville shares his advice to 2028 Democratic presidential hopefuls on what they should focus their messaging on.

TikTok Now Legal On Federal Devices

July 18, 2026 at 3:14 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Justice Department determined this week a federal law banning TikTok from government devices no longer applies to the social video app,” CBS News reports.

Leon Black Walked Out of Epstein Interview

July 17, 2026 at 8:34 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Billionaire investor Leon Black, who for years paid Jeffrey Epstein for tax and financial advice, is facing scrutiny over his relationship with the late convicted sex offender after walking out of a closed-door interview with House investigators last month,” PBS reports.

“Black refused to answer questions about nondisclosure agreements (NDAs) he signed with women less than an hour into questioning.”

CBS News: House panel probing Epstein asked Leon Black about birthday book, their friendship.

Trump Media Pitched Premium Feed for $100K

July 17, 2026 at 8:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump’s social media company has discussed charging Wall Street traders and investment firms as much as U.S.$100,000 a month for faster access to the U.S. president’s posts on his Truth Social platform, according to people familiar with the matter,” Reuters reports.

“Trump Media & Technology Group, which owns Truth Social, has in recent weeks also pitched a discounted plan of U.S.$60,000 per month if the firms sign up for a three-year plan.”

Mike Lindell Not Registered to Vote in Minnesota

July 17, 2026 at 8:27 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Mike Lindell is running for governor in Minnesota, but he isn’t even registered to vote there,” Mediaite reports.

“Lindell scored President Donald Trump’s endorsement on Wednesday and has maintained a small lead in the polls.”

AIPAC Blocks Funds to Democrats Over Aid Vote

July 17, 2026 at 8:24 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“AIPAC, the powerful pro-Israel lobbying group, appeared on Friday to have cut off contributions on its political web portal to House Democrats who voted this week to end U.S. aid to Israel, punishing them financially for a stance it strongly opposed,” the New York Times reports.

“That group included 15 House Democrats whom AIPAC had endorsed for re-election in November.”

Declassified Intel Contradicts Trump

July 17, 2026 at 6:18 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Newly-declassified documents touted by President Donald Trump during his address on election security Thursday cast doubt on some of his claims about ‘shocking vulnerabilities’ in the country’s election infrastructure,” ABC News reports.

“While Trump claimed during his address that the nation’s election systems are vulnerable to ‘hacking, exploitation, and foreign interference,’ the intelligence reports released by the White House concluded overall that the main infrastructure used to conduct elections in the United States ‘would be difficult to manipulate on a wide enough scale to alter the election outcome.'”

CNN: What Trump’s newly declassified documents do – and don’t – say about threats to U.S. elections.

Democrats’ Nebraska Senate Nominee Wants Off the Ballot

July 17, 2026 at 5:51 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Nebraska Senate candidate Cindy Burbank secured the Democratic nomination in May. On Friday, she submitted a request to the office of Nebraska’s secretary of state to be taken off the ballot — but a legal challenge could ensue,” NOTUS reports.

“Burbank’s campaign website says she ran to ensure that Sen. Pete Ricketts, the incumbent Republican, could not prop up a ‘stooge’ Democratic candidate in William Forbes, an anti-abortion pastor who voted for President Donald Trump. By announcing plans to drop out, Burbank hoped to clear a path for independent candidate Dan Osborn, who received the state Democratic party’s endorsement and has the best chance to beat Ricketts in November.”

Trump Threatens Canada Tariffs Over Wildfire Smoke

July 17, 2026 at 5:48 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump threatened to impose new tariffs on Canada Friday after the northern neighbor’s raging wildfires caused hazardous air quality from Minnesota to North Carolina,” the New York Post reports.

Said Trump: “We are holding Canada responsible for the fact that they are not properly maintaining their Forests, and Brush therein.”

U.S. Sends Dozens of Refueling Planes to Israel

July 17, 2026 at 5:23 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Trump administration notified Israel it is sending dozens more refueling planes to the country ahead of a potential expansion of military operations against Iran, three U.S. and Israeli officials said,” Axios reports.

“Why it matters: After he was presented with several new military plans in a Situation Room meeting Tuesday, President Trump is considering a massive offensive in Iran that would be wider in scope than the current strikes around the Strait of Hormuz.”

Bloomberg: Fears mount of U.S. and Iran escalation after sixth day of clashes.

Trump Failed to Learn the Lessons from Past Wars

July 17, 2026 at 4:47 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “In their early months, both wars were fueled by a novel military strategy that rose to prominence after the 1991 Persian Gulf war. It posited that by simultaneously attacking with precision weapons on multiple fronts, the U.S. military could paralyze its enemy and achieve a swift, low-casualty victory.”

“As the Iraq and Afghanistan wars dragged on, the military’s faith in this new approach began to wane. By 2007, a new theory of warfare — summed up in the Army’s counterinsurgency doctrine — took hold.”

“The strategy preached that too much firepower, poorly applied, would only produce more enemies.”

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About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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