Nate Silver looks at Newt Gingrich’s endorsement by the New Hampshire Union Leader and notes that past candidates endorsed by the newspaper finished with an 11-percentage-point improvement from what they averaged in the polls when the endorsement was made.
“If you do take the results of the regression analysis to be tantamount
to a prediction, they imply that New Hampshire could be quite close,
with Mr. Romney finishing with 36 percent of the vote and Mr. Gingrich
at 30 percent. What I think is fair to say is that Mr. Gingrich would at
least have a shot at winning New Hampshire if he also wins Iowa, a
result that could be devastating to Mr. Romney’s campaign.”