A new Democracy Fund + UCLA Nationscape poll finds Joe Biden leading Donald Trump nationally by 11 points, 50% to 39%.
Biden Seizes on Bolton Book
“John Bolton’s claim in an explosive new book that President Trump urged China’s Xi Jinping to help him win reelection could undermine his campaign’s effort to portray Democratic rival Joe Biden as soft on Beijing,” the AP reports.
“Biden’s top aides moved quickly on Thursday to argue that it’s Trump who has taken a weak approach to the rising superpower. They seized on accusations from Bolton, Trump’s former national security adviser, that the president continually kowtowed to Xi and ignored human rights abuses while trying to get his foreign counterpart’s assistance with domestic politics.”
Bolton Has Few Friends Left
Politico: “A day after excerpts from his bombshell new book emerged excoriating President Trump, the former national security adviser has managed to turn everyone against him.”
“Republicans say he’s a disgruntled sensationalist who’s merely trying to make money off his book. And Democrats, once buoyed by Bolton’s turn against Trump, now say he is ‘unpatriotic’ for documenting his claims in a book rather than testifying before Congress during Trump’s impeachment inquiry.”
State Budgets Are a Wreck
The Economist: “State tax revenues in the United States collapsed in April, falling on average by half, according to the Urban Institute, a think-tank. Demands on spending soared because the states are responsible for much of America’s spending on public health, unemployment and policing. By some calculations, state-budget deficits will reach a quarter of revenues in the coming fiscal year—or would do, if most states had not bound themselves by law to run balanced budgets.”
“So instead of vast deficits, the states will have to make savage cuts to public services in the midst of a recession and pandemic. Through no fault of their own, their budgets are out of control and are about to hit the buffers.”
GOP Lawmaker Pulls Endorsement In Georgia
Rep. Jody Hice (R-GA), a member of the House Freedom Caucus, took back his endorsement of Marjorie Taylor Greene in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District race, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reports,
“Hice’s statement is significant because the caucus, which represents the House’s most conservative members, helped recruit Greene to run for this seat and has poured nearly $200,000 into her campaign.”
“Hice joins other Republicans in criticizing racist, anti-Muslim and anti-Semitic remarks that Greene has made over the years and which were detailed in a Politico article.”
Tulsa Puts Curfew In Place Ahead of Trump Rally
A curfew was implemented for areas around the BOK Center ahead of President Trump’s scheduled campaign rally, Tulsa World reports.
From Mayor G.T. Bynum (R): “I have received information from the Tulsa Police Department and other law enforcement agencies that shows that individuals from organized groups who have been involved in destructive or violent behavior in other states are planning to travel to the City of Tulsa for purposes of causing unrest in and around the rally.”
Biden Has a Wider Path to 270
The Cook Political Report updates its electoral map forecast and it’s now exactly the same as the consensus map.
Key changes: “Michigan moves from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, while Iowa and Ohio move from Likely Republican to a more competitive Lean Republican category.”
“This means there are 248 Electoral votes in the Lean to Solid Democratic category and 204 Electoral votes in Lean to Solid Republican. There are 86 Electoral votes in Toss Up. To win the Electoral College, Biden would need to win just 26 percent of those Toss Up states/districts, while Trump would need to win over 75 percent of them. In other words, Trump has little room for error, while Biden has a wider path to winning.”
GOP Fears Biden’s Low-Key Campaign Is Working
“Joe Biden hasn’t held a press conference in 77 days but Democrats aren’t feeling much pressure to put the presumptive nominee front and center at the moment,” The Hill reports.
“Biden has, for the most part, kept a low profile throughout the coronavirus pandemic and weeks of demonstrations for racial justice across the country. Over that time, Biden has built up a healthy lead in the polls and emerged as the heavy favorite for now to be the next president.”
“Meanwhile, Republicans have watched with growing alarm as President Trump’s polling numbers have fallen to frightening new lows for an incumbent.”
Pompeo Calls Bolton a ‘Traitor’
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has hit out at John Bolton, calling his former colleague a “traitor” and accusing Donald’s Trump’s ex-national security adviser of “lies” in a new memoir, the Financial Times reports.
In a statement headlined “I was in the room too,” Pompeo said it was “both sad and dangerous that John Bolton’s final public role is that of a traitor who damaged America by violating his sacred trust with its people.”
Merkel Warns of Very Tough Times Ahead
“German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned her fellow leaders that the European Union is facing its deepest recession since World War II and that will lead to very, very difficult times indeed,” Bloomberg reports.
