FiveThirtyEight: “We looked at how 16 battleground states have voted in the last five presidential elections to see how they might go in 2020.”

Harry Enten: “We got about about maybe 15% of voters watching this stuff. Most of whom are hardcore partisans in one of the most stable races ever. And little sign the horserace significantly moved after the DNC. This idea that any of the DNC/RNC activities will move voters is untested.”

William Galston: “The president hasn’t done much to expand the narrow base that gave him only 46% of the popular vote in 2016, but this is not necessarily a formula for defeat. As an analysis by Brookings Institution demographer William Frey shows, more than 60% of the 2016 non-voters in the ‘Blue Wall; states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania were whites without college degrees. Compared with 2004, when George W. Bush won re-election, turnout rates among these voters, fell by 7 percentage points in Wisconsin, 5.7 points in Michigan, and 2.7 points in Pennsylvania.”

“Restoring their turnout to 2004 levels could allow President Trump to repeat his 2016 Midwestern success, even if Democrats do better in the suburbs and large cities. He could eke an Electoral College majority even if he loses Florida, where he now trails Mr. Biden.”

“Mr. Trump has other strengths. The sharp economic downturn has reduced but not eliminated the advantage he holds over his challenger on the management of the economy.”

New York Times: “For Democrats, who rely on Black voters to power their electoral advantages in America’s urban centers, the difference between good and great Black voter turnout is often dependent on how many Black men go to the polls. Black women are the party’s most loyal demographic base — often referred to as its backbone — but motivated Black male voters were a crucial distinction between former President Barack Obama’s record-setting Black turnout in 2008 and 2012 and the diminished performance of Hillary Clinton in 2016.”

First Read: “According to exit polls, Black men have only made up about 5 percent of the electorate in presidential elections since 2008.”

“But the share captured by Democrats has been shrinking. In 2008, 95 percent backed Obama. In 2012, that was down to 87 percent. In 2016? Down to 80 percent.”

Nathan Gonzales: “Confidence in the analysis that Democrats are poised to win in November comes from the depth and breadth of the data. Biden not only leads Trump in the national polls, but in most of the individual battleground states that will decide the Electoral College. And Trump continues to struggle to reach his 2016 performance in key congressional districts around the country.”

“It’s hard to identify any state or district where Trump is performing at least as well as he did four years ago, let alone better. And that’s critical considering 2016, when Trump was just the right candidate at just the right time against just the right opponent winning by just enough in just the right states to win.”

Andrew Slack notes if you rearrange the letters in “Republican National Convention” it also spells “Con Vulnerable Nation Into Panic.”

The FiveThirtyEight forecast shows Joe Biden’s win probability down to 70%, after some mediocre polls for him this morning. He had been hovering around 73% for much of the last week.

Nate Silver: “First, Biden does not appear to be getting much of a convention bounce. He’s at +8.8 in our national poll average (still quite good) but that’s only up from +8.4 before the conventions.”

“Second, Biden has gotten some not-so-spectacular swing state polls lately. His lead in Florida is down to +5.4 and in Pennsylvania to +5.8, which remain the most likely tipping-point states. Not bad, but the Electoral College – popular vote gap would appear to be widening a bit.”

A big caveat: “This is not based on the world’s most spectacular set of polling, especially at the state level. And almost all of it is online panels, with a robopoll thrown in here and there; basically no live caller polls since the pre-convention round from ~10-14 days ago.”