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Tariff Shock Reverberates in the Bond Market

May 11, 2025 at 7:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “Since April 2, declines in the prices of longer-term Treasurys have driven up the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to around 4.37%, according to Tradeweb. That climb happened even while shorter-term yields were falling, dragged down by bets that the Federal Reserve will respond to a slowing economy by cutting interest rates.”

“The unusual divergence, known in Wall Street parlance as a ‘steepening twist,’ is already challenging policymakers and raising borrowing costs for consumers.”

Ukraine Insists Truce Must Come Before Peace Talks

May 11, 2025 at 7:16 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Vladimir Putin to implement a full cease-fire starting Monday in order to facilitate talks on an end to the war, countering the Russian president’s offer that said talks should come first,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Putin a day earlier rebuffed the latest cease-fire ultimatum from Kyiv and its Western allies, instead calling for direct talks aimed at achieving his goal of weakening Ukraine and pushing back NATO.”

“European leaders had threatened new sanctions on Russia if it didn’t sign up to an unconditional 30-day pause in fighting backed by President Trump.”

Susan Collins Still Hasn’t Said If She’s Running

May 11, 2025 at 6:50 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Democrats have one big hope as they scramble to find a top-tier recruit against GOP Sen. Susan Collins in Maine: Maybe she won’t run at all,” CNN reports.

“Collins, the lone New England Senate Republican, who is at the peak of her influence over 28 years in the chamber, has fended off one Democratic foe after another in hard-fought races to hang on to her seat. And again, her seat is pivotal in the Democrats’ uphill climb back to the majority.”

“But Collins, 72, has yet to make a formal announcement that she’ll run in what will almost certainly be a bruising battle for a sixth term. And high-profile potential Democratic candidates, like Gov. Janet Mills and Rep. Jared Golden, are weighing their next moves as they await the veteran senator’s final decision.”


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Judges Say Pizza Deliveries Are Meant to Intimidate

May 11, 2025 at 6:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Federal judges say unsolicited pizza deliveries to jurists’ homes that began in February may number in the hundreds across at least seven states, prompting increased security concerns and a demand from a Senate leader for a Justice Department investigation,” the Washington Post reports.

“Many of the deliveries have gone to judges presiding over lawsuits challenging the Trump administration’s policies.”

Minority Voters Pull Back from Trump

May 11, 2025 at 6:44 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Ron Brownstein: “In 2024, Trump improved his performance among some big voting blocs that have historically favored Democrats, including Latinos, younger men, non-White voters without a college degree, and, to some extent, Black men. Trump’s advances generated exuberant predictions from an array of right-leaning analysts that he had achieved a lasting realignment and cemented the GOP’s hold on voters of all races without a college degree.”

“But the flurry of polls 100 days into Trump’s second term suggests that cement has not hardened as much as some allies anticipated. Across multiple surveys, Trump’s overall job approval rating has fallen below his 2024 vote share with these key groups, and they are consistently giving him even lower marks for his handling of the economy, particularly inflation.”

AOC Isn’t Ruling Anything Out

May 11, 2025 at 6:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “Ocasio-Cortez hasn’t made a decision on her future but isn’t ruling anything out, including primarying the Senate minority leader or even a presidential bid.”

“After bruising losses in November, Democrats have struggled to consolidate around a strategy to take on President Trump, even as voters across the ideological spectrum beg them to do more. Ocasio-Cortez has emerged as one of the party’s leading voices. But some Democrats worry she will turn off the centrist voters they need to win competitive races.”

Republicans’ Partial Tax Plan Breaks the Bank

May 10, 2025 at 9:48 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“An early version of the House GOP’s tax plan would cost nearly $5 trillion, according to a new estimate from Congress’s non-partisan tax scorekeeper,” Politico reports.

“The cost far exceeds what is permitted by the budget resolution Republicans adopted earlier this year, which set the parameters for the massive package of tax cuts and extensions, energy policy and border security investments the party wants to pass in the coming weeks.”

Pete Hegseth Plagiarized Parts of His College Thesis

May 10, 2025 at 9:24 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A review of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s thesis by The Daily Princetonian, in consultation with three experts on plagiarism, found eight instances of uncredited material, sham paraphrasing, and verbatim copying in his senior thesis.

