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Democrats Have Slim Lead in Race for House

July 18, 2026 · 8:53 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Americans prefer Democrats to Republicans in the congressional midterm elections by only a slim margin, but Democratic supporters are far more motivated to vote, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll.

“Because of partisan redistricting that favors Republicans this year, analysts estimate that Democrats need to win by three to four percentage points overall to gain a majority in the House. The poll shows Democrats leading Republicans by about that margin, 48 percent to 45 percent.”

“The blue advantage grows to eight points among those ‘absolutely certain to vote,’ with 53 percent of highly motivated voters supporting Democrats and 45 percent supporting Republicans.”

2022 Campaign, House of Representatives, Polling

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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