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Trump vs. Musk, Round II

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Playbook: “Perhaps the most significant development of the night has been the eruption once again of the Trump-Musk feud that so enthralled D.C. last month. After a three-week hiatus from politics, Musk has spent much of the past 24 hours hammering away at the bill on X, renewing his criticisms from early June — and now Trump is hitting back hard.”

“Musk’s angry posting had spilled over into something potentially much more serious for Trump when he started directly threatening the GOP. Republicans who back Trump’s bill after preaching spending cuts will face Musk-funded opponents in primaries, he warned, and see their faces emblazoned on ‘Pinocchio’ posters drawn up by the world’s richest man. Conversely, Musk vowed to help fund serial GOP rebel Rep. Thomas Massie’s (R-KY) reelection effort. If other would-be-Republican-holdouts take all this seriously, might it embolden them too to vote against party lines?”

“Shortly before 1 a.m., Trump finally hit back with a long social media post of his own, seeking (again) to frame Musk’s opposition as a bid to cling on to EV subsidies. And the president rustled up a few threats of his own.”

Said Trump: “Elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history, by far, and without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back home to South Africa. No more Rocket launches, Satellites, or Electric Car Production, and our Country would save a FORTUNE. Perhaps we should have DOGE take a good, hard, look at this?”

Trump’s Agenda Teeters After All-Nighter in Senate

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“President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda is in a state of flux on Capitol Hill,” Punchbowl News reports.

“As of press time — roughly 19 hours into a vote-a-rama — Senate Majority Leader John Thune was struggling to round up enough GOP votes to pass the One Big Beautiful Bill. Sens. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) are opposed to the package, while Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Susan Collins (R-ME) haven’t yet been convinced to vote for the sprawling legislation. Republicans can’t afford to lose more than three votes.”

“Senate GOP leaders were dealt a major blow by the parliamentarian in the early morning hours that moved Murkowski into the ‘no’ column, causing a mad scramble on the Senate floor overnight.”

House Republicans Hate the Senate Bill

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Punchbowl News: “The Senate was supposed to be the easy part. This GOP reconciliation bill is going to hit even choppier waters in the House.”

“Speaker Mike Johnson is dealing with simmering frustration across the House Republican Conference.”

“Why? Because this bill does not fulfill the promises that the speaker made to the House Republican Conference. It cuts $1.5 trillion in exchange for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts – $500 billion short of the savings Johnson vowed to achieve in this scenario.”

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The Dollar Has Its Worst Start to a Year Since 1973

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New York Times: “The United States’ currency has weakened more than 10 percent over the past six months when compared with a basket of currencies from the country’s major trading partners. The last time the dollar weakened so much at the start of the year was 1973, after the United States had made a seismic shift that had ended the linking of the dollar to the price of gold.”

“This time the seismic event is President Trump’s efforts to remake the world order with an aggressive tariff push and a more isolationist foreign policy.”

California Rolls Back Landmark Environmental Law

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“California leaders on Monday rolled back a landmark law that was a national symbol of environmental protection before it came to be vilified as a primary reason for the state’s severe housing shortage and homelessness crisis,” the New York Times reports.

“For more than half a century, the law, the California Environmental Quality Act, has allowed environmentalists to slow suburban growth as well as given neighbors and disaffected parties a powerful tool to stop projects they found objectionable.”

Wall Street Journal: “Some environmentalists and other defenders of the longstanding law were furious, and warned that developers will now go unchecked.”

Kathy Hochul Leads 3 Potential Challengers

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New York Gov. Kathy Hochul (D) leads each of three potential Republican 2026 gubernatorial candidates by at least 20 points, according to a new Siena College Poll.

Hochul leads Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman 44% to 19%; she leads Rep. Elise Stefanik 47% to 24%; and she leads Rep. Mike Lawler 44% to 24%.

Said pollster Don Levy: “While the early leads seem large, Hochul is not hitting the ‘magic’ 51% mark against any of these opponents and in each matchup, between a quarter and a third of voters wasn’t able to choose between the two candidates.”