Democrats Looking for ‘Safest White Boy’ for 2028

May 10, 2025 at 5:12 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-TX) said Democrats are eying the “safest white boy” ahead of the 2028 election, The Wrap reports.

Said Crockett: “It is, it is this fear that the people within the party, within the primary system, will have about voting for a woman because every time we voted for a woman, we’ve lost.”

She added: “So far. And I think that that’s a natural fear because we just want to win. So there’s a lot of people that are like, you know what? Like, let’s go find the safest white boy we can find. I mean, I’m just saying.”

DNC Chair Doubles Down on Ultimatum for Hogg

May 10, 2025 at 4:41 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Democratic National Convention Chair Ken Martin on Saturday doubled down on his ultimatum for rogue Vice Chair David Hogg: Take a neutrality pledge or step down,” Politico reports.

Said Martin: “Party officers have one job: to be fair stewards of a process that invites every Democrat to the table — regardless of personal views or allegiances.”

Democratic Senator Says GOP Trying to Woo Fetterman

May 10, 2025 at 4:37 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) said Republicans are trying to pull John Fetterman to the right and argued Democrats should keep the Pennsylvania senator in their corner as he faces mounting questions over his health and shifting political persona,” Politico reports.

Said Gallego: “There needs to be space for Fetterman and for other senators in our caucus. He still is a senator that fights for working-class people. We may not be 100 percent in agreement a lot of times in a lot of areas, but we don’t have to be.”

U.S. and China Prep for Second Day of Trade Talks

May 10, 2025 at 4:35 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Marathon conversations here between U.S. and China officials came to an end Saturday, with more talks scheduled for Sunday over the continuing trade war between the countries,“ the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The talks, which were led on the American side by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, spanned at least eight hours and concluded without an announced deal.”

Quote of the Day

May 10, 2025 at 4:23 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“If you can survive the Hill, you can survive in prison. The Hill can be a treacherous place, no question about it.”

— Former Rep. Bob Ney (R-OH), who served a 17-month prison sentence, quoted by Politico, offering advice to former Rep. George Santos (R-NY).

House Republicans Nix Higher Tax Bracket

May 10, 2025 at 1:35 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jake Sherman: “Sources tell me that House Republicans are not expected to pursue a new tax bracket for individuals earning $2.5 million and couples earning $5 million.”

“Trump had asked for this, but then said he didn’t want them to pursue it but he would be fine if they did. So I guess they took that as a cue to not do it.”

ICE Threatens to Arrest Democratic Lawmakers

May 10, 2025 at 12:19 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Democratic members of Congress who were part of a scuffle with law enforcement officers at an ICE facility in New Jersey may face arrests,” Axios reports.

“It would be a major escalation in the Trump administration’s arrests of politicians and other public servants, including the mayor of Newark and a judge in Milwaukee.”

Trump Is Obsessed With the Midterms

May 10, 2025 at 11:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rachel Bade: “Not even three months into his second term, the president is already hyper-engaged in the fight to keep the GOP’s majorities in Congress. Far from writing off the House or Senate, he’s bullish about defying history and keeping Democrats away from committee gavels and subpoena powers, according to five Republicans I’ve spoken to, including several close Trump confidants.”

“He’s rolling out early endorsements in hopes of forestalling messy primary fights that could divert precious resources from the general election campaigns. He’s making recruitment calls and buttonholing other Republicans about how he can best use his political muscle. And he’s continuing to raise boatloads of money to shell out in 2026.”

Trump Expands His Power in the GOP Money World

May 10, 2025 at 11:39 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “For years, the super PACs allied with House and Senate Republicans have been some of the most powerful and independent fiefs in American politics, raising and spending hundreds of millions of dollars in each election.”

“But even though Mr. Trump is in his second term and cannot run again, he is quickly bringing them inside his sphere of influence — a sign that his dominance over the party could endure well into the future.”

The Trade Conflict Xi Jinping Has Been Waiting For

May 10, 2025 at 11:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “In April 2020, long before President Trump launched a trade war that would shake the global economy, China’s top leader held a meeting with senior Communist Party officials and laid out his vision for turning the tables on the United States in a confrontation…”

“Put simply: China should dominate supplies of things the world needs, to make its adversaries think twice about using tariffs or trying to cut China off.”

Wall Street Journal: What to watch during the U.S.-China talks this weekend.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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