“Russia has gathered 50,000 troops, including some of its most battle-hardened forces, on Ukraine’s northern border for an imminent offensive,” the Times of London reports.
Trump’s Trade War Derailed
Paul Krugman: “Presumably the Trumpists will try to undo this judgment, one way or another — exploiting other loopholes in the law, maybe trying to bully the Court into submission, maybe just defying the Court altogether. But this is a huge political defeat, and Trump has nobody to blame except his own overreach.”
“You can bet that trade negotiators around the world are snickering, and maybe celebrating with TACOs for lunch.”
Abigail Spanberger Launches First TV Ad
Former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-VA) “is launching her first TV ad of the 2025 Virginia governor’s race, detailing her background as she ramps up her campaign in one of the most closely watched elections of the year,” NBC News reports.
Trump Has Let Allies Avoid Centuries of Prison Time
Philip Bump: “Comparing their original sentences with the dates of sentencing and clemency, I calculate that Trump has wiped away more than 700 years of prison time that convicted individuals were otherwise slated to serve. That includes more than 600 years of prison time to which Jan. 6 rioters had been sentenced — including a number of the most violent actors and individuals affiliated with extreme right-wing groups.”
What Trump Wants In an Iran Deal
President Trump said he envisions a nuclear deal with Iran that would allow the destruction of “whatever we want” in the country including labs, a version of an inspections regime that is likely to be rejected by Tehran, Bloomberg reports.
Trump briefly outlined his vision of a deal that is “very strong, where we can go in with inspectors. We can take whatever we want. We can blow up whatever we want. But nobody getting killed.”
Elon Musk Works to Rehab His Image
Axios: “By scaling back the time and money he spends on politics, Musk is seeking to claw back the credibility he torched during his toxic tenure in Washington.”
“That won’t be easy: SpaceX and Tesla both saw their brand reputations crater over the past year, with the latter enduring violent protests and a steep drop in sales as a result of Musk’s activism.”
“Still, Musk is clear-eyed about the task ahead — and has already taken steps to distance himself from Trump in a rare series of interviews over the last several days.”
Nonetheless, Playbook points out that Musk “failed on his own terms, getting nowhere near his much-vaunted $1 trillion savings target and making little impact on America’s debt and deficit crises.”
Tariff Ruling Creates Chaos on Top of Chaos
“An obscure federal court blew up the cornerstone of President Trump’s economic agenda last night, unleashing more chaos on the global economy and all but wiping out his negotiating leverage with trading partners,” Axios reports.
“At least for now, it turns out the legal system — not the bond market, nor weak economic indicators — is the biggest restraint on Trump’s trade agenda.”
Can Ruben Gallego Lead Democrats Out?
Freshman Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) “was a rare bright spot for Democrats in an otherwise bleak 2024. In a year when Donald Trump won all seven battleground states and Democrats lost three Senate seats, Gallego defeated Republican Kari Lake in Arizona by 2.4 points—despite Trump carrying the state by 5.5 points in the presidential race,” The Dispatch reports.
“It’s little wonder, then, that Gallego’s name is routinely tossed around as a plausible 2028 presidential candidate.”
Steny Hoyer Gets a Challenger Who Says He’s Too Old
“Rep. Steny Hoyer has drawn a primary challenger with a pointed message about the 85-year-old: The incumbent Maryland Democrat is too old to run again,” Politico reports.
“Harry Jarin, a 35-year-old volunteer firefighter and emergency services consultant who once competed on Jeopardy!, launched his campaign Thursday because he said Democrats need to ‘stop treating congressional seats like lifetime appointments.’”
Ronna McDaniel Tries to Make Michigan Red
“Ronna McDaniel is getting back into the political arena to lead a new organization funded by the wealthy DeVos family, heirs to the Amway fortune, that will try to make the battleground state of Michigan more conservative,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The former Republican National Committee chairwoman has mostly been on the sidelines of national politics since NBC News canceled her on-air-analyst contract in March 2024 in what became a media kerfuffle.”
“The month prior, she was pushed out of the RNC by Donald Trump as it became clear he would be the party’s 2024 presidential nominee.”
