“President Vladimir Putin kept an anxious world guessing about whether he plans to invade Ukraine, announcing on Monday that he would decide by the end of the day whether to recognize the independence of two breakaway regions of Ukraine,” the New York Times reports.

“With Russian state media issuing an ominous drumbeat of unsubstantiated reports about aggression by Ukraine — which U.S. officials have warned Moscow would use as a pretext for a military intervention — Mr. Putin used a televised meeting of his Security Council to declare that a peace agreement for the Russia-backed separatist territories was in effect dead.”

Washington Post: Russian Security Council calls on Putin to recognize two Moscow-backed breakaway regions in Ukraine.

“President Biden’s administration has prepared an initial package of sanctions against Russia that includes barring U.S. financial institutions from processing transactions for major Russian banks,” Reuters reports.

“The U.S. has told allies that any Russian invasion of Ukraine would potentially see it target multiple cities beyond the capital Kyiv,” Bloomberg reports.

“Cities that could also come under attack include Kharkiv in the northeast and Odessa and Kherson in the south, said the people, all Western officials who asked not to be identified talking about such sensitive matters. They did not provide details on the intelligence they said underlined these calculations.”

New York Times: “If he strikes to take the whole country in a single blow — the approach that senior American military and intelligence officials and many outside analysts now think is the most likely — it could provoke the largest, most violent battle for European territory since the Nazi surrender in 1945.”

Reuters: “Russia’s FSB security service said on Monday a shell fired from Ukrainian territory had completely destroyed a border guard post in Russia’s Rostov region but caused no casualties.”

“Ukraine denied responsibility for the incident, which took place at a moment of extreme tension between the two countries as Russia continues to deny statements from the United States and its allies that it could invade Ukraine at any time.”

Stephen Collinson: “Even if the apparent agreement for a summit holds — and there was no immediate comment from the Kremlin on Sunday night — Biden will be taking a significant gamble.”

“Hawkish Republicans are sure to accuse him of appeasing the Russian strongman and of rewarding his aggression in holding Ukraine hostage. If a meeting with Putin fails and an invasion follows regardless, Biden will open himself up to charges of weakness.”

“Any summit that is not comprehensively choreographed for success beforehand is a political high-wire act. And Biden can ill-afford blows to his prestige, with his approval rankings sliding and after his claims to statesmanship were dented by the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan last year.”

David Leonhardt: “A Russian invasion of Ukraine seems likely to involve one of the world’s largest militaries launching an unprovoked ground invasion of a neighboring country. The apparent goal would be an expansion of regional dominance, either through annexation or the establishment of a puppet government.”

“Few other conflicts since World War II fit this description. Some of the closest analogies are the Soviet Union’s invasion of Afghanistan in the 1970s, Czechoslovakia in the 1960s and Hungary in the 1950s — as well as Vladimir Putin’s 2014 annexation of Crimea. The U.S., for its part, invaded Panama in the 1980s and used the C.I.A. to overthrow an elected government in Guatemala in the 1950s. Of course, it also launched several faraway wars, in Iraq, Vietnam and elsewhere.”

“But the world’s most powerful countries have rarely used force to expand their boundaries or set up client states in their region.”

“Belarus announced Sunday that Russian forces would remain in the country after massive military drills ended, in a move that opposition figures said surrendered the country’s independence to Moscow without a shot being fired,” the Washington Post reports.

Australia reopened its international border for the first time in nearly two years on Monday, Axios reports.