“She wondered whether people have understood exactly what this means and cautioned that the EU has every interest in having a recovery plan in place by the end of the summer ahead of events like the U.S. election in the fall.”
Trump Floats ‘Complete Decoupling’ From China
President Trump said the U.S. could pursue a “complete decoupling from China” in response to unspecified conditions, his most forceful statement yet on the souring ties with Beijing, Bloomberg reports.
In a tweet Thursday, Trump refuted comments a day earlier by U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who said a full decoupling of the world’s two biggest economies was not “a reasonable policy option.”
Cuomo Considers Quarantine on Those from Florida
New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said that he’s considering imposing a quarantine on travelers arriving in the state from places like Florida where coronavirus cases have spiked, CNBC reports.
Said Cuomo: “I haven’t made a decision yet, but I have had experts advise me of that. It is a real concern… It could happen, and it’s something I’m considering.”
Why Analysts Won’t Write Off Trump Yet
Stephen Collinson: “Less than five months before Election Day, with the nation battling concurrent crises, every conventional political indicator is flashing red for Trump. But every conventional political indicator has always been flashing red for Trump — and he’s never been defeated.”
“If Trump loses in November, these last few weeks may come to be remembered as the moment that the Trump train finally careened off the rails for good. Yet among Democrats and those who don’t support the President, the fear that he will a second term anyway is palpable. The man who said he could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue, shoot someone and get away with it, has created a supernatural political aura exactly five years after he descended his golden escalator in Trump Tower and turned American politics on its head.”
“Part of the uncertainty about Trump’s prospects stems from the extraordinary nature of the times. The pandemic and the consequent economic disaster is unlikely to lead to predictable or necessarily logical consequences. Taking the mood of the country is even more complicated than normal since most Americans have been shut at home for weeks. Who knows who is even going to feel sufficiently safe to vote in November if it comes down to a choice between health and exercising a democratic right?”
Florida Is New Epicenter for Coronavirus
“Florida added another 3,207 coronavirus cases Thursday, shattering the previous daily record as the state emerges as an alarming hot spot among places grappling with a resurgence of the disease,” the Tallahassee Democrat reports.
CNN reports the Sunshine State has “all the markings of the next large epicenter of coronavirus transmission,” and risks being the “worst it has ever been,” according to projections from a model by scientists at the University of Pennsylvania.
Bolton Says Trump Effort to Stop Book Is Too Late
“John Bolton moved late Thursday to dismiss the Trump administration’s lawsuit to stop publication of his book, contending that the Justice Department legal drive violates the First Amendment and is — at this point — entirely futile,” Politico reports.
“The former national security adviser’s first formal legal response to the government’s suit landed just hours before a federal judge is slated to hear arguments on the attempt to keep Bolton’s book from hitting shelves.”
“But Bolton argues the effort is a naked attempt to prevent him from revealing embarrassing information about President Donald Trump and that, at any rate, it’s much too late: some 200,000 copies of the book have been bound and shipped to booksellers, and nearly every major media outlet in the United States has a copy.”
Early Data Show No Uptick In Outbreaks from Protests
Wall Street Journal: “Early coronavirus testing data from a handful of U.S. cities and states suggest that recent protests against racial injustices haven’t yet led to a marked uptick in new cases. Public-health officials warn that the data is still preliminary, however, and protest-related cases could still rise.”
Trump Says Mail-In Voting Could Cost Him Re-Election
“President Trump called mail-in voting the biggest threat to his reelection and said his campaign’s multimillion-dollar legal effort to block expanded ballot access could determine whether he wins a second term,” Politico reports.
“The president’s assertion that mail-in voting will endanger his reelection comes as states across the country are rushing to accommodate remote voting in response to the coronavirus pandemic. Millions of voters could be disenfranchised if they decide to stay home on Election Day rather than risk contracting the virus at crowded polling stations.”
“But Trump and his campaign argue, despite a lack of evidence, that widespread mail-in voting will benefit Democrats and invite fraud. The Republican Party is spending tens of millions of dollars on a multi-front legal battle.”
Let’s Make Juneteenth a National Holiday
Today is Juneteenth, recognizing the day in 1865 when Union soldiers landed in Galveston, Texas and told slaves there that they were free and that the Civil War had ended.
Currently, 47 states recognize the date as a state holiday, but legislation to declare it a national holiday has repeatedly stalled in Congress.