A Very Sorted House
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Two of the three major ingredients that went into the huge numerical House gains that the winning side made in the 2010 and 2018 midterms are not present for Democrats in 2026.”
“One of those, however, is that the opposition party started those cycles with far fewer seats than the Democrats hold now, which is hardly a bad thing for them. But that should also inform our expectations about the size of the gain Democrats could make in 2026 and how it would compare to midterm history.”
“The other is that the House is much more sorted along partisan lines now than it was in either 2010 or even 2018, meaning that the party control of House seats is better aligned with how districts vote at the presidential level. This level of sorting also likely helps explain why Republicans in 2022 were able to flip the House, but only made modest gains in doing so—and also why Republicans can plausibly argue that they could hold onto the House next year.”
“If the House remains so sorted along presidential voting lines, it stands to reason that large numerical swings in House seats would become rarer, even as the House majority itself would often be up for grabs.”
Tariff Decision Is a Massive Defeat for Trump
Playbook: “The judges — appointed by Ronald Reagan, Barack Obama and Trump himself, since you ask — unanimously agreed that the president exceeded his authority by claiming America’s long-standing trade deficit was a ‘national emergency’ which gave him tariff powers normally left to Congress.”
“Make no mistake: This is a crushing defeat for Trump, who has repeatedly said he wants to build a new economic model based on his trade tariffs. Instead, the court has struck them down right in the middle of tense negotiations with the EU, China and other key trading partners who had only been forced to the negotiating table by the tariff threat. It’s unclear if those talks will even continue.”
Trump Gives Putin Another Two Weeks
CNN: “Since at least the end of April, President Donald Trump has been telling reporters he will decide what to do in Ukraine in two weeks, using the timeframe over and over to suggest he is close to a final assessment on how to proceed.”
“It is not a new tactic. Trump has been setting two-week deadlines since at least the start of his first term in 2017 — for policy plans, long-awaited decisions or unspecified major announcements. Many never arrived.”
The New York Times notes that after “four months of empty threats against Mr. Putin, it remained to be seen whether Mr. Trump’s latest harsh comments were an indicator of a new aggressive phase against Russia or another fakeout.”
Musk Hasn’t Followed Through on $100 Million Promise
New York Times: “Mr. Musk was the biggest known political spender in the 2024 election, and he told Mr. Trump’s advisers this year that he would give $100 million to groups controlled by the president’s team before the 2026 midterms. As of this week, the money hasn’t come in yet.”
Fallout From U.S. Aid Withdrawal
ProPublica: “American diplomats in at least two countries have recently delivered internal reports to Washington that reflect a grim new reality taking hold abroad: The Trump administration’s sudden withdrawal of foreign aid is bringing about the violence and chaos that many had warned would come.”
Trump Pardons Former Connecticut Governor
Twice-convicted former Connecticut Gov. John G. Rowland (R) received a pardon from President Donald Trump today, the Hartford Courant reports.
Trump Tariffs Ruled Illegal by Federal Judicial Panel
“A panel of federal judges on Wednesday blocked President Trump from imposing some of his steepest tariffs on China and other U.S. trading partners, finding in two cases that he vastly overstepped his ability to issue those expansive duties under federal law,” the New York Times reports.
“The ruling, by the U.S. Court of International Trade, delivered an early yet significant setback to Mr. Trump in his campaign to strike a series of agreements that reorient the nation’s trading relationships, setting up a legal fight that could soon reach the Supreme Court.”
Wall Street Journal: “Congress typically holds responsibility over tariffs but has delegated many powers to the president over decades. When he imposed the levies in April, Trump said the ongoing U.S. trade deficit had created a national emergency that has hobbled the economy and posed an unusual and extraordinary threat.”
Paul Krugman: “The thing is, it has been obvious all along that Trump’s use of the 1977 International Economic Emergency Powers Act to justify Smoot-Hawley level tariffs was a massive abuse of power. I mean, since when are 4 percent unemployment and 2.5 percent inflation an emergency justifying the reversal of 90 years of policy? But I guess I just assumed that things like that didn’t matter anymore.”
Elon Musk Leaves Government Post
“Elon Musk is leaving his government role as a top adviser to President Donald Trump after spearheading efforts to reduce and overhaul the federal bureaucracy,” the AP reports.
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