Murkowski Slams Brakes on Megabill

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“Senate Majority Leader John Thune’s ability to pass the ‘big, beautiful bill’ is hinging on Sen. Lisa Murkowski,” Politico reports.

“The Alaska senator has been the subject of an intense whip effort by GOP leaders over the past couple of hours as they try to offer her reassurances on Medicaid and food assistance. Thune, Finance Chair Mike Crapo and Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso talked to Murkowski on the floor for roughly an hour overnight. Thune and Murkowski huddled briefly in his office, and they were mum on details when they emerged shortly before 4 a.m.”

Wall Street Journal: “If Murkowski can’t be moved and she’s joined by two other GOP opponents, one option for Republicans would be to shrink or eliminate the debt-limit increase in the bill.”

Senate Republicans Still Don’t Have the Votes

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New York Times: “The Senate is moving very slowly in its vote marathon, and senators say some proposed changes to the bill are still being reviewed by the parliamentarian for compliance with budget rules. In a typical vote-a-rama, the votes are much more rapid-fire.”

“The pace suggests that Republican leaders don’t have all their votes lined up and that the process could go into Tuesday.”

Roy Cooper Leans Toward Senate Run

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“North Carolina Democrats are getting closer to the gift they’ve have been asking for all year, with former Gov. Roy Cooper (D) leaning toward a Senate run in the state President Trump has won three times,” Axios reports.

“The field is essentially frozen until Cooper and Lara Trump (R), the president’s daughter-in-law, decide if they want to be their party’s nominees.”

Musk Pledges to Form Third Party If Budget Bill Passes

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Elon Musk, on X:

“If this insane spending bill passes, the America Party will be formed the next day. Our country needs an alternative to the Democrat-Republican uniparty so that the people actually have a voice.”

And he added a threat:

“Every member of Congress who campaigned on reducing government spending and then immediately voted for the biggest debt increase in history should hang their head in shame! And they will lose their primary next year if it is the last thing I do on this Earth.”

Will Trump and Republicans Pay a Price?

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President Trump is pushing what may be the most politically reckless and socially devastating budget bill in several generations — a sweeping reconciliation package that combines tax cuts for the rich with deep cuts to essential programs that millions of Americans depend on.

The legislation would extend the 2017 tax cuts, heavily tilted toward the wealthy, while enacting new promises like eliminating taxes on tips — a largely symbolic gesture that masks the bill’s larger agenda.

It would also spend hundreds of billions to fund mass deportations and boost defense spending, while slashing core safety net programs.

Despite repeatedly vowing not to touch Medicaid, the bill would throw roughly 12 million low-income and disabled Americans off the program.

It would also deeply cut the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, better known as food stamps.

And the price tag? The bill would add an estimated $3.3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade — a staggering cost that voters appear to notice.

A new Washington Post-Ipsos poll finds Americans oppose the measure by nearly 2-to-1, with 63% saying the added debt is unacceptable.

Trump has long gambled that his political base will overlook the details — or believe his misleading claims about what’s in the legislation.

But Bloomberg notes the Senate version alone would cost the bottom 20% of taxpayers an average of $560 per year, while those at the top would gain more than $6,000 annually.

It’s actually the exact opposite of what Trump promised in the presidential campaign.

Whether Trump ultimately pays a political price is unclear.

If he doesn’t, it will be a striking demonstration of the enduring power of misinformation, Republican loyalty, and the Democratic Party’s failure to mount a compelling counteroffensive.

Another Bonus Quote of the Day

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“On the text chains, on the phone calls, everyone is complaining… There’s a few little provisions people will say something positive about, but no one is happy with the Senate version. It’s amazing to a lot of us — how did it get so much fucking worse?”

— A moderate House Republican, quoted by The Hill, expressing frustration with the Senate version of President Trump’ tax bill.

Trump and CBS in ‘Advanced’ Settlement Talks

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President Trump and CBS are in “advanced” settlement talks in the lawsuit over a “60 Minutes” interview with Kamala Harris, attorneys told a judge Monday, Variety reports.

The parties requested a stay in all proceedings in the case until Thursday, July 3, suggesting that a settlement could come soon.

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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